Friday’s Mini-Report

Today’s edition of quick hits.

* If the new Gallup daily tracking poll is right, the Democratic race hasn’t been this tight in weeks: “Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows a tightening of the national Democratic race, with Barack Obama now holding just a 3-percentage point advantage over Hillary Clinton, 47% to 44%.” A week ago, Obama’s lead was 10 points in the same poll.

* If the new Newsweek poll is right, however, Obama is pulling away: “Despite her campaign’s relentless attacks on Barack Obama’s qualifications and electability, Hillary Clinton has lost a lot of ground with Democratic voters nationwide going into Tuesday’s critical primary in Pennsylvania, a new NEWSWEEK poll shows. The survey of 1,209 registered voters found that Obama now leads Clinton by nearly 20 points, or 54 percent to 35 percent, among registered Democrats and those who lean Democratic nationwide. The previous Newsweek poll, conducted in March after Clinton’s big primary wins in Ohio and Texas, showed the two Democrats locked in a statistical tie (45 percent for Obama to 44 percent for Clinton). The new poll puts Obama ahead among women as well as men, and voters aged 60 and older as well as younger voters.”

* This is one unhappy electorate: “Nine in 10 Americans now give the economy a negative rating, with a majority saying it is in “poor” shape, the most to say so in more than 15 years. And the sense that things are bad has spread swiftly. The percentage who hold a negative view of the economy is up 33 points over the past year, and the percentage who rate the economy “poor” has increased 13 points in the past two months. That is the quickest 60-day decline since The Post and ABC started asking the question, in 1985. Views of the Iraq war have dipped as well. Now, more than six in 10 say that the conflict is not integral to the success of U.S. anti-terrorism efforts. That is the most people to reject what is one of the Bush administration’s central contentions and a core part of presumed GOP presidential nominee John McCain’s stand on the issue.”

* What a disaster: “Three weeks after U.S. troops were ordered into the sprawling Shiite Muslim slum of Sadr City to stop rockets from raining down on the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad’s Green Zone, they’re caught in crossfire between Shiite militiamen and the mostly Shiite Iraqi army. American soldiers who try to move around this urban area, even in the U.S. Army’s state-of-the-art Stryker armored vehicles, risk being ambushed. The soldiers in a platoon from the 25th Infantry Division quickly learned that holding a position puts them in the line of fire from both the Mahdi Army militia and the U.S.-backed Iraqi forces.”

* The rationale for not releasing Cindy McCain’s tax returns appears to be bogus.

* The “Colbert Bump” is looking more and more realistic all the time.

* Post of the Day: publius imagines what we might have heard if ABC News existed in 1858 to cover the original Lincoln-Douglas debates.

* In an administration of hacks, this clown might very well be the worst (at least since Alberto Gonzales left): “EPA chief Stephen Johnson has deployed a variety of methods to thwart Congressional scrutiny. There’s been old fashioned stonewalling. Testimonial gobbledygook. And of course fleeing the hemisphere.” He’s now claiming the mysterious “executive privilege to avoid embarrassment.”

* And speaking of Gonzales, Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) isn’t thrilled with Attorney General Michael Mukasey unwillingness to compromise, but when compared to his predecessor, Specter said, “He’s a big improvement. It would be impossible not to be.”

* And speaking of Specter, he’s saying all the right things about telecom immunity: “I think retroactive immunity is exactly wrong. How can you ask for retroactive immunity in a context where you don’t even know what you’re immunizing?”

* I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories, but I was nevertheless pleased to add my name to this letter: “In an open letter to ABC, journalists and media analysts condemn the network’s poor handling of the April 16 Democratic presidential debate.”

* Uh oh: “Smells like success: ‘Trying to stem the infiltration of militia fighters, American forces have begun to build a massive concrete wall that will partition Sadr City, the densely populated Shiite neighborhood in the Iraqi capital.’ Whatever happened to destroying the village in order to save it?”

* And finally, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with this: “Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) introduced a bill Thursday that would decriminalize the personal use of marijuana and legalize the use of medical marijuana in certain states.”

Anything to add? Consider this an end-of-the-day open thread.

I haven’t done it in a while, so here’s another edition of usual suspects.
These are commenters who list websites.
In the interest of community-building, maybe visit them and leave a comment for them.

PS If you do not want your site added to my own blog’s blogroll please let me know.

Visit your commenting colleages:

toowearyforoutrage
http://www.athensproject.com/

Iowa Victory Garden
http://www.urban-oasis.blogspot.com/

Nicoholas Krsitoff
http://www.mercenaryscookbook.com/

The Commander Guy
http://thecommanderguy.blogspot.com/

Ed Stephan
http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~stephan/

Steve M
http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/

mikeyes
http://www.mikekeyes.com/

Buzzmon
http://www.buzzmon.blogspot.com/

Teri B
http://www.teristyrades.blogspot.com/

mattplav
http://plavwriter.blogspot.com/

Mark D
http://www.daddyology.com/

Rian Mueller
http://www.shivermetimbers.org/

Kevin Hayden
http://www.reachm.com/amstreet/

Furious
http://blog.perrspectives.com/

Lew Scannon
http://unbrainwashed.blogspot.com/

sarabeth
http://1115.org/

IludiumPhosdex
http://exaggerator.blogdrive.com/

Madison Guy
http://letterfromhere.blogspot.com/

  • Barney Frank and Ron Paul introduced the bill together.. I could imagine the 2 of them passing a fatty back and forth discussing this, priceless!

    Newsweek’s poll is way over the top, not even close to the reputable pollsters Rasmussen and Gallup, and I hear they outsourced the polling to MSNBC and CNN, both of which have been heavily pro-Obama for months.

  • Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) introduced a bill Thursday that would decriminalize the personal use of marijuana and legalize the use of medical marijuana in certain states.

    What’s the difference between decriminalize and legalize?

  • “I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories….”

    You’d head the list if it weren’t alphabetical.

    “… decriminalize the personal use of marijuana….”

    Barney Frank joins Rick Steves in calling for an end to this stupid prohibition which benefits only the criminals and the prison guards unions. The “war on drugs” (especially this drug) is a complete joke and a very costly one at that. Our prison population puts us off the charts (literally) in comparison with all the world’s nations.

  • If the new Gallup daily tracking poll is right…

    Key point – this is same organization that lied going into 2004 that chimpy had HUGE leads before election. They had to steal that one, actually lost.

    They said that Hugo Chavez was going to be overwhelmingly defeated in Venezuela, yet he won by a landslide.

    With the help of MSM, they can influence the process and not worry about the integrity of their work.

    Is Obama slipping? I don’t know – but people that want to make a big deal out of gallup polls this far before the election are either not informed or are catapulting the propaganda.

  • “American forces have begun to build a massive concrete wall”

    To paraphrase Ronnie Raygun: Mr. Bush, tear down that wall.

  • CB said: “I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories….”

    I read that letter earlier today and was very proud to see my favorite blogger signing on. Nobody on any of the other blogs I read regularly were there in your esteemed company.

  • What’s the difference between decriminalize and legalize?

    Generally speaking, decriminalized means it’s still not allowed, but for up to certain amounts (usually 1 to 2 oz for weed) the penalty is just a small fine. This is the case already for many states. In CA, possession is an “infraction” which is the same category as a speeding ticket. It’s not legal to speed, but up to a point (when it becomes reckless driving), it’s not punished criminally.

    Legalize means legalize 🙂 Possession would actually be permitted with no sanctions. In CA, if you have a Prop 215 (Med MJ) card, the cops can’t arrest, cite, or even take your pot away as long as the quantities are within established limits (again, a few ounces mostly, though there are some complicated exceptions).

    I once heard of a friend-of-a-friend whose house got broken into, and when the cops came to answer a neighbor’s call about it, they found a bunch of pot plants. They busted the guy when he came home and confiscated the plants. He went and retroactively got a MMJ card, and the case not only got dismissed, the judge ruled that they had to give the plants back 😛 Heard it second hand so can’t swear to its veracity.

  • I hate to do this, but you know I have to ask this question because it keeps popping up again and again during this campaign, every time I ask it: Why do I keeping being forced to ask you these stupid questions? And if you can’t stop me now, how can you assure voters that I’ll stop with this inanity in the Generals?

  • Joe @ #1, the difference between decriminalization and legalization is, if marijuana is decriminalized, it is still against the law, but is not a crime– merely a misdemeanor, punishable by a fine, rather than jail time. Legalization means that there would be no penalty at all for possessing it.

  • I’m not saying for certain that Newsweek is correct, but it is best to ignore the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. I followed it for a while until it became quite clear that it moved up and down in what ultimately appeared to be random movement as opposed to a meaningful indicator of daily changes in the campaign.

  • CB said: “I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories….”

    I read that letter earlier today and was very proud to see my favorite blogger signing on. Nobody on any of the other blogs I read regularly were there in your esteemed company.

    Actually quite a few of my favorite bloggers, besides Steve, were on that letter. Plus another, Yglesias, who said he dropped the ball in signing on but endorses it 🙂 But in addition to CB, Drum, Spackerman, Ezra, Mark Schmitt, Kleiman, DeLong, and several others are all folks who I read often. Definitely an A list of lefty bloggers and journalists. (IMO of course…)

  • Thanks for the explanation Resumeman @8 Friend of mine had a medi-jane card and when he showed it to the cops they tore it up and laughed at him. I don’t know what happened after that.

  • Wait a minute… if I don’t want to ask these stupid questions, and the voters don’t want me to ask these stupid questions, and you are running a campaign to change the politics that generates these stupid questions, then, why am I still asking them? And doesn’t the fact that I am, despite the fact that no one wants me to, evidence that you can’t change Washington?

  • Dale @12

    Er, well, yes sometimes there is a bit of a disconnect between what the cops can do and what they actually do do. (c.f. King, Rodney and Diallo, Amadou). I’ve also heard similar stories. Hopefully they didn’t cite him, and if they did I bet he coulda gotten it waived. But I’m no lawyer or Prop 215 expert.

  • I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories
    There’s no doubt in my mind. Thanks for signing it.

    And speaking of Specter, he’s saying all the right things about telecom immunity
    If you google “Specter” and “telecom immunity” you get a lot of articles and a very consistent pattern. He doesn’t vote the way he talks.

  • I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories

    How do we know they’re not all actually you?

  • Not apropos of anything here, but I’m just wondering about opinions of the regulars here regarding religion and the candidates. How many people really believe that any of the three of them really believe in Christianity? Now I’m not saying that people of faith are necessarily stupid, but if you look at stats you can see that religious belief and educational level are generally inversely proportional, and a couple of our candidates have quite a bit of education, not to mention fairly extraordinary life experience. What are the odds that they’d also be deeply religious? That they’d believe in God and prayer and heaven and hell and all the other fantastic beliefs they claim to buy into. I’m sorry, but I just can’t believe it. I strongly suspect that Hillary & Barack have been pretty much faking it for years, knowing that political life demands it in this benighted country. I could be wrong, but really now, what are the odds?

  • #17, I am apparently in the US minority because I would PREFER an atheist in the White House. Too many people die in the name of god. No one should give two shits about a person’s religion, unless that religion is going to drive their decisions, they that should make them ineligible to run for office.(See Separation of Church and State. I wonder when Bush is going to repeal that.)

  • Danp hits the nail on the head about Specter.

    I think he’s learned to play both sides – he tells the press what the people want to hear, then he votes the party line. The press always covers what a politician says, but rarely how they vote.

  • Re: Specter:

    He is the same phenomenon as McCain. There are the party liners, and the moderates who say this or that to get their “maverick” cred before they vote the party line. What never changes is that no Republican defects from the Party line when it matters. It’s just that some need more cover than others.

  • It’s not surprising that Barney Frank is going to endorse Senator Spliff. When Frank made that smirking comment about how he would support the candidate with the most pledged delegates, I immediately suspected him of having a narcotics problem of long standing, just like Mr. I Did Inhale used to have (and claims he no longer does, but a drug habit seems the likeliest explanation for his not being able to pay off his law school debt in two years).

    Now Frank confirms my hunch with this mary jane decriminalization bill business — well, druggies stay together and enable each other, as I learned from personal observation on Chicago’s South Side.

  • Is the US running out of water?

    Public water systems are failing, several states are setting severe water use restrictions, and key water sources are drying up.

    The water crisis is no longer something that we know about as affecting developing countries or their poor in particular. It is right here in our own backyard.

    The private sector has been showing much interest in water as a source of profit, and water privatization has been an issue in many parts of the country.

    So it was with alarm that many of us read the story of Orme, a small town tucked away in the mountains of southern Tennessee that has become a recent symbol of the drought in the southeast. Orme has had to literally ration its water use, by collecting water for a few hours every day — an everyday experience in most developing countries, but unusual for the U.S.

    Full article here: http://www.alternet.org/water/81301/?comments=view&cID=886148#c886148

    h/t Sabyen91 at http://www.tpzoo.wordpress.com

  • The new [Newsweek] poll puts Obama ahead among women as well as men, and voters aged 60 and older as well as younger voters.” — CB

    Some of those older voters grew up in times when certain standards of behaviour — at least in public — were obligatory. After the latest “debate”, some of them began to think that Obama is behaving like a gentleman, while Hillary…

    I know that this “gentlemanly behaviour” is quite important here, in the South ((time and again, I’ve been told that my own behaviour is “unladylike”). And I think this might be the reason why some people are pushing the finger story so hard — to turn those who are impressed by good manners away from thinking that Obama is a gentleman.

  • I thought Edwards had the best lines on Colbert last night, and the parody of Colbert’s “The Word” with “EdWord” was particularly clever. The best line was when Edwards said he hoped poverty would end in 30 years, and the sidebar remark read “Bush ended the middle class in 8 years.”

    By the way, I think the Dems should use that photo of McCain hugging Bush as their theme photo for the general. It really says it all. Absolutely priceless. McCain looks so ridiculous, so pathetic, shamelessly clinging to the worst president in American history. He looks as if he can’t stand up by himself. It just symbolizes everything wrong with this rancid eight years and prospect for four more. It’s the perfect parody of a man who claims to be a leader, a maverick, a straight shooter, hanging on for dear life to such a hollow, empty, corrupt, ignorant and stupid man, a man who most understand is not a man at all, but a mere puppet, a dummy worked by Cheney and the neocons.

    Who will prop this man up when Bush is gone? Perfect. And it ought to show strings leading up to Cheney, who is holding Bush up. Perfect.

  • Ms Joanne, @23,

    It’s been my belief for quite a while now, that Water Wars are pretty much inevitable — across the world — in not too distant future. How distant would depend on how fast we can act on the climate crisis issue, how much harm we can still undo in the time left us and whether it’ll be enough.

  • MsJoanne (#23):

    We’ve been in basic drought conditions since I moved here in 2000. But I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better, according to a short article in today’s paper.

    Jet stream weakening and shifting, possibly strengthening hurricane season

    That potentially means less rain in the already dry South and Southwest and more storms in the North. And it could also translate into more and stronger hurricanes, because the jet stream suppresses their formation.

  • Not apropos of anything here, but I’m just wondering about opinions of the regulars here regarding religion and the candidates.

    Joan Allen did an intriguing portrayal of an atheist female vice-presidential nominee in the movie, The Contender.

    re: weed. It’s *high* time but I doubt it’ll go anywhere at this point. I’m in CA and still confused about laws here regarding Medical MJ licensing. Seems to me I hear once or twice a year of some dispensary getting busted and I’ve often wondered if a license isn’t just another way for the eye in the sky to keep up with you. You’d sure think those assholes have enough to do without bothering the lowly pot-smoker, with all those terrorists at the door, and mexicans and canadians tunneling through!

    Funny thing though, if you made it legal and taxed the hell out of it you’d instantly de-fund a lot of terroristic types and their ambitions.

  • Michael, I saw that article, too.

    There are some good comments on the Alternet page referenced above. We are so shortsighted. We’re still mostly lucky; we could be in a Saharan climate. Those people are going to die off before us. But, it’s a global thing. The south will get hit here first, where there aren’t rivers and lakes. Oh wait, we’ve polluted those already.

    But the free market will come in and privatize our water supply.

    And then, there WILL be a revolution. We may not be able to do much to change our politics, but when people start dropping while water CEO’s make billions…watch the blood flow then.

  • “On the same day that Hurricane Katrina made landfall, President Bush had been at his Crawford, Texas ranch and celebrating the birthday of Senator John McCain in Phoenix, Arizona.”

    John and George holding a birthday cake image:
    http://tinyurl.com/3njnee

  • That was a funny post from ‘publius’ on Lincoln

    I liked one of the comments there as well.

    Charlie Gibson question: “Also, if your bitterness about American politics were a leafy green vegetable, which one would it be? Brussel sprouts? Spinach?”

    🙂

  • ms joanne, you seem especially informed about subjects near and dear to me: peak oil and the water shortage. i think the former is the major driving force behind our (mis)adventures in the middle east. the latter will rear its ugly head more and more across the globe in the years ahead.

  • little bear: Is Obama slipping? I don’t know…

    The answer is no. He is not slipping.
    Very few people understand the dynamics of what is going down right now.
    I’d say virtually zero pundits.
    And as absurd as this sounds: A negative number of teevee folks.
    What I am about to type… others eventually will understand.
    What I am about to type… ultimately will become the theme of many future political analyses.

    Listen:

    Barack Obama is the head of a social movement for change.
    We are talking about 2 million plus actual hard cash donors.
    Think: How many families… how many heads of household does that represent?
    Get my drift? You have to multiply two million by some other number definitely larger than three.
    And that’s only counting the families who can afford to contribute.

    Get it? We Obama people are a very large number.
    A very engaged large number!
    And we Obama people aren’t going to be swayed by chicken-shit media attacks.
    Or chicken-shit Clinton dead-ender troll attacks.
    We are a force to be reckoned with.
    And yes we are kicking ass.
    And not just this election cycle.
    We will be there in 2012 too.

    Got it little big bear?
    Good.

    It is payday folks.
    You know where to click.
    You know how much you can part with. Make it so.
    Again: We are a social movement and no one understands that right now.
    That is to our advantage:
    So let’s kick some McHillary ass… so we can get to the real McCoy.
    I can hardly wait….

  • ROTFLMLiberalAO – guess being able to read isn’t one of your strong points, but then in most states you can vote by pictures too, right?

    …or perhaps someone has taught you how to recognize enough of the alphabet that you can find the DEM candidate?

  • Dale, @1,

    On some (many?) of those blogs (and you forgot Nell’s and dnA’s) it’s just too difficult to post comments. I read dnA’s “Too sense” (if not as regularly as the Carpetbagger) but, when I tried to leave a comment there, the system asked me to sign up for a google or blogger account. Which I refuse to do. The difficulty in signing up is also one of the reasons (the other being I don’t like the commenters there as much as I do here) I don’t comment on any of the TPM’s offspring, though read most of the (“official”, not necessarily the readers’ blogs) entries. In the case of Think Progress, it’s both: the necessity of having to sign up and the crowd of commenters; I don’t feel comfortable in crowds, even virtual ones 🙂

  • Despite her campaign’s relentless attacks on Barack Obama’s qualifications and electability, Hillary Clinton has lost a lot of ground with Democratic voters nationwide going into Tuesday’s critical primary in Pennsylvania, a new NEWSWEEK poll shows. The survey of 1,209 registered voters found that Obama now leads Clinton by nearly 20 points.

    So why are we bloggin about one outlier poll from an organization that has a history of mistrepresenting public opinion?

  • This probably should have gone into last night’s thread, but, regarding the Democratic debate on ABC, we should keep in mind that Disney owns ABC, so the dabacle should hardly have been a surprise. This was intended from the start to make McCain look good.

  • I’m not at all sure if I fit in with the esteemed signatories, but I was nevertheless pleased to add my name to this letter”

    Steve, you need to get out of Vermont more. Public esteem is nothing you have a problem with.

    Ms. Joanne @ 25 – This is one of the issues evolving out of the current climate change research; how will changing climate affect water supply. Our weather is in large part affected by ocean cycles, and those cycles like El Nino/ La Nina (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) — along with others as yet uncharted — are the engines of the weather cycles we experience in all of our lives in North America and around the world. These cycles work on shifts in cold and warm water and can either instigate droughts or a preponderance of moisture depending on whether they are in positive or negative phases. Changes in climate and permanent warming of oceans and changes in ocean salinity levels brought about by melting of ice caps (frozen fresh water) can alter or shut down a number of our weather cycles and oceanic currents. We may well see some changes in our lifetimes of the cycles that have made our current regional climates what they are. This is for real.

    Privatization of water supplies is a very big deal. Privatizing management of water treatment and distribution systems is one thing (which is proving itself to be in many cases not cost effective since the problem of management of these systems is not a matter of making profits but of being undercapitalized) but privatizing the ownership of the sources of water is the real issue. Allowing private companies to own the actual source of the water supply is a quick financial boost to some local and regional governments, but will be a catastrophe in perpetuity. Just ask the places in South America that have experienced this.

    Iraq – what a clusterf*ck. We have gone from a war, to an insurgency, to a civil war, to a sectarian religious war to now an intra-sectarian religious conflict. What do we think we’re doing there?

  • The gallup daily poll, even if it were correct 100% of the time, is irrelevant and so are any GE polls including the Newsweek poll.

    This is a state by state contest, and the remaining states fit well into the demographic that typically supports Clinton.

    If she wins big in PA, and keeps Obama from a blowout in NC, then she is in good shape to win the popular vote and make a huge dent in the delegate count.

  • Libra, As a Southern female I quite agree with your remarks about Obama and the importance of being gentlemanly. Personally, I would have loved a swift kick to her butt,(I can dream can’t I?) Hillary reinforces every negative stereo type people had and some still have about “Feminists”. Has anyone considered how her brashness and lack of grace would play with Middle Eastern countries in the future? For Chrissakes,can you imagine the ire she would engender? She ain’t no Eleanor Roosevelt or Margaret Thatcher that’s for sure.

  • Dale, @ 42,

    If you’d ever been caught in a crowd (peaceful political demonstration), which had been “dispersed” by combined forces of police and “special emergency forces” (plied with vodka, to give them courage), you might have been leery of crowds, too.

    I’d seen this once (at 7) and participated once (at 18, when we were attacked within the confines of the — fenced in — University grounds, with no place to run). Crowds are volatile and unpredictable. I’d rather keep my elitist skin intact, thanks 🙂

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