One of the underlying benefits of the Rudy Giuliani campaign’s decision to effectively skip all of the early primary/caucus contests is that it gives the campaign time to save its resources. The former mayor plans to actually try to win Florida on Jan. 29 and the Feb. 5 races, which means Giuliani can make a concerted effort to save his money, while his rivals try to win in places likes Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan.
Of course, there are also the underlying flaws. For one thing, when the former alleged “frontrunner” starts coming in sixth place in key contests, he starts to look like a loser. For another, this save-money strategy only works if the campaign has the money to save.
About a dozen senior campaign staffers for Rudy Giuliani are forgoing their January paychecks, a sign of possible money trouble for the Republican presidential candidate and last year’s national front-runner.
“We have enough money, but we could always use more money,” said Mike DuHaime, Giuliani’s campaign manager and one of those who now is working for free. “We want to make sure we have enough to win.” […]
DuHaime and other aides stressed that relinquishing pay was voluntary and was limited to senior staffers, many of whom already had contributed the maximum allowed by law to the campaign, $2,300. Aides said some people offered to give up their checks, prompting the campaign to then ask if others wanted to volunteer. They insisted no one was forced to work without pay.
“I want to do everything I can to make sure Rudy’s president, and I speak for a lot of the campaign when I say that,” DuHaime said. “None of us joined this campaign for money.”
That all sounds very nice, but it also sounds literally unbelievable. Sure, most campaign aides don’t sign on to get rich, but no one starts giving up their paychecks at a crucial moment in the process — when the pressure, hours, and commitment are at their most intense — unless the campaign is experiencing serious financial difficulties.
What kind of fiscal picture are we looking at here? According to the campaign, which may or may not be telling the truth, Giuliani had $12.7 million cash on hand as of two weeks ago, $7 million of which could be used for the primary.
But that was at the end of the fourth quarter. At the end of the third quarter, Giuliani had raised $45 million and had $11.6 million available for the primaries. As the AP notes, that means that Giuliani spent “nearly $5 million more than he took in during the last three months of the year.”
That wouldn’t necessarily be that bad, if he had anything to show for it. I suspect Romney’s, McCain’s, and Huckabee’s ledgers look relatively similar. But therein lies the rub: they were trying to win in the early contests. Giuliani claims to be taking a pass until the end of January — and he’s still running out of money.
Best of all, in order to seriously compete in those Feb. 5 contests, Giuliani will need about “$35 million to run one week of heavy levels of ads in the two dozen states.” Even with his top aides suddenly becoming “volunteers,” he almost certainly won’t have the money.
But, the campaign says, maybe he can raise the money between now and then? Perhaps, but then he runs into the other underlying flaw in the existing strategy — losing all the major contests, badly, tends to discourage potential donors. Who wants to bet on a horse that loses every race?
I know, I know, McCain looked like he was finished over the summer, and now he’s right where he wants to be. So why can’t Giuliani do the same thing? Because we’re at entirely different points in the calendar — McCain had the benefit of time, while Giuliani is just about out of time.