Friday’s political round-up

July 15, 2005

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Despite saying he would “absolutely” seek re-election, Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham (R-Calif.) announced yesterday that he will step down next year as the FBI continues to investigate the lawmaker’s ties to a defense contractor whose company earned millions in government military contracts. “Regardless of what my critics say, I did nothing wrong,” Cunningham said. His “retirement” may make it more difficult for a Dem to win the seat in this GOP-leaning district.

* New York Gov. George Pataki (R) will campaign in Iowa this weekend as part of “an exploration” of whether he should run for president in 2008. Considering Pataki’s relative moderation on abortion, gays, and guns, few think his message will be well received. Nevertheless, Pataki sources indicate that the trip increases the chances that he will not for a fourth term in New York as he shifts his attention to the national stage.

* Speaking of the 2008 GOP presidential nomination, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (R) will be campaigning in South Carolina this weekend for a half-dozen events, including a state Republican fundraiser. He’ll also meet with a group of pastors in Charleston and give an interview on radio. This follows recent Brownback trips to Iowa and New Hampshire.

* In Virginia’s gubernatorial election, a new Rasmussen poll shows former state Attorney General Jerry Kilgore (R) continuing to lead Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D), 47% to 41%. The six-point margin is about where this race has been for a while. Virginia is one of two states with gubernatorial elections this year (the other is New Jersey).

* Former New York City Councilman Thomas Ognibene (R) intends to challenge Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) in a GOP primary this year, and claims to finally have enough petition signatures to get on the ballot. Ognibene is, however, barely meeting the necessary threshold, and in a city where such petitions are routinely challenged, his spot on the ballot is still considered precarious.

* And in Las Vegas, tennis pro Andre Agassi announced yesterday that he will not run for Congress next year against. A number of local Dems were trying to recruit Agassi to take on Rep. Jon Porter (R), but he declined, saying, “While I am flattered by the recent effort to draft me to run for Congress, I presently have no plans to enter the political arena.”

. . . [Cunningham’s] “retirement” may make it more difficult for a Dem to win the seat in this GOP-leaning district.

If Dems can’t grab this seat they are as limp as the Republicans say they are. What more do they need?

  • Gov. Pataki can not run for re-election if he wants to have ANY political future. Elliot Spitzer has basically won the election already. Spitzer has raised so much money that no one can touch him. Obviously, a lot can change in 15 months but Pataki will not risk his political life on the long shot chance that Spitzer will self destruct.

  • Eadie,

    If Dems can’t grab this seat they are as limp as the Republicans say they are. What more do they need?

    Alot more Dems and Independents in that district for starters. It is a heavy Rethug district. If the GOP can put forward a reasonable sounding and ethically clean candidate (a stretch I know, how about ethically unvarnished?) the seat is theirs to lose. Sadly.

  • Edo,

    OK, great, Republican district. So what, give up? The entire South was Democrat; Louisiana is now the last and slowly fading strong point. People change parties, people even think about things (unfortunately, much of that was racism, but much of it was religion and taxes, too). When Newt signed his “contract with America,” there weren’t suddenly more Republicans, there were a lot of fed-up people tired of thinking their politicians were liars. So they went with the guys saying the right things.

    In this case, my point is that this is a military-heavy area, and while that generally means they have been well-fortified against “liberal� ideas, I believe people will respond strongly to questions of integrity. Who can the Republicans run that won’t have ties with Cunningham? Moreover, who can they run that won’t have the stink of “Republican�? I think a Democrat willing to attack hard would be able to pull it off.

    Push the “support vets� angle, support the “stick it out but get them home� Iraq angle, support lower taxes and plenty of defense. Because those are all good issues when handled by honest, intelligent people.

    Rove’s whole strategy, as we discussed, was to attack the supposedly unassailable. Here’s a great opportunity to do the same thing. Flip the whole damn district, not just a few “swing voters.�

  • Ok, sadly someone will have to bring everyone back to reality. In Californias 50th Congressional District, the word Republican certainly does not have a “stink” around it. In fact the word “Democrat” is associated more negatively. I live in the distrct, so I know the make up of it rather well. The Democratically controlled State Legislature gerrymandered the entire Golden State Delegation a while back so that absolutely NONE of our enormous 53 congressional districts are even somewhat competitive, this is true for the 50th. The district has a 15 point advantage in voter registration toward the GOP. 45 percent identify as Republican, 30 Democrat, 20 undecided. Which means that the Dems would have to win virtually all of their base as well as every single Independent voter out there, probably just to squeek out a win. The seat is populated with military veterans and current military personnel, another advantage to the GOP. Also, it includes some of the ultra posh neighborhoods of Del Mar, La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe, and lets just say they don’t really like liberal economics. Any grand ideas that the Democrats might “flip” this district makes about as much sense as the GOP thinking that they can “flip” the Bronx into its congressional delegation. Lets stop dreaming and get some kind of grip on reality. But hey, if you guys want to waste your precious resources and money on this unattainable district, then by all means, be my guest.

  • Don’t get down, dems!

    Even though we don’t have an ethically challenged incumbent to run against, we’re enthusiastic about a race in this moderate (and moderating) district. Francine Busby is an incredibly strong candidate with a great message about bringing honesty, integrity and responsibility back to Washington–which is more than GOP leadership like Tom Delay has to offer. The people in this district are ready for change and real representation. Francine has the strongest campaign out there and the most successful fundraising. Remember, if Senator Boxer can tie in the 50th, then a moderate from the 50th who campaigns here can win.

    Folks, visit http://www.busbyforcongress.com if you care about changing our country for th ebetter.

    best,

    tim
    http://www.busbyforcongress.com
    fernholz@busbyforcongress.com

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