Record turn out at the polls, record high numbers of early voters and absentees, and the highest interest in a presidential election in over a generation.
Generally speaking, high interest in an election is usually associated with higher levels of voter turnout. This year, Gallup has measured dramatically higher levels of interest than in any recent presidential election year. Additionally, a much greater proportion of Americans are qualifying as likely voters than in previous election years. A comparison of Gallup historical data from recent elections suggests that turnout this year may well achieve levels not seen since the 1968 presidential election.
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Gallup typically assumes 50% turnout in its likely voter model as a starting point, and adjusts that as the interest indicators change. After increasing its turnout assumption to 55% in late July, around the time of the Democratic convention, Gallup increased it again to 60% in the Oct. 22-24 poll.
Clearly, then, the data indicate that voter turnout should exceed anything in recent U.S. history. The question that will be answered today is just how much higher turnout will be.
High turnout almost always suggests good news for the Dems, but to step back for a moment, it’s also good news for our democracy to see so many people participating in it.