For all its dissembling, the White House has actually been fairly clear about the purpose of Bush’s “surge” policy — more U.S. troops would offer Iraqi political leaders some “breathing room” to achieve reconciliation. From there, sectarian conflicts would ease, and some semblance of stability would emerge.
It all sounds very nice, except the policy hasn’t worked, and about 11 months after the administration started implementing the surge, Iraq has actually slid backwards on political reconciliation. Indeed, the administration laid out a series of fairly specific benchmarks, to measure the success of its policy, and the vast majority of the goals are nowhere near complete.
The Bush gang has apparently decided to respond to the failed goals by — you guessed it — changing the goals.
With American military successes outpacing political gains in Iraq, the Bush administration has lowered its expectation of quickly achieving major steps toward unifying the country, including passage of a long-stymied plan to share oil revenues and holding regional elections. […]
The White House has been elated by the drop in violence since the increase in American forces, now 162,000 troops. Public comments by President Bush and his aides, though, have been muted, reflecting frustration at the lack of political progress, a continuation of a pattern in which intense American efforts to promote broader reconciliation have proved largely fruitless.
There have been signs that American influence over Iraqi politics is dwindling after the recent improvements in security — which remain incomplete, as shown by a deadly bombing Friday in Baghdad. While Bush officials once said they aimed to secure “reconciliation” among Iraq’s deeply divided religious, ethnic and sectarian groups, some officials now refer to their goal as “accommodation.”
Yesterday, Ambassador Ryan Crocker said, “This is going to be a long, hard slog” — which, coincidentally, are the exact same words Don Rumsfeld used to describe the crisis in Iraq more than four years ago.
And all of this comes, of course, just a month after Iraqi leaders conceded that reconciliation just isn’t going to happen.
But don’t worry, the administration has a plan.
The Bush gang has decided to play small-ball.
Instead, administration officials say they are focusing their immediate efforts on several more limited but achievable goals in the hope of convincing Iraqis, foreign governments and Americans that progress is being made toward the political breakthroughs that the military campaign of the past 10 months was supposed to promote.
The short-term American targets include passage of a $48 billion Iraqi budget, something the Iraqis say they are on their way to doing anyway; renewing the United Nations mandate that authorizes an American presence in the country, which the Iraqis have done repeatedly before; and passing legislation to allow thousands of Baath Party members from Saddam Hussein’s era to rejoin the government. A senior Bush administration official described that goal as largely symbolic since rehirings have been quietly taking place already.
Got that? The administration will push Iraq to take some modest steps, which they were going to take anyway. When these events occur, White House officials will say, “See? Look at all the political progress!” and hope people are too dumb to know the difference.
Two months ago, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said we would see “a major breakthrough” within “weeks” on political reconciliation in Iraq, which he believes is unfolding at “breakneck speed.”
Now that goal is so unattainable, we’re not even trying to reach it anymore.