I hesitate to make too much of the Iraq Study Group report because a) I believe the ISG lacked the political will to address the toughest questions; and b) the Bush White House will almost certainly ignore the report altogether. That said, the ISG’s report has captured the media’s attention, will draw both praise and consideration from members of Congress (in both parties), and will probably soon be synonymous with credible, “serious” thinking about Iraq policy, much the way the 9/11 Commission is equated with a reliable approach to domestic security concerns.
As for the ISG report itself, the panel may have lacked a single liberal voice, and may have been reluctant to offer advice they knew the president would reject out of hand, but the general criticism of administration policy in the report will surely draw the ire of the Bush gang.
Conditions in Iraq are “grave and deteriorating,” with the prospect that a “slide toward chaos” could topple the U.S.-backed government and trigger a regional war unless the United States changes course and seeks a broader diplomatic and political solution involving all of Iraq’s neighbors, according to a bipartisan panel that gave its recommendations to President Bush and Congress today.
In what amounts to the most extensive independent assessment of the nearly four-year-old conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 2,800 Americans and tens of thousands of Iraqis, the Iraq Study Group paints a bleak picture of a nation that Bush has repeatedly vowed to transform into a beacon of freedom and democracy in the Middle East.
Despite a list of 79 recommendations meant to encourage regional diplomacy and lead to a reduction of U.S. forces over the next year, the panel acknowledges that stability in Iraq may be impossible to achieve any time soon.
We are not, White House protestations notwithstanding, winning the war in Iraq.
At a minimum, whether the report goes as far as I’d like or not, it’s fair to say the ISG’s advice, and the widespread reaction to it, will reshape the debate over the war and lead to the first genuine policy discussion over the war since, well, ever.
The study group recommends that the United States withdraw nearly all of its combat units from Iraq by early 2008, sharply reducing the current troop level of more than 140,000 while leaving behind tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel to advise, train and embed with Iraqi forces.
It also recommends that Bush threaten to reduce economic and military support for Iraq’s government if it fails to meet specific benchmarks intended to improve security in the country. It suggests that the Bush administration open talks with Iran and Syria about ways to end the violence in Iraq, proposes holding a regional conference to bring together all of Iraq’s neighbors and urges Bush to aggressively tackle the Israeli-Palestinian dispute to reduce the broader regional tensions fueling the Iraq conflict. […]
The report says the primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq “should evolve to one of supporting the Iraqi army.” While the government in Baghdad “will need U.S. assistance for some time to come,” especially in assuring security, “the United States must not make open-ended commitments to keep large numbers of troops deployed in Iraq.” (emphasis added)
There’s reportedly ample discussion about pressuring Iraqis to play a larger role in shaping their own destiny — Rumsfeld’s “hand off the bicycle seat” metaphor comes to mind — with the apparent realization that the U.S. will have to scale back either way.
“If the Iraqi government does not make substantial progress toward the achievement of milestones on national reconciliation, security and governance, the United States should reduce its political, military or economic support for the Iraqi government,” the report says. […]
“Because none of the operations conducted by U.S. and Iraqi military forces are fundamentally changing the conditions encouraging the sectarian violence, U.S. forces seem to be caught in a mission that has no foreseeable end,” the study group found.
There are a total of 79 key recommendations from the Iraq Study Group — TP ran with six of the most important — though it remains unclear how many, if any, the president will consider. At least for today, Bush continues to appear oddly detached from reality.
The country is “tired of pure political bickering,” [Bush] said.
The president apparently made the remark without a hint of irony.