Guest post by Ed Stephan
Bush’s approval ratings have been dropping fairly steadily ever since 9/11. They were in the mid-50s during his first half year in office, then shot up to the high 80s with 9/11 (in spite of his “My Pet Goat” performance). They returned to the 50s by March 2003, then spiked to the low 70s with his unwarranted invasion of Iraq. They settled back down to the low 50s by Christmas 2003, followed by a mini-bounce to the low 60s with the apparent capture of Saddam, and ever since they’ve been moving very slowly downward within the mid-40s to low 50s range.
A recent compilation by SurveyUSA shows some fascinating state-by-state patterns, not unexpected but interesting nevertheless.
The media have reported very little on this, other than the single salient fact that Idaho seems to be leading the pack in Bush-worship. Yet even in that bastion of the Aryan Nation and other Nazi-based sects only 59% approve of Bush’s performance in office. That his bubble is still that intact in Idaho seems to be one reason he chose to flee there to avoid having to see any more of Camp Casey back in Crawford. For our own reality check, it may be worth recalling that Bill Clinton, during the height of the Impeachment hearings, was still pulling nearly 70% ratings nationwide.
The Free Republic doesn’t seem to have published this most recent poll, but reactions to a slightly earlier, slightly higher one, are what you’d expect from the “fantasy-based community”:
* No one ever polls me or ANY of my friends or family.
* Probably polling all the Mexicans that live here.
* So for the most part, the red states got a bit redder and the blue states got a bit bluer. [?]
* This is just impossible unless they sampled Democrats to Republicans like 2:1
* Intelligent people don’t answer polls anyway.
* A two word explanation: Illegal Immigration.
* I sure [sic] some percentage of those who disapprove think Bush hasn’t been conservative ENOUGH.
Unlike the Free Republic, which at least did publish those earlier state-by-state results, the mainstream media seem satisfied to point to Idaho’s whopping 59% approval, contrasting it with Rhode Island’s lowest at 29%, and let it go at that.
I like visual presentations of data. Here are the Survey USA results cast in the red-blue iconography of the last several elections. Incidentally, I’ve never understood how the Democrats (who used to be called Reds, or at least Pinkos) have, in the last two election cycles, suddenly become bathed in traditional conservative true-blue. Must’ve been the corporate advertising experts who, ever since sociologist Vance Packard published Hidden Persuaders, have understood the sales appeal of the color red. Or maybe the “journalistic” powers that be were anticipating the color of ink in the Bush administration’s fiscal reports?
So it’s come to this: seven fairly sparsely settled islands of red in a national ocean of blue. And even those islands aren’t much above water. North Dakota and Alabama are at 51% and 52%; even Texas is only 54%. The national “weighted average” (each state is weighted proportionally to its share of USA population) is 41%. For the record, and perhaps your own analyses, here’s the original data (you can copy/paste and find/replace the ” | ” with tabs):
APPROVAL RATING FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH (Released 08/16/05)
State | Approve | Disapprove | Net Approve
Alabama | 52 | 45 | 7
Alaska | 46 | 49 | -3
Arizona | 45 | 52 | -7
Arkansas | 40 | 56 | -16
California | 32 | 62 | -3
Colorado | 45 | 53 | -8
Connecticut | 33 | 62 | -29
Delaware | 32 | 64 | -32
Florida | 44 | 53 | -9
Georgia | 47 | 51 | -4
Hawaii | 43 | 49 | -6
Idaho | 59 | 36 | 23
Illinois | 38 | 57 | -19
Indiana | 48 | 49 | -1
Iowa | 42 | 55 | -13
Kansas | 46 | 50 | -4
Kentucky | 42 | 53 | -11
Louisiana | 48 | 48 | 0
Maine | 40 | 58 | -18
Maryland | 34 | 62 | -28
Massachusetts | 32 | 64 | -32
Michigan | 38 | 58 | -2
Minnesota | 39 | 59 | -2
Mississippi | 49 | 47 | 2
Missouri | 38 | 58 | -2
Montana | 50 | 45 | 5
Nebraska | 55 | 42 | 13
Nevada | 40 | 57 | -17
New Hampshire | 42 | 55 | -13
New Jersey | 35 | 61 | -26
New Mexico | 41 | 56 | -15
New York | 34 | 62 | -28
North Carolina | 47 | 47 | 0
North Dakota | 51 | 45 | 6
Ohio | 37 | 60 | -23
Oklahoma | 50 | 46 | 4
Oregon | 41 | 56 | -15
Pennsylvania | 40 | 56 | -16
Rhode Island | 29 | 68 | -39
South Carolina | 45 | 51 | -6
South Dakota | 45 | 52 | -7
Tennessee | 43 | 52 | -9
Texas | 54 | 43 | 11
Utah | 57 | 38 | 19
Vermont | 33 | 63 | -3
Virginia | 42 | 52 | -1
Washington | 40 | 57 | -17
West Virginia | 45 | 51 | -6
Wisconsin | 41 | 55 | -14
Wyoming | 58 | 38 | 2