Maybe it was the Shag Fund scandal. Perhaps it was all the lying. It very would could have been the Republican activists suddenly waking up recently and discovering, en masse, that he disagreed with them on the domestic policy issues they care about most, including abortion, gays, marriage, immigration, stem-cell research, and gun control.
Whatever the explanation, just as the presidential primary races enter the final stretch, Rudy Giuliani’s support is starting to tank.
Three weeks before the first contest of the 2008 campaign, Republicans remain sharply divided over whom to choose as their presidential nominee and which of the five leading candidates best embodies the core values of a fractured GOP, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani continues to lead the Republican field in the national poll, but his support is at its lowest point this year. Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, has more than doubled his support among likely GOP voters since early November and runs just behind Giuliani. […]
Among all Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, Giuliani’s national lead is as low as it has been since the campaign began. Among likely Republican voters, 25 percent now back Giuliani and 19 percent back Huckabee, whose support jumped from 9 percent last month. Romney ranks third at 17 percent, with Thompson at 14 percent and McCain at 12 percent. In the new poll, Giuliani is at his lowest level to date among conservatives, down nine points over the past month, to 19 percent.
In fact, let’s be more specific. Greg Sargent has a great chart that highlights the trend nicely, but Giuliani’s drop is practically across the board.
Among conservatives, over the last month, Giuliani’s support has gone from 28% to 19%. Among those closely following the presidential race, it’s dropped from 32% to 12%. Among independents, it was 38%, and now it’s 21%. Among men, Giuliani has gone from 37% in November to 23% in December.
I know it’s still relatively early in the process, and a lot can happen in the next few weeks, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to see how Giuliani’s campaign turns this around.
But, you’re thinking, this is just a national poll. Whether a presidential hopeful is first or fifth in a national poll is of little consequence if he or she excels in the early contests. Indeed, I’ve argued many times that the national surveys can change on a dime after voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina head to the polls.
Two points. First, the national polls are interesting when considering broad trends. And in this case, the broad trend is that Giuliani’s support is dropping quickly across the board.
Second, Giuliani is tanking in the early contests, too.
According to the very helpful data compiled by Pollster.com, Giuliani is a distant third in Iowa (and dropping), a distant second in New Hampshire (and dropping), and somewhere between second and fifth in South Carolina.
When Giuliani first started his campaign, a lot of us thought it was only a matter of time before his record caught up with him. I think we’re seeing it unfold that way now.