Friday’s political round-up

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers (a little earlier than usual because of the Fitzgerald report at noon):

* With just 11 days before New Jersey elects a new governor, a new Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind poll shows Sen. Jon Corzine (D) maintaining his lead over Doug Forrester, 44% to 37%.

* In the other gubernatorial race, a new Rasmussen poll has Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) inching ahead of Jerry Kilgore (R), 46% to 44%.

* Kaine also received good news yesterday when Wyatt B. Durrette Jr., who was the Republican nominee for governor in 1985, endorsed Kaine for Virginia’s top job, telling him, “I believe Virginia will accomplish more with you as our governor.”

* In yet another recruiting setback for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, West Virginia Secretary of State Betty Ireland announced yesterday that she will not run against Sen. Robert Byrd (D) next year. Ireland was the GOP’s second choice after Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) bowed out earlier this month. The state party now hopes to woo West Virginia University basketball coach Gale Catlett.

* In Michigan, a new EPIC/ MRA poll offers good news and bad news for Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D). The bad news is her approval rating has dipped below the 50% mark, dropping to 46%. The good news is, in a hypothetical match-up against her most likely Republican opponent, Dick DeVos, Granholm still enjoys a big lead, 53% to 30%.

* For the umpteenth time, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) enjoys a huge lead over Jeanine Pirro in a statewide poll. This time it’s Republican pollster Strategic Vision, which as Clinton up 57% to 34%.

* And in the amusing campaign news of the week, Cranston (R.I.) Mayor Stephen Laffey, who’s challenging Sen. Lincoln Chafee in next year’s Republican primary, recently sent out a direct mail piece to Rhode Island Republicans. Apparently, however, Laffey “borrowed” the piece from Herman Cain’s (R) unsuccessful Senate campaign in Georgia last year, because Laffey’s pitch encouraged voters to visit Cain’s now-defunct website. Making matters even worse, the same letter spelled the candidate’s name wrong, explaining at the bottom that the direct mail was “paid for by Lafie U.S. Senate.”

This umpteenth poll for the NY senate election, along with everyone saying “Hillary’s gonna run for President in 2004 2008!” has me thinking. Is 57% to 34% “presidential” numbers? Assuming she wins by that margin, and considering that it’s New York state, is that cause to consider the presidency?

And then several questions stemming from that. For example: when using numbers as evidence/justification/whatever to think that a presidential run might be successful, what caveats must there be? Barack Obama won by a huge margin, but people don’t expect him to be a successful Democratic candidate in 2008. Is there reason for that beyond his being a freshman senator? Any reason to discount his ability because he won in a blue state?

What do you guys think?

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