Having to dig deep to find good news on Iraq

The White House Communications Office distributes a “Morning Update” email to reporters, filled with press clippings that are favorable to the administration. Today’s included an interesting headline on the fourth anniversary of the war in Iraq: “Most Iraqis Believe Life Is Getting Better.”

And where did this Bush-friendly article appear? In something called the Denver Daily News. Now, Denver has two big papers, the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News, and the Denver Daily News is neither. As Dan Froomkin noted, it’s a “small tabloid that gets distributed for free in Denver.” (As Tim Grieve added, the paper is perhaps best known for a 2005 typo in which it referred to New Jersey as “Jew Jersey.”)

In today’s edition, the Denver Daily News ran a headline that read, “Iraqis Happy.” The White House liked it so much, it wanted the entire press corps to know about it.

To back up its White House-friendly article, the paper cited a poll from “Opinion Research Business” (ORB), an obscure British market-research company, which found exactly what the White House wanted to see.

“One in four (26 percent) Iraqi adults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23 percent of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years…. [T]he poll shows that despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26% of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with 49% preferring life under the current political regime of Noori al-Maliki.

Naturally, the right loves the ORB poll, but there’s reason for skepticism.

For one thing, there’s a more reliable poll available.

A new national survey paints a devastating portrait of life in Iraq: widespread violence, torn lives, displaced families, emotional damage, collapsing services, an ever starker sectarian chasm — and a draining away of the underlying optimism that once prevailed.

Violence is the cause, its reach vast. Eighty percent of Iraqis report attacks nearby — car bombs, snipers, kidnappings, armed forces fighting each other or abusing civilians. It’s worst by far in the capital of Baghdad, but by no means confined there.

The personal toll is enormous. More than half of Iraqis, 53 percent, have a close friend or relative who’s been hurt or killed in the current violence. One in six says someone in their own household has been harmed. Eighty-six percent worry about a loved one being hurt; two-thirds worry deeply. Huge numbers limit their daily activities to minimize risk. Seven in 10 report multiple signs of traumatic stress.

This is the third poll in Iraq sponsored by ABC News and media partners — in this case USA Today, the BBC and ARD German TV — and the changes are grim. In November 2005, 63 percent of Iraqis felt very safe in their neighborhoods. Today just 26 percent say the same. One in three doesn’t feel safe at all. In Baghdad, home to a fifth of the country’s population, that skyrockets: Eighty-four percent feel entirely unsafe.

For another, has anyone ever heard of “Opinion Research Business”?

Some results comparisons. The major media poll found that 42% of Iraqis think they are in a civil war, but ORB found only 27% thought so. The major media poll found that 42% of Iraqis feel their life is better now, 36% feel their life was better before the war and 22% say their life is the same. The ORB poll splits were 49%, 26% and 16%. The major media polled found 58% wanted a united Iraq with a central national government, but the ORB polled found 64% wanted that.

  • The hardcore Righties would interpret it as a positive sign if a rocket festooned with Islamic slogans tore through their living room while the family was watching “Third Rock from the Sun”. I thought Bush (and by extension, the White House) didn’t pay attention to polls? Apparently that’s only true when they show that he’s about as popular as Broccoli ice cream. However, he wouldn’t hesitate to cite the Sunday Comics if they supported his view. Sad.

  • I think it’s obvious that the problem Bush pointed out awhile back is still plaguing Iraq. They’re just not grateful enough.

    Me, I’m grateful we’re finally seeing a few more stories about how and why the election board members for Cuyahoga County (Ohio) rigged the 2004 recount.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ohio_voting

  • It certainly seems to coincide with the “the surge appears to be working” ploy that Pace has uttered and various outlets such as even the BBC have repeated. It fits in with the myth that the lib’rul media ain’t tellin’ the truth. The spin will undoubtedly increase and any failures will be blamed on the evildoers, the unmanly, the immigrants, the godless, women, the unpatriotic, and anything else the radical-right can dream up. Judging by the rhetoric of the loons who appeared at the anti-anti war demonstrations this weekend, the far right has got another Vietnam scenario they’ll milk for the next 50 years.

  • It remains to be seen if Americans are sufficiently concerned with what Iraqis think about their lot in life (regardless if it’s true or made-up) to buy into escalating the war. Bush has to walk a fine line here – things are improving, but not so rapidly that the surge is unnecessary. I’m betting the “good news” won’t make a big difference.

  • I think polls of Iraqis are really suspect, because, remember, they lived in a regime where they voted 100% for Hussein every election for years. If I was an Iraqi, I would probably consider giving a dishonest answer to a poll v. an answer’s possible effect on improving my personal safety a no-brainer choice. Who cares about some dumb poll? And how do I know who is giving the poll and what they think the answers to it mean, if they think one answer over another is evidence of something?

  • If they’re “an obscure British-market research company,” CB, then how come their corporate address is:

    *drumroll, if you please*

    600 College Road East
    Princeton, NJ 08540.

    Hmmm—a US research company, linking up with a “Here-ya-go” Denver tabloid, to produce a feel-good poll that meshes perfectly with Bu$hCo’s hashish-laced pipedream on conditions in Iraq. As if anyone would dare to doubt the factuality of such “fair-and-balanced”** research….

    **the Hoerst Wessel begins playing ominously in the background, to the cadence of jackboots on Pennsylvania Avenue….

  • where did you find that steve @#10? my google search turned up a company at 34 bedford road in london. no mention of a nj address……

  • I did a a href=”http://carriecann.blogspot.com/2007/03/opinion-research-business-poll-summary.html”>piece on this yesterday on my blog.

  • If things are getting so much better in Iraq, how come “The Names of the Dead” box in the NYT has been, regularly, longer in the past month than it had been before?

  • I ran an MSN search, bill, and the very first “hit” is their site.

    You click on “locations,” and you get this URL:

    http://www.opinionresearch.com/locations/default.aspx

    The address I gave is identified—by their own site—as their worldwide corporate headquarters. It also comes with the following comment:

    “Our corporate headquarters is adjacent to Princeton Forrestal Village and is easily accessible from major highways from New York or Philadelphia. Public transportation from these two cities to Princeton is readily available on a scheduled basis.”

    Enjoy!

  • Bush’s war in Iraq may be faltering, but his war against the poor and middle class seems to be going well.

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