Global warming causes political peril for the GOP

As a matter of common sense, global warming shouldn’t be a political issue at all. Climate change represents a catastrophic threat to humanity, and the likely disasters won’t discriminate on the basis of political party.

And yet, this week, the WaPo ran a front-page story under the headline: “Climate Is a Risky Issue for Democrats.” Apparently, the idea is, after seven years of inaction and ignorance from the Bush administration, nearly all of the Democratic presidential candidates are offering bold proposals to combat global warming. The article suggests the public may not go for costly solutions.

In contrast to 2000 and 2004, when Gore and John F. Kerry played down their environmental records, these Democratic candidates have already begun advertising on climate change. As of mid-October, energy and global warming issues were second only to Iraq in terms of ad topics. Friends of the Earth, which endorsed Edwards for his aggressive climate change policy, also began running radio ads in New Hampshire on his behalf.

Democrats have promised to ease the pain by taking the money that would come from putting a price on carbon, whether through a tax or auctioning off pollution credits, and investing it in technological research, job training, tax credits for consumers who buy cleaner vehicles and subsidies for those hit hardest by rising electric bills. […]

Democrats’ boldness, however, could carry a political price. The eventual GOP presidential nominee is almost certain to attack Democrats over the huge costs associated with limiting emissions. “They will come at this hard,” said John Podesta, who heads the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, and sees an 80 percent reduction in greenhouse gases as necessary.

At first blush, the frame itself seems misguided. We’re all facing a dangerous crisis, and all of the leading Dems are showing real leadership by unveiling bold policy solutions. This, of course, is a bad thing, the WaPo’s piece suggests, because Americans aren’t actually interested in solutions, unless they’re painless.

As it turns out, the Post’s spin has the broader dynamic backwards.

The Politico notes a new study conducted by Environmental Defense, a group that supports limits on greenhouse gases, commissioned Republican pollster Whit Ayres who surveyed voters in the 49 most competitive House races. Ayres found that voters, particularly independents, prefer bold initiatives on the issue, and look askance at politicians who don’t.

Ayres seemed most surprised that independents and, to a lesser extent, Republicans wanted the U.S. to act even if China and India, two big polluters with rapidly growing economies, did not.

The swing district independent voters said they were much more likely to support a candidate who votes to cut carbon emissions.

Republican voters were surprisingly supportive of efforts to combat global warming but also made it clear they were much less likely to hold members of Congress accountable if they failed to act anytime soon.

Ayres found that Republicans broke into three groups: those who don’t believe global warming is real at all (about a quarter of the party); a large group who believes the challenge is real but is hesitant to embrace bold action, and a small-but-growing faction within the party that wants “specific, market-based solutions now.”

Greg Sargent added:

Yet despite the fact that lots of Republicans have reached this conclusion, somehow The Washington Post was only able to discover that this is a risky issue for Democrats. This illustrates once again that the default setting for many in the political media is still that Dems are always vulnerable; Dems are always at risk of getting too far ahead of public opinion; and Dems are always at risk of provoking a backlash from the same public that strongly agrees with them.

Stay tuned.

But bold solutions can be painless. Just find a way to make sure the cost comes out of the following obscene profits:

Q3, 2007 Earnings:

Exxon Mobil – $9.4 Billion
Royal Dutch Shell – $6.9 Billion
Total – $4.6 Billion
BP – $4.4 Billion

For a single quarter.

Heck taking a mere 10%, pocket change for these guys, off of those numbers would pay for incredibly bold programs. I’m having trouble seeing the problem.

  • First let me say a good word for supply side tax cuts.

    When you tax something you get less of it.

    So, if you tax coal and oil then people will use less of it.

    The big advantage of taxing coal and oil is that it will allow the government to cut other taxes.

    John Anderson was right back in 1979 and 1980.

    Raise the gas tax and cut social security taxes.

    The average worker will be better off.

    The country will use less coal and oil and produce less CO2.

    It is a win-win solution

  • One is facing the possible extinction of man, it is always better to go cheap. Worked so well for the people of Easter Island.

    Personally, I’d rather be alive and poorer than dead and rich.

    As for whining about China and India, well to be blunt, China and India will be paying for all their environmental excesses sooner than most people realize. The majority of their water supplies come from mountain based glaciers as they have no decent aquifers due to their population growth. As we have seen in with photographic evidence, those mountain glaciers are melting at an even faster clip than the polar ice caps (due to the smaller mass.) In perhaps 30-50 years (probably much sooner say 5-15 years), both India and China will be bone dry and in serious trouble. Think Georgia but with 2 Billion+ people.

  • the Post’s spin has the broader dynamic backwards

    That’s because the Post uses the Broder dynamic instead.

  • We’re all facing a dangerous crisis, and all of the leading Dems are showing real leadership by unveiling bold policy solutions.

    Sorry, CB, you’re all wet here. “Bold” would mean offering real solutions with real technology that we have. “Bold” does not mean calling for 60-90% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 while offering no real way to get there except for deployment of technologies that are either not invented yet or incapable of getting anywhere close to there. If you like pie in the sky, then you’ll be well-filled.

    I’ve got a manuscript about ready to go off to the publisher that lays out an actual step-by-step plan toeliminate emissions worldwide by 2050. The candidates all talk about it like all we have to worry about is U.S. warming, and even then their proposals wouldn’t get us there. But if we cut U.S. emissions to zero without the rest of the world doing the same, we’ll be royally screwed anyhow.

    Bold they are not. They’re telling you what they think you want to hear. Gauzy dreamscapes with spinning windmills and bunnies hopping around aren’t going to do it. World energy demand is due to double by mid-century, but in fact will probably go even higher than that because we’re going to need massive amounts of energy for canal and desalination projects to provide water for the extra nearly 3 billion people that are predicted to be here by then. If you like endless resource wars, over water as well as energy supplies, just keep dreaming that solar, wind, and biofuels are going to do it. Otherwise, look for a real solution.

    As for my book and the candidates, none of them seem at all interested despite the fact that some of the world’s best physicists—including directors of our own national laboratories—have endorsed it. Could it be that putting the fossil fuel companies out of business is a step too far? Don’t call them bold, CB. That is way too generous. Talk is cheap.

    And don’t get me started on biofuels! Read the OECD report, read the Oxfam report, look at the comments by the UN representative on the right to food, who calls using cropland for growing fuel “a crime against humanity.” Yet with Iowa having their ridiculous influence on our broken political system, and farmers there scoring big on high corn prices because of the biofuel subsidies (which are nearly all going to ADM to the tune of 51¢/gallon), all the Dem candidates are pretending like the “biofuel revolution” is just dandy.

  • Neil, your argument is of on several points:
    – “When you tax something you get less of it.” Not necessarily. Go back to Econ 101 and reread the chapters on elastic and inelastic demand. Depending on how high the taxation is and on what product or service it is for, it may or may not have any significant effect.
    – Second, show me one person around you who uses coal. We use the electricity generated from coal. Taxing coal will not reduce the amount of coal people buy because we don’t personally use it.
    – Carbon taxes and other efforts to raise funds are not for the purpose of offsetting other government revenues, it is to generate new revenues to be used specifically to research, engineer and build new technologies to move the nation and world past our carbon-intensive energy sources. Does coming up with a solution to out carbon-spewing lifestyle rest just on the backs of Americans? Absolutely not. It would help if the Bush administration could develop good working relations with the rest of the to develop reveue streams and cooperative efforts to implement solutions. The past seven years of Bushco telling the rest of the planet it can f*ck off and die doesn’t help this matter.
    – The solution to undoing our momentum to radically shift this planet’s climate through our behaviors is not simply using a little less coal and oil, we need to get off these addictions completely. Your ideas do nothing to move us away from these two vices, but are typical of people who advocate silly little palliatives that are ultimately ineffective in solving anything other than PR problems.

    What we need is bravery and action and that is simply something neither “the market” nor Republicans will have the gumption to do. Conservatism is about keeping the status quo and protecting entrenched interests. The solution requires doing away with the outmoded and developing new opportunities that will expand the economy into new, sustainable sectors. We need some courage, not selfish little tax cuts and waiting for the problem to solve itself.

  • Wow, the moon is blue today. I find myself agreeing with neil, who I rarely agree with 100%, and disagreeing completely with petorado, with whom I almost always agree!

    Taxing carbon fuels is the surest way to promote all the alternatives. The market forces will do all the work, and by going after the large industries you can actually effect a change without getting into a huge game of regulatory whack-a-mole.

    All they need to do is calculate the cost of global warming, and put the true cost of every fuel onto the fuels themselves. The market will do the rest.

  • Specific, Market Based Solutions to Global Warming: A Proposal in Three Parts.

    Part One: An emergency crash program to develop permanent alternatives to the consumption of fossil fuels. Hydroelectric plants, wind turbines, and nexgen solar concepts are a beginning. Add to this the current technologies in heating via catalytic burning of waste products. Start funding high-speed rail corridors for passenger and freight services as an alternative to the glut of massive aircraft. Set aside the boogeyman image of nuclear power and develop safer, cleaner methodologies of utilizing the atom—specifically, fusion reaction.

    Side-features of developing viable alternatives to petroleum will be the necessitated declawing of the re-emergent Soviet Bear, found currently in the guise of Russia’s Vladymir Putin. It would also serve as a catalyst to financially starve out the developing nuclear programs in Syria and Iran; likewise denying second-tier terrorist organizations in the ME of much-needed Western capital to fund their activities.

    Part Two: Rebuild America’s industrial base. Not just small, high-profit portions, but the whole thing—from disposable diapers to diodes; from clothing to computers. This should expand to include a total rethinking of the transportation sector as it relates to intra/interurban travel. Clean sources of electricity would provide the means to reinvent electric powered mass transit. Further development in computer technologies will expand the potential for real time audiovisual communications, allowing a greater portion of America’s workforce to work from home. Reducing the number of centralized-employment facilities reduces energy consumption and opens up more land for food-based agriculture and reforestation.

    This reconstruction effort would effectively eliminate unemployment/underemployment in the United States, much as the efforts of the Roosevelt Administration did in the 1930s. America would, as a result, find itself in a shiny new wardrobe of safe bridges, “green” factories, and affordable/efficient mass transportation. The increased employment would “cascade” into more tax revenues to eventually reverse the increased taxations initially necessary for the “national upgrade,” and would immediately begin pouring additional revenues into local economies—thus gradually reducing community-based dependence on federal monies.

    Part Three: In regards to China and India, a massive reconstruction of America’s infrastructure, commercial conceptualizations, and industrial base makes these “giga-mass” producers of pollution a moot point. If America establishes its own domestic productivity, the result will be the implosion of the Chinese/Indian manufacturing base—and the titanic quantities of pollution emanating from that base. China will not spend itself into bancruptcy, stripping off entire mountaintops for coal to feed the thousands of coal fired power plants no longer needed. China will not pour millions of gallons of industrial waste into its rivers as it produces lead-based toys and antifreeze-based food items thatthe American consumer no longer buys.

    It should also be noted that, in order for such a bold proposal to move forward, that the total rebuilding must include the entire “Americas” region, due to the oscillation of agricultural/heating/travel seasons. What we will no longer import from China and India can come from Central and South America, Mexico, and the island nations of the Caribbean.

    This will require an immediate normalization of relations with Cuba and Venezuela.

  • What people in Washington don’t know is something lowly gardeners have been noticing for the last few years. Plant hardiness zones have astonishingly shifted so that plants once confined to growing in southern areas are able to survive farther north now.

    Take a look at the Hardiness Zones published by the Arbor Day Foundation. Press Play to see the change.

    The point is that we’re already in the midst of observable climate change. Stay busy, away from nature in climate controlled buildings, and focused on protecting your political hide, and you won’t notice it. But many other people do, so it’s a case of Washington blindness once more.

  • what anney said is exactly correct. i grow extensive flower gardens, and i am now able to grow plants that would never survive in our frozen winters. my (unofficial) estimate is that we have probably changed by an entire climate zone.

  • I think it’s true though, at the end of the day, that Americans as a general population don’t want to have to sacrifice anything in order to change their lifestyle in order to help combat climate change. Americans are consumer based and generally are all after the immediate return, instant gratification. I think many Americans think the policy proposals by Edwards and Obama are generally good ideas, but when it comes time for them to actually sacrifice some of their way of life for the broader good of humanity, I think this is a more difficult sell because in the end people care about money and what they have at the end of the month. In today’s middle class you can’t blame them for this. So many people are struggling to make ends meet and when they have a choice between putting food on the table and paying more taxes in order to support risky environmental policies, food on the table will always come first.

  • I don’t know what President Lindsay is proposing (nuclear?), but I don’t share his skepticism about developing new technologies, especially solar. I keep thinking of 1957 when Sputnik embarrassed us. Twelve years later, in 1969, men landed on the moon. We certainly have enough resources to do a massive developmental job – look at what we’ve wasted in Iraq so far. Look at what Bush has proposed to waste sending men to Mars to hit golf balls. Look at what that military-industrial complex is eating up.

    What we lack is the will. We’re not a can-do nation anymore. We’re a don’t-want-to nation. We’ve allowed corporate America and the super rich to take over the country and run it into the ground for profit. We can change that. But I don’t think we will, unless something drastic happens.

    I agree with President Lindsay that nothing proposed so far is bold, and that we need to get off fossil fuels entirely, before the oil runs out, and we have to do it before we start fighting wars for what’s left of it (isn’t that what Iraq’s about, in major part? Of course it is. If we don’t get off oil, we have to steal it, because we don’t have much here.)

    I think the biggest problem, the major hurdle, is that we just aren’t convinced yet about the magnitude of the threat. It’s just not computing. We don’t believe it. We accept it intellectually, but we don’t yet believe it viscerally. It’s too fantastic, too mind blowing to absorb, and so we minimize it internally, all of us.

    I think we need to look at the crisis as an opportunity, not as a disaster that needs World War II level sacrifice. Getting off fossil fuels, developing limitless sources of clean energy, providing everyone in the world with a standard of living like ours, limiting population to what the earth’s resources are capable of generating, are lofty, positive goals that we ought to be seeking irrespective of global warming. Yet we’re not. Why not? Because short term corporate greed is driving us into the ground. All we need to do is turn that around, and to find leaders, like Al Gore, who will take us there.

    I am just so sick of this greed based war mongering society of ours. It’s time for a change.

  • just bill

    Same thing here. I grow most of the summer vegetables we eat, and my hardiness zone is now an 8, whereas it’s a colder 7 on the old hardiness maps. Some plants once classified as annuals grow as perennials now — they don’t die off in the fall because of the cold. It’s also having an impact on insect migrations, including pests. Fire ants are moving steadily northward – they apparently don’t survive where it freezes often.

  • Ayres found that Republicans broke into three groups: those who don’t believe global warming is real at all (about a quarter of the party); a large group who believes the challenge is real but is hesitant to embrace bold action, and a small-but-growing faction within the party that wants “specific, market-based solutions now.”

    This is unsurprising to me. That “about a quarter” of the Republican party are the nutjobs who just repeat whatever talking point Rush Limbaugh throws at them. Gods I’m related to some of these folks.

    The middle group are the lower-case ‘c’ conservatives – bold action scares the crap out of them no matter what kind of bold action it is. Anything that makes the country less like it was when they were 13 years old is something to be wary of. Unlike the first group, they can be brought around, but the actions they want to take are ones that would have been appropriate 10-15 years ago instead of now.

    The last group are the entrepenuers and entrepenuers at heart. They actually like bold action – when you can make a buck off of it. They’ve seen that “going green” is going to lead to more “green” in people’s pockets and so they’re all for it. These are the ones to watch out for – they’ll be proposing some out-there schemes that may look reasonable, but end up with perverse incentives and hidden costs that all end up with more profits to themselves. They’re like the scorpion in the old folk tale – they just can’t help themselves, it’s in their nature. But they’re helpful since they can get the small-c conservatives to start thinking about change.

  • You can use market forces to help stifle demand, but ultimately that have a greater impact on the poorest among us where a more significant portion of income is used to pay for utilities (heat, electricity, gas).

    The people we need to hit are the oil companies for raping the population’s collective wallet, the 115 pound women I always see driving H3s by themselves, and the morons gung-ho on starting unnecessary wars.

  • I wish the WP would use some evidence to develop such a low opinion of us.

    Turns out, we do want to do what’s right. It’s the Post who wants things painless and easy.

  • And, come to think of it… what do you call it if a party calls for proposals that require sacrifice for the good of the nation, at possible risk to their own careers?

    For the WP, it would be the term “Sap”.

  • hark @15: I don’t know what President Lindsay is proposing (nuclear?), but I don’t share his skepticism about developing new technologies, especially solar.

    Actually, hark, what I’m proposing is three technologies, one of them being Integral Fast Reactors that could use up every bit of “nuclear waste” in the world in a few years. As to solar, it’s not a question of research money or technology, but a question of physics. To quote a physicist who helped me on my book, former director of one of our national laboratories:

    The reason is simple. Solar energy is dilute. Once it’s collected the various applications become possible. But to collect it in the amounts required to make a real difference is a huge difficulty. There is no short cut, no technology can be invented to surmount it: massive areas of the earth’s surface must be devoted to it. Solar energy has been well understood for over a century; the amount of solar energy falling on the planet is known, fixed and unchanging. The areas required for collectors, if solar was to make a significant contribution on the scale of present energy needs, are, in turn, on the scale of entire states.

    Efficiency increases to the limit the physics allows do not alter the issue. The scientific and engineering realities are plain. The amounts of materials, even cheap materials, the land areas occupied, the maintenance required, and also, more than possibly, the lawsuits brought by the very environmental industry promoting solar, make the whole solar enterprise on the scale required to power the nation a dream, not a practical reality, not now, not in the future.

    Can solar help? Sure. So can wind and hydro. But with energy demand doubling (or more), the International Energy Agency predicts that in the next 30 years or so solar and wind will contribute about 2-3% of electrical needs. Where will the other 97% come from? The IEA might be wrong, but they can’t be THAT wrong.

    As to your comment: Getting off fossil fuels, developing limitless sources of clean energy, providing everyone in the world with a standard of living like ours, limiting population to what the earth’s resources are capable of generating, are lofty, positive goals that we ought to be seeking irrespective of global warming. Yet we’re not. Why not? Because short term corporate greed is driving us into the ground.

    These are all goals that are easily attainable, and that’s what my book is about. Not only that, but we can get there without any sacrifice at all. In fact, we would pay less for energy than we pay now, and everybody in the world would have more than enough. And resources that provide us with the standard of living we enjoy would be 100% recyclable, thus assuring plenty for everyone. The technology is not the problem. The problem is political, driven in large part by corporate greed, but certainly abetted by ignorance and ideology, as much on the left as on the right.

  • It’s nice to see so many great ideas proposed here. The unfortunate truth is that the only way to get Americans to do anything is to hit them in the pocket book. If there isn’t any negative cost involved to them, they don’t want to change it.

    Take ALL subsidies away from the Coal, Oil, and Ethanol industries, and you’ll find the prices of electricity and gas at the pump rise accordingly. Sure a lot of our products we depend on on a daily basis will become more expensive, but what’s so bad about not consuming all the things we think we want instead of need?

    As mentioned in an earlier post, the poorer people would carry a heavier burden, which is unfortunate, but just eliminating the Bush tax cuts to the rich, and re-introduce some social programs to help the less fortunate can take care of that.

    Sure Republicans will be up in arms, but a lot of republicans are poor as well, and will see that they can actually benefit from progressive policies instead of sticking to their idiotic social/Christian conservative values they insist on forcing on everybody.

  • For starters, the Safe Climate Act – the piece of legislation that should be passed within the first 100 days of the new Democratic Administration and Congress, does not include any “job killers” or “economy wreckers.”

    Fact: over the past ten years, using the cap on carbon dioxide emissions and the cap-and-trade system to encourage lowering of emissions, the Europeans have achieved a 2 percent-per-year reduction, which is exactly what this bill calls for. I don’t think anyone has read recently of the European economy being destroyed by this – in fact, the most recent news I read is that they’re doing far better than we are (the dollar is now .6224 of a Euro – certainly one vote about which economy works and which doesn’t).

    The bill also calls for light trucks, SUVs and automobiles to get an overall average of 36mpg by 2024, which Detroit (and John Dingell) claim is impossible and substitue a bill that calls for a “40% improvement” in mileage by 2020 – this means that the big ugly Toyota Tundra pickup truck, which now gets 10mpg, would have to get a whopping 14mpg by 2020. Whippy-doo. 30 years ago, using an engine based on a frickin’ 1927 patent for an airplane engine, my Honda Civic got 48mpg on the road and 38mpg in town, and met all environmental regs of the time without a catalytic converter. We are not talking rocket science here. Additionally, with $100/barrel oil,. Toyota Tundras, all SUVs, and all the rest of the big ugly Republicanmobiles won’t be in production in 5 years, since no one will have that much money to fill the tank to drive to work! The market will take care of getting rid of those clunkers.

    I’ll bet Nixon is still wishing the current Washington Post editorial board had been around 35 years ago – he’d still be President for Life. As Bugs Bunny would say, “whatta buncha maroons!!”

    Further fact: I do calling around the country for organizations supporting this legislation. I have yet to run across anyone who – when the bill is explained to them – thinks it’s bad. To the contrary, the most common remark is “that’s a good start.” And I am not talking to people who are dyed-in-the-wool enviromentalists to begin with.

    Why are these people such fucking idiots??????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Global warming is the biggest hoax ever to be perpetrated on the masses and Al Gore is a big freakin’ fat idiot and huckster.

    Anyone who believes in it likely believes in the tooth fairy, or worse, God.

    Read it an weep: Global warming is a scam with an agenda.
    Global warming, and cooling, are natural events over which we have little control.
    The scam about global ‘cooling’ in the 70s has become obvious now, and the same will happen with this.
    But for now, it’s Al Gore’s ‘convenient lie’.

    Wednesday, November 07, 2007
    Weather Channel Founder: Global Warming ‘Greatest Scam in History’

    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_about_global_warming/

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