GOP throws DeWine over the ‘firewall’

October 16, 2006

At this point, the Republican establishment knows it’s going to lose ground in the Senate; it’s just a question of how many seats and whether it’s enough to give Dems the majority. Last week, the RNC leaked word that it’s adopting a “[tag]firewall[/tag]” strategy for the rest of the season — Republicans would cut their losses on races they now expect to lose, but invest heavily in just enough winnable races to keep the chamber in Republican hands.

As of a week ago, the firewall was going to be built around Sen. Jim Talent (Mo.), Sen. Mike [tag]DeWine[/tag] ([tag]Ohio[/tag]), and GOP candidate Bob Corker (Tenn.). As of this week, one of the three has already been catapulted to the other side of the firewall.

Senior Republican leaders have concluded that Senator [tag]Mike DeWine[/tag] of Ohio, a pivotal state in this year’s fierce midterm election battles, is likely to be heading for defeat and are moving to reduce financial support for his race and divert party money to other embattled Republican senators, party officials said.

The decision to effectively write off Mr. DeWine’s seat, after a series of internal Republican polls showed him falling behind his Democratic challenger, is part of a fluid series of choices by top leaders in both parties as they set the strategic framework of the campaign’s final three weeks, signaling, by where they are spending television money and other resources, the Senate and House races where they believe they have the best chances of success.

While the Republicans are effectively conceding Ohio, the firewall strategy will probably now include Virginia, where Sen. George Allen (R) is in a fierce contest with Jim Webb (D), which the GOP did not expect to be competitive at all up until fairly recently.

Up until fairly recently, the conventional wisdom suggested that Dems would need to really thread the needle to win back the Senate. Considering the latest results in the broader context, it looks as if Republicans are in just as challenging a spot.

Using National Journal’s rankings as a fairly accurate guide, these are the eight more competitive Senate races in the country.

1. Pa. (Santorum-R)
2. Mont. (Burns-R)
3. Ohio. (DeWine-R)
4. R.I. (Chafee-R)
5. Mo. (Talent-R)
6. N.J. (Menendez-D)
7. Tenn. (Open-R)
8. Va. (Allen-R)

Menendez is ahead in New Jersey and seems to be gaining momentum at the right time, suggesting that the Senate majority will rest on Republicans defending Republican seats.

Based on the latest strategy and polls, the GOP establishment is practically ready to concede the top four races, right off the bat (polls show the Dem candidate ahead in each). Missouri is pretty much tied; so is Virginia; while Ford is ahead in Tennessee.

In other words, three weeks before Election Day, based on Republican concessions, Dems are already two-thirds of the way to their goal of going +6 for the cycle. Left with no other choice, the GOP strategy is spend like crazy in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia, and then hope to win two of those three. It sounds kind of risky? It is.

As Publius put it, “If you’re in Virginia, Tennessee, or Missouri, you’re at Ground Zero — and if you’ve had an itching to get involved in campaigns, no time like the present.”

And next week, the fire line pulls back to Nevada, Arizona, and Connecticut.

  • I don’t think Corker is going to win for the Republican’ts, though I understand why they hope he will.

    As for Virginia, I’ve finally seen DSCC ads attacking Allen (rather well, too) for whining about the race being about his personality and wanting it to be about issues (where he’s almost universally wrong). But it’s an DSCC ad. I still want to see ads with Jim Webb in them that aren’t being put out by the Allen campaign. Though I suppose Allen is giving Webb a lot of name recognition 😉

    “And next week, the fire line pulls back to Nevada, Arizona, and Connecticut.” Aeolus

    If it does, that would be great. I’d love to see the NRSC defending Joe Lieberman.

  • I tried to do my unscientific survey of electoral signs in Nelson Co Virginia this morning and was at around 31 each when I hit the county seat of Lovingston (population – less than 1000) and there were so many signs in one area I couldn’t count & drive at the same time. I have this mental picture of people sneaking out in the middle night to stick their sign in front of the other people’s signs and there were so many of them they must have been there the same night! It made me laugh.

  • I think that Webb will probably be able to win by letting Allen self-destruct, but I agree it would be better if he was willing to argue more reasons why people should vote for him and not just against Allen.

    I also agree that Kyl is more beatable than people think, and is my pick for the primary “He can’t lose… but he did” story.

    Two questions for candidates that could clinch the election for them.

    Lamont: “Joe, do you have as much integrity as Strom Thurmond? When he switched parties, he resigned and sought re-election as a Republican. Are you willing to pledge that, if at any time during your term you caucus with the Republicans, you will do the same thing?”

    McCaskill: “Sen. Tallent, are you willing to repudiate any support from people who advocate the whipping and beating of infants as a way of rearing them? I specifically refer to James Dobson, but also other ‘so-called Christians’ who suggest such things in child-rearing manuals. Or do you consider such tactics — not merely spanking, but using sticks and pieces of plastic tubing on children as young as fifteen months — acceptable rather than abusive?”

    For reference to such manuals, I’ll cite my own article on them:
    http://saltosobrius.blogspot.com/2006/10/jim-benton-on-bible-based-baby-beating.html
    which contains numerous quotes from Dobson and others.

    I think this question, which may not be strictly political, but which goes to the question of the humanity of candidates, could be used against many people supported by Dobson and the religious right.

  • VA and MO are the most worrisome. In both states there’s a GREAT opportunity to win seats, but both McCaskill and Webb need to up the ante with strong attacks on the incumbents.

    Give ’em hell the truth. If we do so WE WILL WIN!

  • Am I the only one who finds it odd that the GOP would be pulling out of the Ohio Senate race? If one is to look at the polls it is still competitive with Brown having a single digit lead in most polls. The only conclusion I can draw is that the GOP must: 1) have much worse internal polls; and 2) they have reached the conclusion that the dynamics in Ohio are so poisonous that DeWine can not survive under any circumstances. If so it bodes very well for the Congressional challengers as well.

  • Dems need 6; there’s a real potential here for 7. This could effectively disenfranchise Lieberman. As the first-ever member of the CfL party, I don’t think he’d be entitled to any committee memberships. Dems could shun him outright, and leave him either stalemeted in a corner, or force him to cross the aisle and reveal his “true” colors.

    Darth Lieberman—Dark Lord of the Reich….

  • I have a hunch the Missouri race is just starting to lean for McCaskill. She had a strong showing at their first debate in St. Louis, which most observers called in her favor. It also left the wingnuts scrabbling for something to say about the debate. So far the best they could come up with is she’s getting botox treatments.

    Two questions for candidates that could clinch the election for them …

    McCaskill: “Sen. Tallent, are you willing to repudiate any support from people who advocate the whipping and beating of infants as a way of rearing them? I specifically refer to James Dobson, but also other ‘so-called Christians’ who suggest such things in child-rearing manuals. Or do you consider such tactics — not merely spanking, but using sticks and pieces of plastic tubing on children as young as fifteen months — acceptable rather than abusive?”

    That would probably work well in St. Louis and Kansas City. But you’re talking about a state where rural school districts still use corporal punishment with parental approval. We’re staunch “spare the rod, spoil the child” supporters here.

  • Have there been any studies showing a correlation between amount spent on political ads and elections? To most people political ads are real irritations wherever they show up and have no persuasive power whatsoever. I suspect wider forces overwhelm mere advertising.

  • Oh, and dmh….

    Here in Ashtabula County (OH—northeast corner, and a VERY Republican county), the campaign signs are about 10:1 favoring Brown. There are a lot of signs starting to pop up in some places for GOP candidates on the local level—but very few of even these people are displaying D’Whine signs.

    I saw a total of 6 D’Whine signs over the weekend, compared to probably 60 or 70 Brown signs….

  • Talk about yer bonfire of the vanities. I like the idea of Refugs on a fire, I’ll bring marshmallows is someone else will bring graham crackers and chocolate bars.

    Of course, some of those funds might be diverted to pay off DieVote…

    Too bad the majority of GOP members decided to spend their time in power guzzling from the Fountain of Kool-Aid that pours from the Presidential bladder, cramming money into any hole they can find and otherwise behaving like unpleasant pirates and zombies. Just think, if they had instead done a little more governing, a little less rolling in big piles of dough, a little less gay-baiting, a little less lying us into a war, a little less lying to us about everything else, such desperate measures mightn’t be necessary.

    Ha ha ha ha, too bad muthafucka!

  • What if the Republicans already know that DeWine will win Ohio the same way Bush did two years ago? Or do I sound like a conspiracy nut?

  • “What if the Republicans already know that DeWine will win Ohio the same way Bush did two years ago? Or do I sound like a conspiracy nut? ” – chrenson

    Not to my mind you don’t.

  • I could have sworn that just a few years ago the GOP plan was to contest every race to win the Congress and teh Dems were trying to get the most bang for their buck in the competitive districts. Seems the roles have reversed.

    It will be interesting to see how this plan will work and what it will involve. Will it be all “rile up the base” and GOTV since these states have Rep. majorities? If the candidates messages thus far have not put them ahead I’m not sure that just shouting them louder through the RNC is going to help these candidates.

    Headline: “GOP to spend all available money on Racist in Virginia!”

  • Brainiac:
    I would agree if Dobson were merely suggesting hitting school age children. Here are some quotes. (I’ll point out that these attitudes are disgusting even some VERY conservative Christian home-schooling mothers. That is the description of “Stop The Rod.”
    http://StopTheRod.net
    who were the first to publicize Dobson’s quotes.) In the following, emphasis is mine.

    Dobson describes a mother shaking her 3-year-old for spitting. The child spat again. This was “embarrassing” to the mother; she was “too weak or tired or busy to win.” (Three years may be too old for shaken baby syndrome. Maybe.) p. 28

    Dobson says “spanking should be of sufficient magnitude to cause genuine tears.” p. 35

    Dobson’s wife whipped their 15 month old daughter for going onto the patio in the rain. Dobson says to show “parental warmth after such discipline” and to have a “loving conclusion to the disciplinary encounter.” p. 36

    Dobson recommends painful squeezing of the trapezius muscle on the neck to obtain “instant obedience.” p. 36

    Dobson says “sick and deformed” children can be hit too. p. 57

    Dobson recommends using switches and paddles to hit children. p. 64

    Dobson recommends starting whipping at age 15-18 months, and “there is no magical time at the end of childhood when spanking becomes ineffective.” p. 65

    Dobson recommends hitting a toddler when he “defies his parents’ spoken commands”. He advises to hit toddlers when they have tantrums, and when a toddler “hits his friends”. Toddlers should be “taught to obey.” Toddlers can be given a “firm rap on the fingers.” p. 66

    Spank children if their bedwetting is an “act of defiance.” p. 68

    If a child cries more than a few minutes after being spanked, hit them some more. p. 70

    If spanking a child doesn’t produce obedience, a parent needs to “outlast him and win, even if it takes a few rounds.” Parents must always punish “acts of defiance.” p. 71

    (I should mention that Dobson is comparitively ‘liberal’ on this matter, compared to people like The Pearls, Ted Tripp and the Fugates, among others.)

    And I will admit that I am hoping that once one candidate uses this, others will follow suit.

  • Seems like NJ, MD, and WA aren’t out of the woods yet and MI is still isn’t locked down. That’s still a lot of defense to play while trying to grab 6-7 GOP seats. And, as 2004 showed us, Dems can’t rely on the “undecideds break for the challenger” rule to work its magc and deliver the senate. It could still very easily come down to the dems winning 4-5 but losing 1 or 2 and the GOP ending up with a very slim majority that’s still workable thanks to the strong arm of Mitch.

  • Am I the only one who finds it odd that the GOP would be pulling out of the Ohio Senate race? If one is to look at the polls it is still competitive with Brown having a single digit lead in most polls. The only conclusion I can draw is that the GOP must: 1) have much worse internal polls; and 2) they have reached the conclusion that the dynamics in Ohio are so poisonous that DeWine can not survive under any circumstances.

    I’m afraid I’m in the same tinfoil hat territory as Chrenson & Lance (12 & 13). Of all the states to bail on in a close race, this looks altogether too incomprehensible unless one figures in the Diebolding of Ohio being in the bag.

    On that other off-topic topic of disciplining children, this point from Dobson must look unbelievably absurd:

    Spank children if their bedwetting is an “act of defiance.” p. 68

    I would just like to point out that some people, including my college-educated yet still fundie brother, take advice like this to heart. I could hardly believe it when I found out that he spanked his daughter for wetting the bed! Then, being a good Dobsonite, he allegedly was careful to include a “loving conclusion to the disciplinary encounter.” Of course there was no defiance whatsoever involved in the “offense” but being unable to solve the bedwetting problem (or let it run its course, which is the rational thing to do) Dobby’s suggestion presented this alternative methodology. So just for the record, as embarrassed as I am to be related to such a willful ignoramus, this sort of advice is actually being acted upon by untold thousands of parents. Should keep the shrink business busy through another generation, if you consider that a silver lining…

  • Am I the only one who finds it odd that the GOP would be pulling out of the Ohio Senate race? — CB

    Either they figure the race is in the bag anyway (via Diebold maneouvres), or else that deWhine has enough money of his own to fend off Brown.

    re Webb in VA: I wish he had as much (charming, actually ) chutzpah as Ford in Tennessee and would go for broke in this fight. But I’ve met the man and, while he’s as honest as the day is long, he also lacks — totally — all that political slickness/sleaziness that covers Allen head to toe. For Webb, just asking for money to run the campaign is a compromise of principles… Sigh… While those characteristics are *precisely* what I want my representative in the Senate to exhibit, they’re not the ones that are likely to win him that seat… That’s why it’s taking thousands of grass-roots volunteers — going behind his back — to inch him up, half percentage point at a time.

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