Greenspan passes the buck on mortgage crisis … to the USSR

Much to my dismay, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan remains a respected figure in financial and political circles. Today, the man once labeled the “Maestro,” offers his take on the ongoing mortgage crisis in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.

On Aug. 9, 2007, and the days immediately following, financial markets in much of the world seized up. Virtually overnight the seemingly insatiable desire for financial risk came to an abrupt halt as the price of risk unexpectedly surged. Interest rates on a wide range of asset classes, especially interbank lending, asset-backed commercial paper and junk bonds, rose sharply relative to riskless U.S. Treasury securities. Over the past five years, risk had become increasingly underpriced as market euphoria, fostered by an unprecedented global growth rate, gained cumulative traction.

The crisis was thus an accident waiting to happen. If it had not been triggered by the mispricing of securitized subprime mortgages, it would have been produced by eruptions in some other market. As I have noted elsewhere, history has not dealt kindly with protracted periods of low risk premiums.

The root of the current crisis, as I see it, lies back in the aftermath of the Cold War, when the economic ruin of the Soviet Bloc was exposed with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Following these world-shaking events, market capitalism quietly, but rapidly, displaced much of the discredited central planning that was so prevalent in the Third World. (emphasis added)

Wait. Hold on. Is Alan Greenspan arguing, in print, that the debacle surrounding subprime loans can be blamed on the collapse of communism?

I can appreciate the fact that Greenspan is uncomfortable being blamed for the current crisis — despite, of course, his role in the current fiasco — but blaming the end of the Cold War is, well, pretty silly.

Paul Krugman has arguably been the most consistent and reliable Greenspan critic in the country over the last several years. He once aptly described the former Fed chairman as a man who “suggests leaving the barn door ajar, and then — after the horse is gone — delivers a lecture on the importance of keeping your animals properly locked up.”

In that context, Krugman was talking about Greenspan supporting Bush’s tax cuts, and then complaining about the deficits caused by the tax cuts, but it’s a description that has a variety of applications.

[I]t also applies to what he’s saying now about the subprime crisis.

All that wisdom about an “accident waiting to happen” — an accident for which he, of course, bears no responsibility.

Remember, this is the guy who brushed off Edward Gramlich when he warned about subprime problems; who “frequently argued there could be no housing bubble.”

The chutzpah is breathtaking.

In 2005, Harry Reid called Greenspan “one of the biggest political hacks we have here in Washington.” It’s a description that looks more and more accurate all the time.

What, you can’t find some Greenspeak in any of the bowls of clear mud he handed out that explains how right he was? You’re messing with American Mythology, man! It’s like saying Reagan raised taxes or sold weapons to our enemies. It’s not true because the beltway bobbleheads say so.

I think we should ask Andrea Mitchell to interview him and see what he has to say about being called a hack.

  • So as the right credit Regan (and only Regan) for the collapse of soviet communism does this mean that the the root of the current crisis is down to Regan?………..(actually they probably still blame Clinton)

    It’s fun playing the “most ridiculous place the blame” game, or at least it would be if it wasn’t so serious.

  • So, if I understand correctly, Greenspan is arguing that the current crisis is the inevitable result of an under-regulated world-wide capitalist system? After communism fell, everybody was getting into the capitalism game, and well, boys will be boys?

    Gosh, if only there had been wise and skilled economists who had been given the job of regulating markets, and influencing political decision-makers, who could have acted to influence this worldwide capitalist free-for-all in a positive, humane way. Too bad.

    Better luck next time.

  • Krugman’s barn and horse analogy couldn’t be more appropriate in this post. In the clip from Greenspan’s op-ed, he says that history isn’t kind to periods of low risk premiums, ostensibly because there is no stick to counteract the plentiful carrots of easy money, then Greenspan goes to shift the blame where it isn’t due and therefore absolve the speculators and conniving business people who created the risky markets that we’re all now tied into. If Greenspan were to take the excellent premise and draw an equally intelligent conclusion, blame would be placed on the appropriate parties and at least market actors would be aware of suffering the penalty of public ridicule for creating things like ARM refinance loans on the elderly and hyper-leveraged home equity loans for people that owned a house for six months during an over-heated housing bubble.

    But no, Greenspan has to engage in Bushist “it sounds noble” rhetoric that is completely wrong and bails out the perpetrators of the problem so the system never gets fixed. Next time, lets get Krugman to be the Fed chair ( or at least Treasury Sec.)

  • I think you guys are missing the point. I’m not a Greenspan apologist, but I have an economics background and a lot of what Greenspan is saying does make sense here if you read the op-ed.

    Essentially, when Communism collapsed in the former Soviet Union, it opened up a labor market that was as skilled, but much cheaper than the labor market of the “developed world”. Essentially, creating a downward pressure on labor costs which created, increased productivity and led to explosive economic growth worldwide. To me, that means that while the collapse of communism was the ‘root’ cause, increased global capitalism was the ‘trunk’.

    Now, Greenspan still has a lot of ‘splainin’ to do for missing the housing bubble, but he does try to answer it in the piece by explaining the lack of long-term interest rate increases that normally follow increases in the fed-funds rate. They didn’t occur this time, the first time out of five similar instances in the past 20 years. Global market forces have trumped central banks’ influence on long-term rates. That said, he should have been more aware of the results of that situation.

    I believe his defense of Bush’s tax cuts were politically motivated however.

  • Well, I’m glad to see those gambling CEOs get the boot. Serves them right, getting only a few hundred million severance packages, after all they did lose their comanies tens of billions. Yeah, that’s justice.
    /snark

  • I’ve always said Greenspan was overrated as a fiscal genius, but part of the blame must go to his rapt audience, who often credited him with visionary powers he simply didn’t have. Tracing the roots of a money meltdown to a paradigm shift in global affairs is a simple dodge, as world-changing events can be said to have…well, changed the world. Predicting what the market will do might have a lot to do with skill and study, but luck plays almost as big a part as if you went into it without the other two.

    Whatever Krugman said was laughed off as the ravings of a liberal-sympathizing alarmist, while every spit-bubble that formed on Greenspan’s chin was greeted as a pearl of infallible wisdom. Red America needs to take a serious look at its icons.

  • Greenspan is right, but not for the reasons he thinks he is. The collapse of communism in the east was followed by an invasion of Freidman Chicago School economic development, which flooded into the void created by the displacement of centrally planned economies. As we now know, unregulated free market capitalism is a failure in practice, as it concentrated all wealth upward, and so few people can only spend so much money keeping an economy afloat. It always becomes top-heavy and falls over, so to speak. Maybe Mr Greenspan should check the prescription on those Coke bottle glasses of his.

  • THIS was what caught MY eye:

    riskless U.S. Treasury securities

    Did he really say that?
    Is Greenspan suffering Reagan’s fate of senility tainting his latter years of service?

    NOTHING is riskless.

    Is it IMPOSSIBLE, the US will fail to pay up 9 trillion in debt?
    Is it IMPOSSIBLE that the inflation rate will outstrip the interest rate on those T-Bills? Perhaps by a horrifying degree?
    Is it IMPOSSIBLE that the rates you get now will be dwarfed by rates they’ll offer next year as foreign governments refuse to loan more to use and the US has to sweeten the offer in order to pay it’s bills?

    I respect Greenspan even now, but more claptrap like THAT, and I’ll put him in a home blowing spit bubbles and eating lime jell-o with fruit in it.

  • “…at least market actors would be aware of suffering the penalty of public ridicule for creating things like ARM refinance loans on the elderly and hyper-leveraged home equity loans for people that owned a house for six months during an over-heated housing bubble.”

    Home equity loans, or more specifically, Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) can be used by the “suffering” public to extricate themselves from harm associated with ARMs and the current Real Estate meltdown.

    More and more folks are using a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) as a cancellation account to accelerate their home equity and payoff their home *years* sooner than listed on their mortgage amortization schedule.

    Unfortunately, today’s Real Estate market means that folks can no longer count on appreciation to build home equity. Those who realize that they need to pay down their current mortgage debt are looking for alternate ways to aggressively (yet safely) build equity.

    And they’ve discovered a perfect online system to do that; they can focus on their wealth accumulation goals while accelerating their equity simply by using a Home Equity Line of Credit to ‘power’ the Money Merge Account™ financial solutions program.

    A typical 30 year loan (of whatever type) can be paid down in 1/3 to 1/2 the time — it’s a great way to save *huge* amounts of income by eliminating a mortgage amortization front-end interest load. (On a million-plus dollar home, I’ve personally seen where the Money Merge Account™ program will save the homeowner $750,000 in interest charges!)

    And the best thing – homeowners don’t have to refinance their existing mortgage or, in most cases, make any adjustments to their lifestyle.

    It is unfortunate that most of us were never taught to follow three essential principles: (1) Avoid paying interest, whenever possible, (2) Use other people’s money, whenever possible and (3) Find and use a financial system that will guide you, especially if you have the tendency to go off-track. The Money Merge Account™ software and the program’s counselors use these principles to keep each homeowner focused on their wealth accumulation goals.

    I’d be happy to provide further details…

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