Friday’s political round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* A new USAT/Gallup poll shows the Democratic primary race all tied up in New Hampshire: “In the poll, Clinton and Obama are tied at 32%-32%, with Edwards at 18%. No other candidate breaks into double digits. Counting only those who say their vote is certain, Clinton narrowly leads Obama, 20%-18%. Edwards is backed by 10%.”

* The same poll shows a Republican race in flux as well. Mitt Romney still leads, but his margin is shrinking: “Romney leads McCain, 34%-27%. Including only those whose votes are set, Romney’s lead narrows to 19%-15%, within the survey’s margin of error of +/- 5 points. Effectively tied for third place are former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 11%, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, each at 9%.” USAT adds that more than four in 10 voters in each party “say they may change their minds before the Jan. 8 primary.”

* Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, has new numbers on the Iowa caucuses today. It finds Obama leading the Dems’ race with 30%, followed by Clinton and Edwards, who had 27% each. Among Republicans, Huckabee still leads with 31%, followed by Romney with 25%, and Fred Thompson with 16%.

* Get ready for a new round of Bloomberg rumors: “New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel have been conducting regular, private phone conversations over the past few months in an effort to “feel each other out” for a possible presidential run, sources have told the Huffington Post…. Sources with knowledge of the conversations say they usually occur every few weeks and always are done in private. As such, the topics of discussion remain unclear. But one high-ranking aide confirmed that they have discussed Hagel joining the presidential campaign should Bloomberg choose to run.”

* John McCain unveiled his own Christmas campaign commercial, but unlike Huckabee, he featured a cross in his ad blatantly, instead of obliquely: “‘One night, after being mistreated as a POW, a guard loosened the ropes binding me, easing my pain,’ McCain narrates in the 30-second spot. ‘On Christmas, that same guard approached me, and without saying a word, he drew a cross in the sand.’ The ad uses grainy footage to re-enact the moment as a man, off screen, draws a cross in the dirt using a twig.”

* Chris Dodd is on the air with a new ad, hitting one of his key strengths: “Dodd’s new ad is called ‘Together,’ but it’s really more about setting him apart in terms of experience. In the spot, which starts running statewide in Iowa this Thursday, the Connecticut Democrat takes digs at both his rivals for the Democratic nomination and President Bush on the experience question. ‘Some people say that I have too much experience to run for President,’ Mr. Dodd says to open the no-frills spot. ‘But the more you hear my opponents, the more you wonder whether they have enough.'”

* CNN: “Just one day after a challenge from presidential rival John Edwards to commit to raising the minimum wage to $9.50 an hour, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton announced that she had already introduced legislation to do just that. ‘With stagnant wages and skyrocketing costs for healthcare, energy and college, working families in America need a break. That is why yesterday I introduced legislation to raise the minimum wage to $9.50 by 2011, and link the minimum wage to Congressional pay raises after that,’ said Clinton in a Thursday statement. The senator said the measure was ‘the first bill ever to call for a $9.50 minimum wage.'”

* The Hill reports that the Clinton campaign organized a conference call yesterday so that some of her House supporters could go after Obama on his “present” votes in the state Senate: “Democratic Reps. Anthony Weiner (N.Y.), Joseph Crowley (N.Y.) and Stephanie Tubbs Jones (Ohio) all joined Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson on the call to hit Obama for the number of ‘present’ votes he cast while in the Illinois state Senate…. ‘He took what many of us in public life would say is the easy way out,’ Weiner said.” I really wish the campaign wouldn’t do this.

* Dems are still leading Republicans in fundraising: “In financial reports filed today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported raising $4.1 million in November, compared to the $2.7 million raised by the National Republican Congressional Committee. The DCCC now has $30.7 million cash on hand, significantly more than the $2.3 million banked by the NRCC…. On the Senate side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised $4.1 million in November and now has $25.5 million cash on hand. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $2.3 million, and banked $10.4 million at the end of the month. The DSCC still has $2 million in debt, while the NRSC has no outstanding debt.”

Mark Blumenthal at Pollster has a write-up about the gallup poll’s complicated likely voter model, how it tends to create widely aberrant votes months out, but is very reliable in the closing weeks of elections.

Worth a read in light of the data they’re putting out with only 18 days to go before NH votes

  • I really hope Bloomberg and Hagel will leave well enough alone. We have plenty of good Democratic candidates (my fave is still Edwards). The nation can’t stand yet another Nader-like Democratic meltdown.

  • Dodd, brrrrr!

    Of all the Democrats, he’s the one I most dislike. One for his ties to banking and financial lobbyists. Two for his rancid adoption of Rovian tactics on immigration to bash Hillary.

    Driver’s licenses are priviledges? Considering the risk unlicensed drivers present on the roads, and considering the lack of police resources to keep the unlicensed off the roads if we don’t make every effort resonable to test and certify them instead, that’s just a dumb position to take, and smacks far too much of Tom Tancredo and Lou Dobbs for me.

    Dodd Dobbs, coincidence?

    As for a REPUBLICAN poll of the Democratic race in Iowa, who cares?

  • That is why yesterday I introduced legislation to raise the minimum wage to $9.50 by 2011.

    By 2011? Well, why do today what you can put off for three or four years. Show of hands: who thinks $9.50 will be enough of a minimum wage in 2011?

    The ad uses grainy footage to re-enact the moment as a man, off screen, draws a cross in the dirt using a twig.

    I didn’t have any problems with Obama’s or Huckabee’s spots other than my innate disdain of most things religious, but this one bothers me, but mostly because I doubt the veracity of most of McCain’s POW stories. They’ve always just struck me as too convenient at the time they surface.

    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported raising $4.1 million in November…

    And not a dime of it came from me, despite their persistent pestering. Until they stop capitulating to the obstructionists and show they intend to make one inch of progress they get not one cent. They only thing lamer than the the lame duck President is the lame Democratic Congress that won’t stand up to him.

  • Two for his rancid adoption of Rovian tactics on immigration to bash Hillary. -Lance

    I guess Hillary should just call Dodd “The Kettle” then, because she’s certainly “The Pot” when it comes to Rovian tactics.

    Driver’s licenses are priviledges? -Lance

    They are. One that is given out to freely in this nation, as someone who was nearly hit with my 6 month old in the car two days ago. Lack of enforcement doesn’t mean we should change who gets licenses; rather it indicates the problem is with enforcement and that’s where it should be addressed.

    …if we don’t make every effort resonable to test and certify them instead… -Lance

    Besides, if they are willing to drive without a license now, how will failing your proposed ‘test’ stop them from driving without a license in the future? Let’s not make excuses for poor enforcement that won’t actually solve the problem.

  • Ugh. It galls me to say this.
    Linking minimum wage to Congressional pay?

    Well done, Senator Clinton.

    Ack.
    If she does anything else like this, I’ll have to ratchet my meter down from “loathe” to mere “hate”.
    How’d she get THIS one past her handlers?

  • McCain is shameless using the cross in his ad to go after the christian right vote. It really has nothing to do with anything else. Notice how his POW stories are always so ‘convenient’. “A cross, a cross, My kingdom for a cross.” Always right there when you need it. What, no folded and badly smeared remnant from a letter he received while in captivity from Joe Lieberman?

    If dems were as shameless as republicans then someone would swiftboat McCain saying the only real injuries he sustained came when he crashed his million dollar plane. His ‘torture’ was really just punishment for bombing innocent villages killing hundreds of innocent women and children. The cross drawn in the sand was a plea for him to get religion and stop killing innocent people.

    This is how it played on Kerry to be swiftboated for his heroic service. Shameless.
    Both men should always be honored for their service and for what they suffered and endured in the name of our country. While instead we get a president and a VP who were running the other way during Nam and now want others to fight their wars.
    Still, McCain’s use of the cross in this manner was demeaning and completely bigoted. His motivations are suspect.

    I wish that in addition to raising the minimum wage these candidates would change what the increased MW was supposed to be paying for and make higher education free, plus get us a single payer national healthcare system. That way the increased MW would have some real meaning. Raising the MW to pay for increased costs seems futile.

  • In other campaign news, this is disappointing:

    Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) now leads challenger Jeanne Shaheen (D), 52% to 41%, in a re-match for U.S. Senate, according to the latest American Research Group survey.

    Key finding: Republicans increasingly say they would vote for Sununu (93% now, 80% in September, and 61% in June).

    I think there are two things here that are of importance to keep in mind nationwide (including in the Presidential). First, I think this reflects the diminishing rank of the Iraq War among issues in the electorate. Sununu’s party affiliation was seen as a real problem in stopping the Republican war, but is less a problem (for reasons I don’t understand) on domestic issues.

    Second, as the elections near, partisans fall back to party discipline. This almost always happens on the right; hopefully notwithstanding what I often see posted here, it will happen on the left as well because if the phenomenon is one-sided the right will avoid a day of reckoning.

  • Ron Paul received contributions from over 100,000 different people this quarter. He received $18,000,000 from those 100,000 people. His support is wide and deep. Look around your town and notice you see RP signs everywhere. Grab a cup of coffee and go to http://freeme.tv

  • The Ron Pual signs that I see tacked to the light poles are hand-stenciled. It’s kind of pathetic.

  • Being as the minimum wage federally is still abysmally low, it’s a great idea. And linking it… Man, that’s been a dream forever.

    If only it had the same linkage as the ratio when the senate was joined two hundred years ago.

    Still, it’s a start. And we need to de-link the pay rates of public officials, so that they can be paid the going wage – and we can find people able to fill the spots.

    Admittedly, that always squishes someone off the bottom end. That’s not always good. But blocking the minimum wage isn’t how we should deal with it – there should be real mechanics and reasons to hire trainees, ‘kids’, and focus on making the jobs low-turnover. They shouldn’t be exceptions for farmworkers, for instance.

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