From “Mandate” to “Mess”

August 27, 2005

Guest post by Ed Stephan

Bush’s approval ratings have been dropping fairly steadily ever since 9/11. They were in the mid-50s during his first half year in office, then shot up to the high 80s with 9/11 (in spite of his “My Pet Goat” performance). They returned to the 50s by March 2003, then spiked to the low 70s with his unwarranted invasion of Iraq. They settled back down to the low 50s by Christmas 2003, followed by a mini-bounce to the low 60s with the apparent capture of Saddam, and ever since they’ve been moving very slowly downward within the mid-40s to low 50s range.

A recent compilation by SurveyUSA shows some fascinating state-by-state patterns, not unexpected but interesting nevertheless.

The media have reported very little on this, other than the single salient fact that Idaho seems to be leading the pack in Bush-worship. Yet even in that bastion of the Aryan Nation and other Nazi-based sects only 59% approve of Bush’s performance in office. That his bubble is still that intact in Idaho seems to be one reason he chose to flee there to avoid having to see any more of Camp Casey back in Crawford. For our own reality check, it may be worth recalling that Bill Clinton, during the height of the Impeachment hearings, was still pulling nearly 70% ratings nationwide.

The Free Republic doesn’t seem to have published this most recent poll, but reactions to a slightly earlier, slightly higher one, are what you’d expect from the “fantasy-based community”:
* No one ever polls me or ANY of my friends or family.
* Probably polling all the Mexicans that live here.
* So for the most part, the red states got a bit redder and the blue states got a bit bluer. [?]
* This is just impossible unless they sampled Democrats to Republicans like 2:1
* Intelligent people don’t answer polls anyway.
* A two word explanation: Illegal Immigration.
* I sure [sic] some percentage of those who disapprove think Bush hasn’t been conservative ENOUGH.

Unlike the Free Republic, which at least did publish those earlier state-by-state results, the mainstream media seem satisfied to point to Idaho’s whopping 59% approval, contrasting it with Rhode Island’s lowest at 29%, and let it go at that.

I like visual presentations of data. Here are the Survey USA results cast in the red-blue iconography of the last several elections. Incidentally, I’ve never understood how the Democrats (who used to be called Reds, or at least Pinkos) have, in the last two election cycles, suddenly become bathed in traditional conservative true-blue. Must’ve been the corporate advertising experts who, ever since sociologist Vance Packard published Hidden Persuaders, have understood the sales appeal of the color red. Or maybe the “journalistic” powers that be were anticipating the color of ink in the Bush administration’s fiscal reports?

So it’s come to this: seven fairly sparsely settled islands of red in a national ocean of blue. And even those islands aren’t much above water. North Dakota and Alabama are at 51% and 52%; even Texas is only 54%. The national “weighted average” (each state is weighted proportionally to its share of USA population) is 41%. For the record, and perhaps your own analyses, here’s the original data (you can copy/paste and find/replace the ” | ” with tabs):

APPROVAL RATING FOR PRESIDENT GEORGE W BUSH (Released 08/16/05)
State | Approve | Disapprove | Net Approve
Alabama | 52 | 45 | 7
Alaska | 46 | 49 | -3
Arizona | 45 | 52 | -7
Arkansas | 40 | 56 | -16
California | 32 | 62 | -3
Colorado | 45 | 53 | -8
Connecticut | 33 | 62 | -29
Delaware | 32 | 64 | -32
Florida | 44 | 53 | -9
Georgia | 47 | 51 | -4
Hawaii | 43 | 49 | -6
Idaho | 59 | 36 | 23
Illinois | 38 | 57 | -19
Indiana | 48 | 49 | -1
Iowa | 42 | 55 | -13
Kansas | 46 | 50 | -4
Kentucky | 42 | 53 | -11
Louisiana | 48 | 48 | 0
Maine | 40 | 58 | -18
Maryland | 34 | 62 | -28
Massachusetts | 32 | 64 | -32
Michigan | 38 | 58 | -2
Minnesota | 39 | 59 | -2
Mississippi | 49 | 47 | 2
Missouri | 38 | 58 | -2
Montana | 50 | 45 | 5
Nebraska | 55 | 42 | 13
Nevada | 40 | 57 | -17
New Hampshire | 42 | 55 | -13
New Jersey | 35 | 61 | -26
New Mexico | 41 | 56 | -15
New York | 34 | 62 | -28
North Carolina | 47 | 47 | 0
North Dakota | 51 | 45 | 6
Ohio | 37 | 60 | -23
Oklahoma | 50 | 46 | 4
Oregon | 41 | 56 | -15
Pennsylvania | 40 | 56 | -16
Rhode Island | 29 | 68 | -39
South Carolina | 45 | 51 | -6
South Dakota | 45 | 52 | -7
Tennessee | 43 | 52 | -9
Texas | 54 | 43 | 11
Utah | 57 | 38 | 19
Vermont | 33 | 63 | -3
Virginia | 42 | 52 | -1
Washington | 40 | 57 | -17
West Virginia | 45 | 51 | -6
Wisconsin | 41 | 55 | -14
Wyoming | 58 | 38 | 2

It’s actually ten red states. Montana, Mississippi and Oklahoma are also still more than 50% for Bush. And Louisiana and North Carolina are statistical ties that in an election would “mysteriously” end up going for Bush.

  • Looks like he done spent his “political capital” and is now bouncing checks… He’d better file for bankruptcy before the bankruptcy law changes…

  • The colors for Dem/Rep are changed like every 4 election cycles or something….there’s some media standard on it, so right now Dems are Blue, and will be for a bit longer.

  • Historical Bush ratings can be found here:

    http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

    All major polls are represented in graphical
    format, including a five day average trend
    line.

    Actually, in Idaho, my state, Aryans or neo-Nazis
    compose a miniscule, despised minority in
    the north. They are considered a blight by
    99% of Idahoans. Bush’s approval ratings
    run strong throughout the state in all
    counties but one. Why this remains so
    in view of the rapidly changing demographic
    mix toward more educated and affluent
    people is a mystery to me.

  • Hey Ed,

    JohnnyB is right. For a more unbiased display, I would have used the differential between approval and disapproval for Bush to color the map. Specifically, I would have used 0 and above for red (pro-Bush) and -1 and less for blue (anti-Bush). Or, you could have left the ties (0) be blank (white).

  • Okay, I redid the map. I apologize for taking so long to get to it, but my computer has been giving me fits this morning. You can view a “net approval” version of the map here (I sincerely hope. grrrr). Still makes the same point, doesn’t it?

  • * Probably polling all the Mexicans that live here.
    * A two word explanation: Illegal Immigration.

    I’ve been thinking about those bigot Freeper remarks. Has the rabid right given any thought (hah!) to the fact that we didn’t have a problem of illegal immigration until Reagan busted what was left of our unions?

    The other economic conditions were all the same through the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s. What migration there was was cyclic and agricultural, not during that time a matter of union concern. But the unions did prevent employers from hiring in areas which they did consider there own.

    With the unions out of the way, the only thing to prevent anyone from hiring illegals was government, and the Reagan administration which decided not to prosecute employers. Voila … a magnet for thousands of illegals.

    If fact, if we were serious about curtailing illegal immigration, we could forget about beefing up the shape-shifting sieve called “border patrol” and simply shut down those who do the hiring. The one solution (like out “war on drugs”) is impossible, the other is relatively easy.

  • With regards to the red/blue state coding system, my understanding is that the media used to alternate. The 2000 election was the democrats turn to be blue, and, given the longevity and intensity of that election, the coding has now stuck. Kevin Drum did a post about this a year or so ago, but here is a link (I only skimmed it so I don’t know how informative it is):

    http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=415905

  • i like to see the red/blue state designation as, even if only accidently, reflecting the hot/cool media designations of marshall mcluhan. red states like their media ‘hot’ – that is: one directional and mainly offering no means of supplying one’s own input. talk radio, in this regard, is about as hot as you get. cool, blue, media, represent those forms where the ‘customer’ has a lot of input – even if it is only a projection – on the product. in this sense, the net – and replying to blog posts in particular – is very ‘cool’.

    broadly put, red staters need to hear orders, to follow directions. blue staters need to supply their oun feelings and opinions before they can feel satisfied with the ‘message’. neither is intrinsically correct, but technology does nothing now but introduce further elaborations on ‘cool’. the era of hot media, for better or ill, is done.

    mcluhan is nothing if not bewildering at times, but i think his broad characterizations of the effect of media are fascinating. and though there is no medium that is exclusively hot or cool, his ideas do give some means of seeing how people react with, or what they want from, various forms of electronic messages.

  • I think the last indicates a valid point. First, there are indeed some crazy libertarians and religious right nuts for whom Bush is not conservative enough to satisfy them. But, more generally, it’s important to note that the red-blue scheme doesn’t represent how states would vote in a “Bush v Not-Bush” election today, just those who approve or not of the way Bush is doing his job.

  • Hark,

    can you comment on how Dem’s are fareing (fairing?) in local and state elections? I’m wondering if some of the same issues that led to the Dem takeover of the governorship in Montana are at play in Idaho.

    thanks in advance.

  • Between the war in Iraq and now his delayed response to the Hurricane,he’s proven what many who vote democrat beleived during the election.He blew a chance to be a great leader and actually take decisive action in response to the disaster.He’s wasted his ‘political capital’;he once again didn’t lose any sleep worrying about the plight of his citezens-he rode his bike,went fishing and cut brush.He read a couple of books so his presidential library can have more than “My Pet Goat” in it.He did make
    time to meet with parents of soldiers in Iraq-as long as they supported him-but failed to address the issues that concern most of the American people as personified by Cindy Sheehan.Why doesn’t he send the military into the disaster area?Oh,yeah,I forgot-they’re fighting an ill-conceived and executed war in Iraq.His policies seem to have cost more American lives than anything the terrorists could have hoped for.He just keeps proving those of us on the left-are right.

  • Does anyone know how Bush’s pathetic low approval rate in the polls compares to the last President(s) who had such a poor rating? He has to be the close to the worst, if not the worst, in recent memory. A graph comparing the low points could be very enlightening.

  • Program on the emergence of civilization.

    “14 species of large animals capable of domesitcation in the history of mankind.
    13 from Europe, Asia and northern Africa.
    None from the sub-Saharan African continent. ”
    Favor.
    And disfavor.

    They point out Africans’ failed attempts to domesticate the elephant and zebra, the latter being an animal they illustrate that had utmost importance for it’s applicability in transformation from a hunting/gathering to agrarian-based civilization.

    The roots of racism are not of this earth.

    Austrailia, aboriginals:::No domesticable animals.

    The North American continent had none. Now 99% of that population is gone.

    AIDS in Africa.

    Organizational Heirarchy
    Heirarchical order, from top to bottom:

    1. MUCK – perhaps have experienced multiple universal contractions (have seen multiple big bangs), creator of the artificial intelligence humans ignorantly refer to as “god”
    2. Perhaps some mid-level alien management
    3. Mafia (evil) aliens – runs day-to-day operations here and perhaps elsewhere (On planets where they approved evil.)

    Terrestrial management:

    4. Chinese/egyptians – this may be separated into the eastern and western worlds
    5. Romans – they answer to the egyptians
    6. Mafia – the real-world interface that constantly turns over generationally so as to reinforce the widely-held notion of mortality
    7. Jews, corporation, women, politician – Evidence exisits to suggest mafia management over all these groups.

    Survival of the favored.

    Movies foreshadowing catastrophy
    1985 James Bond View to a Kill 1989 San Francisco Loma Prieta earthquake.

    Many Muslims are being used like the Germans and Japanese of wwii::being used to hurt others and envoke condemnation upon their people.

    I wish I could find a source to educate many Muslim fundamentalists. Muhammad is alive. He is a man chosen like Jesus Christ and, due to his historical status, will live forever.

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