Fun with exit polls

January 26, 2008

CNN has posted the exit polls from South Carolina, and given the large margin of Barack Obama’s victory, it probably won’t come as too big a surprise that the Illinois senator pretty much swept the contest in every way a candidate could.

There were, however, a few tidbits that jumped out at me:

* 61% of voters were women, and Obama beat Clinton among women 53% to 30%.

* Obama did extremely well among African-American voters, but he also easily defeated his rivals among non-blacks under the age of 30 — 52% for Obama, 28% for Clinton, 20% for Edwards.

* After excessive attention on the role of Bill Clinton on the campaign, 58% of South Carolina Dems said the former president’s role was “important” in the campaign (more than one in four said it was “very important”). Interestingly, though, there was no backlash — the more important a voter considered Bill Clinton’s involvement, the greater the likelihood the person supported Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

* For all the recent speculation about race and gender, here’s a tip about the real divide: age.

Among voters between 18 and 24, Obama beat Clinton, 66% to 25% (a 41-point gap).
Among voters between 25 and 29, Obama beat Clinton, 70% to 21% (a 49-point gap).
Among voters between 30 and 39, Obama beat Clinton, 62% to 23% (a 39-point gap).
Among voters between 40 and 49, Obama beat Clinton, 61% to 25% (a 36-point gap).
Among voters between 50 and 64, Obama beat Clinton, 51% to 26% (a 25-point gap).
Among voters 65 and older, Clinton beat Obama, 40% to 32% (an 8-point gap in the other direction).

Indeed, among those over 65, Obama was almost third, with Edwards just five-points behind him with 27%.

So, what’s up with older folks? Why did Obama cruise to easy victories in every age group except seniors? Discuss.

Update: To further the point about age, Obama won broad support among African-American voters in every age group, but his smallest margin came among blacks over the age of 60. Interesting.

This might be, and I emphasize MIGHT BE the legacy of SC’s racist history. Whites over 60 can’t see a Black as President and Blacks over 60 are afraid a Black candidate will lose because he’s Black. This is speculation on my part and I will in no way consider it an insult if anyone disagrees or if I’m wrong.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I’m white and an Obama supporter.

  • Good old fashioned butt kicking.
    Yes indeed.

    I expect this is the high point of his campaign.
    Super Tuesday won’t treat him so well…
    Almost certainly it is all Shrill from here on out.
    So rather than talk about what’s wrong with the old farts:

    Anybody got a feed to his victory speech?

    Gonna enjoy that wonderful oration while I can.
    Gonna inhale them fine purty words…
    Deeply.

    Gonna feel good…
    One last time…

    Before the hill chill sets it and turns this world to Bush stone.
    Brrr…..

  • ROTF, don’t be such a pessimist– we’ve got over a week until Feb 5. That’s a lot of time for things to turn around, and I really do think Barack can do it. I would be as pessimistic as you are if he had only won tonight’s primary with 10% of the vote. But this is a blowout. This will give him momentum in the other southern states (watch those polls change in the next few days, mark my words,) and I predict that, while he won’t win Cali, NY, or NJ, he’ll be able to make a strong showing, which will keep his delegate count high. If he wins the southern states and does well in the others on Feb 5 (and, of course, I’m fully expecting him to win big in Illinois, obviously,) it’ll still be a contest, even beyond Feb 5. Don’t give up so easy; Bill & Hill got shrill in the past week, and look what it got ’em? A good old-fashioned drubbing!

  • I think Stephen might have something there, specifically the premise that older blacks – while they perhaps have nothing against Obama or may even be inspired by his campaign – have no faith that a black man can win the White House. That’s less racist than it is a desire not to see another Republican take the office, although I believe their doubt is misplaced.

  • Excuse me! “60” should be “65” My BAD.

    FULL DISCLOSURE: I’m white, an Obama supporter and it appears I need reading glasses.

  • Anyone who can remember what Jim Crow was like is less likely to believe Obama could be president. I can’t really blame them.

  • Since I’m an “Old Fart”, I would have voted for Obama. I live in SE WI. I wonder how that breakdown of the young would look as applied to Stevenson or JFK. I knew Adlai: he was a house guest several times. But I never thought he’d have been a good President. Sarah and I worked for JFK.

    Do we have another youth revolution as we did then?

  • Come on now! What is the value of analyzing the SC vote? When you’ve got a black candidate in a primary where the majority of the voters are black and the white males aren’t known to cut women much slack. It doesn’t take rocket science to figure out the vote. SC has never reflected the typical makeup of our Country nor does their history. I’m not certain but I would bet that black candidates have always done well in SC. None of this is worthwhile until after Feb 5th.

  • Nice breakdown and all, but I wonder if the involvement of Bill Clinton might not have had more of a negative effect than you state. So the vote for people who thought Bill’s activities mattered did break gently in Hillary’s direction, true. But sixty-plus percent of voters said that Bill’s activities influenced their vote, and even if she managed to eke out a bare majority among that group, she still lost almost half of them. Which means that if Bill had stayed home they might have voted for her.

    Bill Clinton seems to want this even more than his wife (no mean feat). And that’s kinda scary and pathetic at the same time. But it’s understandable. I think everyone (including Bill) realizes that the Clinton years were a huge letdown, and Bill doesn’t want history to remember him just for his impeachment.

  • ***Among voters 65 and older, Clinton beat Obama, 40% to 32% (an 8-point gap in the other direction).***

    Wow. It’s really, really tempting to point out that the only SC age group supporting Hillary is also the age group that supports Bill O’Reilly. Coincidence? You be the judge….

  • McCain also does his best among the 60+ crowd. Any candidate who does so will lose more supporters by the GE.

  • Bottom Line: Hillary & Bill both got bitch slapped (and rightfully so after their actions in recent weeks)… Not only by the results but by Obama’s indirect comments during his speech. Signed. Sealed. Delivered.

  • The huge turn-out is wonderful, and the number of last-minute decisions in favor of Obama suggests that there is some room for him to show significant improvement in the short amount of time before February 5, even though time is very short and many of the polls look grim for him.

    Here are some statistics on turn-out so far, which are encouraging for Democrats no matter who in the nominee:

    Iowa:
    Dems: 239k, twice their previous record.
    Reps: also twice their previous record, but only 114k

    New Hampshire:
    Dems: 287k, vs 157k in 2000
    Reps: 238k, slightly less than last time

    Nevada:
    Dems: 116k
    Reps: 44k

    Michigan
    Dems: (meaningless)
    Reps: less than last time

    South Carolina:
    Dems, 371k with 71% of the precincts reporting, vs a total of 290k last time & expectations of 325k this time
    Reps: 446k, but 25% less than last time & 120k less than in 2000

  • Maybe older voters actually read up on the candidates positions. They don’t fall for sound bites and promises like they did when they were younger. I voted for the guy who isn’t taking money from the corporations that are sponsoring the other two candidates…

  • Maybe older voters actually read up on the candidates positions. -Jon Leslie

    I don’t think there is any evidence to suggest that older voters are more informed. When one considers internet usage, it is probably more reasonable to conclude that voters 35 and under are probably more likely to get information from alternative sources (ie not infortainment).

  • Hillary is gracious in defeat, is she not? No concession speech, just a quick “Congratulations” in the middle of a spiel in Tennessee. Do not anger The Queen of the Democratic party!

  • Since I am close enough to age 65, I will take a guess that this is the age group least comfortable with voting for a non-white male, and only comfortable voting for a white woman who is backed by a white male they recall voting for before. Sorry, but the upper end of the baby boom/war babies have never been comfortable with being the leading edge of change over the past 60 years as they have been. And for those older than 70, no matter how hard they try, there is a residual racism deep in there. Only 15% of my generation were actively involved in “the Sixties,” for the rest of them it might as well have remained the 50s, at least outside major coastal urban areas. Sorry fellow Auld Phartz, but I see it among you every day when I talk to you.

  • I’ve been in violation of the demographics as a male over 50 supporting Obama. I suspect that the older people get the harder it is to see someone much younger being the president. Unfortunately older voters also might be more likely to vote along racial lines.

    There also might be a small element based upon campaign strategy as they have been targeting younger voters and have assumed limited support among voters over 50. I wonder if this somewhat turns into a self-fulling prediction and if this strategy further decreases the number of votes among those they aren’t targeting.

  • So, what’s up with older folks? Why did Obama cruise to easy victories in every age group except seniors? — CB

    So I asked my — over 80, white — husband 🙂 He said that, older folk, being more experienced themselves, value experience, and Obama doesn’t have as much of it as Clinton (so, how come he was for Edwards, same as me?). But then, being the honest guy he is, he added that, as the twig is bent, so grows the tree. As a Southerner (Virginia born-and-bred) he grew up prejudiced. He’s been fighting it all his adult life, but it’s hard to eradicate. And the idea of a black president is just too much to stomach. Black Governor didn’t bother him a bit; quite the opposite. Black President is too much.

    It’s easier to tolerate a strong woman, because the history of the South is full of strong women. As, he said, is his own family — beginning with mother and sister, through both wives and down to daughter.

    I don’t know any black males over 65, but those in my own age group (55-60), seem to confirm what dnA and several others have said above; they cannot imagine that a black man could become a president of the US, what with some of the whites not being able to wrap their minds around the idea, as well as the traditional tensions between blacks and Latinos. And they’re so fed up with Bush, they can’t stomach the prospect of another 8 yrs of Repub rule, which they fear might happen if Obama gets the nomination. And Clintons aren’t half bad, had been OK with blacks in the past…

    BTW. An interesting chart of the poll standings of the 3 leading Dem contenders over the past year:
    http://www.americablog.com/2008/01/polls-show-clinton-support-plummeted.html

  • To follow up on my last post, the most recent number I’ve seen for the South Carolina Democratic turn-out (from the SC Dem Party website) was 532.5k, with 295k for Obama. In other words, Obama alone pulled in 5k more votes than the 290k that were cast for all the candidates in the last S. Carolina democratic primary.

    The polls suggest a tough ride for Obama on February 5, but if numbers like that hold up, I’m not sure that poll data is particularly meaningful. If the extra turn-out is strictly minority, it mightn’t amount to much in many of the February 5 states. However, Obama apparently did well across the board, except with old folks.

    Does anyone know if the high turn-out was attributable to unusual GOTV efforts, or did people just decide to participate on their own?

    Perhaps I’m being optimistic, but this has the feel of unmapped territory.

  • Three of the last SC polls were:
    ARG on Jan. 25, SurveyUSA on Jan. 24, and Zogby, on Jan. 25
    Their respective results were
    Obama, 39, 43, 41
    Clinton, 36, 30, 26
    Edwards, 22, 24, 19

    What actually happened was
    Obama 55.4
    Clinton 26.5
    Edwards 17.6

    At first glance, so much for the Bradley effect, unless someone shows that whites over-reported their actual support for Obama while blacks more than correspondingly under-reported theirs.

  • We have a long primary season ahead of us. You watch, the polls will shift somewhat toward Obama this week. He is not going to win every contest, but even the ones he doesn’t win will be closer than people were thinking.

  • One word…Wisdom.

    Second word…Experience

    Third word…I can’t remember where I put my glasses.

  • Youth trusts idealism. Age trusts experience…and that idealism thing…been there done that. Sorry, too old to be an Obamazoid.

  • At #19 TC buried the nail.

    At 57 and as an unrepentent, independent liberal who, at this point, supports Obama, my experience is similar to yours. I recall giving a speech at a national debate tournament in 69 about police brutalities against minorities and having the subject disparaged as tired, old news. I recall in the early 70s hearing the phrase ‘nobody said life was fair’ in student BS sessions. I recall the ‘hippies’ in my small midwestern town being about nothing but hedonism and drugs. I think that the whole baby-boomer group is less liberal(and always was) than is stereotypically perceived. The untenable mess that this country has become has happened on the BBs watch. Generational interests, which are necessarily short-sighted, must be overcome. Economic policies that favor the entrenched must give way for the country to maintain its vitality.

  • I don’t think it behooves the Obamabrats to denigrate the largest and most reliable voting group. Now injecting ageism into the game!

    Strange way to promote unity. Is euthanasia for the elderly in the works (a la P D James) to reduce medical costs?

    I have been waiting and waiting for Obama to outline, clearly and precisely, his views on free trade and the environment. His campaign site is vague. I have big issues with his economic advisors, especially Austan Goolsbee, a man closer to Bush’s heart than mine. George Will thinks Goolsbee is a great guy, tho.

    Maybe I missed something. Anyone out there know the details?

  • In spite of such loathsome aberrations as wacko right-wing College Young Republicans, there are some broad generalizations which hold true across time and across political campaigns. Younger people are, and are designed by nature to be, more adventuresome. They’re generally healthier, have more energy, seek more spontaneous fun. They don’t see the risks older people see (and remember from having lost a few). They know that if they’re wrong on the some point there’s always time later for course correction. Younger people with money to invest put it into stocks; older people put it into bonds. Younger people have hope; older people have seen some of their earlier hopes dashed. Younger people establish life partnership; older people have often broken a few of those. Younger people wonder where they’re headed; older people look increasingly only at where they’ve been. Younger people are not always “good” — the baby boom has been tagged the “me generation” while the WWII geezers have been described as the “best generation”. But where there’s youth there’s hope, or at least not resignation and despair. “Men do not quit playing because they grow old; they grow old because they quit playing.” ~Oliver Wendell Holmes

  • I’m over 60 and see the young green kids in my profession think that experience is almost a liability. This is a very sad thing.
    I see the Clinton haters use Clinton’s exposure to various tough problems over the years, then hold her struggles to solve these tough problems against her.
    Obama has not had that exposure… and get’s a clean bill of health because of it.
    Crazy.

  • there was no backlash — the more important a voter considered Bill Clinton’s involvement, the greater the likelihood the person supported Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

    Couldn’t it just as easily say,
    “the more a person supported Hillary Clinton’s campaign, the greater the likelihood that the voter considered Bill Clinton’s involvement “very important.” ???

  • I think we’re going to see a major shift in polls in the next few weeks. People across the board (and not just in South Carolina) were turned off by the kind of things being said by Bill and Hillary Clinton this week.

    This is anecdotal, but this morning in church, I must have talked to a dozen women, all over 40 and some over 65, who had been “on the fence” between Clinton and Obama. As of this morning, they’re all for Obama. Every one. And each one said that while they would love to see a woman president, it’s just not Hillary for them anymore — she’s too polarizing. And the country is sick of polarization.

    We all value Hillary’s experience, although she WAY overstates it. The thing is, we should all value Obama’s experience, too, which should not be discounted. He was successful in getting Republican support for many good pieces of legislation in the Illinois Legislature (insurance coverage for kids, videotaping of all police interrogations) that most people said would never get passed. They all did.

  • Because the “Greatest [sic] Generation” of South Carolina will never vote for a “negro”. Simple as that.

  • As a South Carolinian who hates the constant accusations of racism in the South, I still think that at least some of the drop-off is attributed to older whites who cannot stomach the idea of a black president. A relative of mine in that age bracket went on at length to me how if Obama were elected that he would be putting Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson in powerful cabinet positions and otherwise promoting the black man over the white man. Thankfully, as the results show, the majority of South Carolina does not hold such an outdated attitude.

  • Over 60: I can only speak about the woman vote. We have been waiting for SO LONG for a Woman President. Gender does trump race for us.

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