Friday’s political round-up

September 29, 2006

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn’t generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* Could Nevada’s Senate race be competitive after all? The Las Vegas Review Journal notes a new poll that shows Sen. John Ensign’s (R) lead over Jack Carter (D) has narrowed to about six points, 48.5% to 41.9%. In the previous poll, Ensign’s lead was nearly twice as big.

* Any hopes Republicans might have had in winning Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race have just about slipped away. A new Rasmussen poll shows incumbent Gov. Brad Henry (D) now leading Rep. Ernest Istook (R) by 25 points, 59% to 34%.

* Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race, however, is suddenly looking far more competitive. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Gov. Jim Doyle (D) now leads Rep. Mark Green (R) 47% to 44%. Next week a state judge is expected to rule on whether Green can keep $1.3 million in campaign donations — received from out of state PACs — that he transferred from his congressional account to his Senate campaign account.

* In Kansas, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) has seen her over lead Republican challenger Jim Barnett slip a bit of late, but it has not yet caused real concerns. According to a new Rasmussen poll, Sebelius is now ahead, 48% to 39%. A month ago, Sebelius’ lead was 11.

* And in two of the most predictable races in the country, a New York Times poll released today showed Eliot Spitzer (D) leading John Faso (R) in New York’s gubernatorial race, 64% to 18%, and Hillary Clinton (D) leading John Spencer (R) in the state’s U.S. Senate race, 59% to 27%.

I’ve always been curious about how much of a benefit governorships are to national party elections? I’m sure they’re good for the party who has them but has anyone ever crunched the numbers on exactly how much difference they make, percentage of the vote-wise? Just wondering.

  • curmudgeon,

    I’d read somewhere that the perception was a Governorship was worth 3-5% in presidential elections. Not sure how well sourced that info is, though. My hunch is that Mr. Carpetbagger will have keener insight into this.

    …that he transferred from his congressional account to his Senate campaign account.

    don’t you mean gubernatorial campaign account?

  • Curmudgeon –
    also remember that four of the last five presidents were state governors before becoming president – Bush of Texas, Clinton of Arkansas, Reagan of California and Carter of Georgia.

  • I’d read somewhere that the perception was a Governorship was worth 3-5% in presidential elections.

    I’ve heard similar estimates, but they frequently seem exaggerated to me. I think the phenomenon was far more common in previous generations, when governors would create in-state “machines,” that could affect presidential elections more directly.

    Let me look into this some more and see what I can dig up.

  • I look forward to next week, when the People of Connecticut—who impress me as being substantially “anti-tortur”—start voicing their opinion of Herr Lieberman. This one just might have been Lamont’s magic bullet….

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