Friday’s campaign round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* More intra-party reconciliation: “As we first reported here, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wooed top Clinton donors at a private presentation in Manhattan yesterday, and the early indications are that such efforts are paying off. Top Hillary supporter Ed Rendell is hosting a fundraiser for Obama tonight in Philadelphia. My sense from talking to Hillary donors is that from their point of view, there’s just no percentage in not getting behind Obama, and while there’s definitely still a bit of grumbling in these circles, they’re basically falling into line.”

* Even more intra-party reconciliation: “The Barack Obama campaign continued its effort to reach out to women and supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) Wednesday night with a dinner for female House members. The dinner, at the home of Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), was attended by 28 female members. More than half of the women were former Clinton supporters, said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), a national co-chairwoman for Obama.”

* Howard Dean is staying atop the DNC, but the Obama campaign is enveloping much of the party’s apparatus: “Barack Obama’s move to merge key elements of the Democratic National Committee into his own campaign’s Chicago headquarters appears aimed at the goal of a centralized and united Democratic Party. The shift of the DNC’s political and field organizing operations to Chicago will consolidate the Democratic presidential campaign apparatus more than in either of the last two cycles, when staffers at DNC headquarters overlapped – and occasionally competed – with aides to Al Gore and John Kerry.”

* Don’t look now, but North Carolina is looking competitive — Rasmussen shows McCain leading Obama by just two points, 45% to 43%.

* Great point by Rick Hasen: “…McCain says that there’s nothing he can do to stop 527 attacks on Sen. Obama. As TPM notes: ‘Obama’s finance team has explicitly instructed donors not to give money to those groups. McCain, by contrast, seems to be saying that he can’t control the groups on his side.’ Bad news for Sen. Obama? Not necessarily. It has been clear for some time that Sen. Obama rationally would not choose to opt into public financing for the general election, and now he has a reason not to do it.”

* MSNBC makes a fascinating observation about general election match-ups from 2004, when the polls were largely spot-on about Bush’s lead over Kerry — but Bush’s lead was never as big as Obama’s lead is now.

* Speaking of polls, Steve M. offers a key observation that has gone unnoticed by the talking heads: “Not only is [Obama’s] 7-point lead among white women better than what Gore and Kerry accomplished (both lost the white female vote), it’s actually slightly better than Bill Clinton did when he won the presidency handily in 1996 — his lead among white women was 5 points, according to CNN’s exit poll (48%-43%).”

* Obama probably won’t be able to compete in Oklahoma, where he now trails by 14 points, 52% to 38%. Given that Bush won Oklahoma by 32 four years ago, I’m actually surprised Obama is as close as he is.

* Yglesias raised an interesting angle yesterday (in response to a commenter) that I hadn’t considered before: if Mitt Romney is added to McCain’s ticket, it would likely boost Mormon turnout in battleground states like Nevada and Colorado.

* There was some recent evidence that Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) would struggle to win re-election, but a new Rasmussen poll shows her leading state Sen. Kay Hagan by 14, 53% to 39%.

* The NBC/WSJ poll released yesterday shows Americans preferring a Dem-led Congress to a Republican-led Congress, 52% to 33%/ Marc Ambinder noted this is, by far, “the highest margin for either party in the 13 years of data available from previous polls.”

* Might CNN anti-immigration personality Lou Dobbs run for governor of New Jersey?

* And Ron Paul finally ended his Republican presidential bid last night. He’ll continue to run for re-election to the House, but Paul will also launch a new advocacy group, called The Campaign for Liberty.

“McCain says that there’s nothing he can do to stop 527 attacks on Sen. Obama”

But how much do you want to bet every attack launched by one of his flying monkey 527s will end up dropping from his own creepily grinning lips prefaced by “My friends…”

  • “McCain says that there’s nothing he can do to stop 527 attacks on Sen. Obama.”

    Really, if Clinton was the presumptive Democratic nominee McCan’t might try to control his allies. But the fact is he dispises Obama and will laugh up his sleeve at every attack made against Barack or Michelle.

  • The Campaign for Liberty.

    “Dollars,” CB—you forgot the word “Dollars” at the end. It should read The Campaign for Liberty Dollars.

    The move to merge portions of DNC with the Obama operation in Chicago, I’ve heard, is at least partly Dean’s idea—to prevent the “stumbling over each other” disaster that hog-tied Gore and Kerry.

    And—there’s absolutely no reason why Obama cannot compete in Oklahoma. If he can get a good team of organizers in there, there’s no telling WHAT could happen, once they start exploiting McDust-Bowl’s gaffes, weaknesses, and objections to such things as farm subsidies….

  • As I’ve said before, the 50 strategy is as much about down ticket races as it is about getting Obama elected. Every congressional district, state legislature, city council etc etc flipped to Dems is a good thing. And even in a loss it provides Dems with seasoned candidates and staffs that can move up over the next decade or two and considate and expand on gains made now.

  • Wes Clark won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma in 2004. Maybe if he were added to Obama’s ticket….

  • Catherine said: “Wes Clark won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma in 2004. Maybe if he were added to Obama’s ticket.”

    By that logic Obama should win Wyoming, Montana and Utah.

    Not sure winning the Democratic primary in a Republican dominated state means you can win that state in the General Election.

  • Wes Clark won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma in 2004. Maybe if he were added to Obama’s ticket…

    Woo hoo! It would be a body-slam to the “McCain as Vet” positioning, and give a lot of weight to Obama’s defense policy. Alas, the next veep is going to have to clean up all the Cheney droppings first.

    The tough part is, there are so many good VP picks this cycle it will be hard to choose just one. Maybe the VP vetting team can recommend a few Cabinet positions too?

  • I have no problem with the Republicans holding on to Oklahoma.

    Provided the Democrats take Texas, Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Kansas, Mississippi, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and every other Republican state they can get their hands on.

    And even in Oklahoma there are places the Democrats can make inroads.

    If Obama can demonstrate that he can keep the races close even in places that he loses, he can prove that a better candidate for that area can win there. Too many people still think that 30 states are Republican and that is that. If Obama can win half of them and keep it close in the rest, he’ll have more than proven his point.

  • While I think Romney might help McCain as VP, I think it would be a mistake for McCain and a big mistake for Romney. The problem for McCain is that he’ll look bad any time he’s seen together with Romney because Romney is so much more handsome than McCain that McCain will look unpresidential in comparison. Of course, McCain will also have that problem any time he’s seen with Obama, but I think the comparison is even worse with Romney, simply because Romney’s on the same ticket. It’d be like having Reagan as Bush Sr’s Vice President. Like it or not, but a certain part of the presidency is type-casting and getting someone who looks right for the part. Obama and Romney look right for the part. McCain doesn’t. Bush didn’t either, though they used enough smoke and mirrors to pull it off. That won’t work for McCain.

    And because McCain’s going to get stomped this election and Romney thinks he can win in 2012, it’d hurt him significantly to be on this ticket. McCain and his VP choice are going to look worse after this election. I’m sure Romney knows this.

  • I’ve been saying for a while that there’s no reason Obama can’t make Oklahoma competitive. He needs to at least show up and campaign with Andrew Rice, running against Inhoffe and run a few ads. Make McCain and the Reps defend the state if they want to hold it. (Using money they don’t have in abundance.)

    Brad Henry is a popular Dem gov. And he backed Obama after the state voted overwhelmingly for Obama on Super Tuesday. David Boren, ex Senator and President of OU also backed him at the same time. This was before Obama tied up the nomination, so there could have been a political cost had they chosen unwisely.

    OK has several pockets of liberalism mainly in the college towns and the cities. But there are Dems in every farming town I know of. OK also has a large Native American population and Barack BlackEagle can easily win them over. There are also quite a few military bases and at least half the military hates the Reps and McCain especially after his comment on Wednesday.

    I’m not sayig he can win it, I’m saying he can put it into play and make John McCain defend it.

    Note: I’m an OU alumn and have family in South Podunk whom I visit a few times a year. And our friend from Muskogee can easily shoot down my reasoning with his more localized knowledge.

    I LOVE the 50 State Strategy!!!!

  • You beat me to it Dee. You are right on. Make McCain hold onto OK and other previously solid Red states by spending money that they originally didn’t think they would have to.

    Until we get real campaign finance reform and move away from a privately financed election system into a public financed system, it will be the person who can raise the most money who will usually win….. And repub’s (since Nixon) have outraised us by significant amounts each and every time.

    So let Obama raise as much as possible…… ’cause…. Payback’s a bitch!!!!!!

  • Splitting,

    Agreed.

    Splitting hairs.

    Wisconsin went for Kerry/Edwards in 2004 and is polling very strongly for Obama right now. Recent UW poll has Obama over 50% and leading McCain by 18 points.

    Wisconsin is pragmatic, but McCain’s ratings on women’s issues and the environment (ZERO ratings by Planned Parenthood and Sierra Club) are way out of step with even the most pragmatic Badger.

  • Only Howard Dean would have ALLOWED the DNC to be pried loose from the stinking cesspool that is my hometown of DC.

    As long as Obama’s staff give at least half an ear to Dean and the DNC that set up this volleyball for Obama’s upcoming November spike over the net, we’ll be just fine.

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