Friday’s political round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* According to a new Gallup poll, for the first time, a majority of Americans say they are likely to vote for Hillary Clinton if she runs for president in 2008. She remains, however, a person who generates strong opinions on both sides — 29% were “very likely” to vote for Clinton for president if she runs in 2008; 24% were “somewhat likely”; 7% were “not very likely”; and 39% were “not at all likely” to vote for her. Her strong support has risen by 8 percentage points, and her strong opposition has dropped by 5 points since the same question was asked in June 2003.

* Speaking of polls, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s approval rating is down to just 40% among all California adults. That’s down 24 points in one year. On the issues, the governor’s support is even less impressive — 40% are pleased with the way the governor is reforming state government, 37% like what he’s doing with taxes and the budget, 31% are happy with his efforts on illegal immigration, 29% approve of his handing of education, and only 28% are convinced Schwarzenegger is doing the right thing when it comes to transportation.

* In the latest sign of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s political troubles, Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) this week did not discourage other Dems from considering primary campaigns against the incumbent chief executive, concluding, “Anyone can run for any office.” Asked whether it’d be bad for state Dems to have a primary fight, Durbin said, “I’m not going to say what’s good or bad for the party. I want to make sure that the voters in Illinois have good candidates to vote for.” Asked if he’ll endorse Blagojevich, Durbin replied: “I’m not making any endorsement today. What I’ve said in the past is I’ve worked with him, I’m looking forward to working with him in the future.”

* Former Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton (R) told reporters yesterday that he will seek the Republican nomination for governor next year. He’ll likely face State Sen. Jeff Piccola and retired football player Lynn Swann in a GOP primary before taking on incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell (D). In a poll taken last month, Rendell led all three by wide margins.

* Maryland Republican Party Chairman John Kane said Thursday he expects Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) to launch an exploratory committee for the state’s open Senate seat. If he does throw his hat into the ring, Steels would be the only top-tier Republican in the race.

* In a classic example of unfortunate timing, Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) announced his campaign for Senate on Wednesday, only to have his state senator uncle and six others indicted on federal corruption charges on Thursday. Ford, who is not involved with the legal controversy in any way, insisted this would have no impact on his campaign.

* And in New York, with four months to go before the Dem primary in the city’s mayoral race, a new poll shows Fernando Ferrer continuing to hold a narrow lead over C. Virginia Fields, 30% to 23%. Gifford Miller and Anthony Weiner remain way behind.

I think the Hillary Clinton post is interesting. She is a true moderate and I think people are generally realizing that they were better off financially before 2001. The only reason I would have for being pessimistic about her chances was the age disparity. Those under 30 widely liked her, those over 50 had much higher negative views. Unfortunately those 20-somethings that answered the phone aren’t going to make the effort to actually go vote for her.

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