One can make a very reasonable case that Iowa’s unique role in the presidential nominating process is excessive and unwarranted. Indeed, Paul Waldman recently did just that. The state has too much power and too much influence, and as Kevin Drum noted not too long ago, it’s actually getting worse.
That said, given the media’s coverage of the Iowa caucuses, and the built-in significance of the caucus results, we might as well keep an eye on how the candidates are doing, since — fair or not — how the candidates do in Iowa will have an enormous effect on how the process plays out.
According to most recent polls, Hillary Clinton enjoys a modest-but-steady lead in Iowa, followed by Barack Obama whose support has been growing, with John Edwards third but dropping. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney’s support has put him way out in front, followed by Fred Thompson who support has been leveling off. Rudy Giuliani has been third, but is in decline, with surging Mike Huckabee not too far behind.
This morning, a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll reinforces the recent trends. First up, the Dems.
Clinton leads the poll with 28.9% while Obama garnered 26.6%. John Edwards trails with 20%, a 6-point drop from the last Hawkeye poll in August.
For Edwards, who has basically been living in Iowa (and who parlayed a second place finish there in 2004 into a spot on the Democratic ticket), the results have to be disconcerting. Unlike Obama and Clinton, he has few other strongholds, and a poor showing in Iowa could place his candidacy in serious jeopardy.
On the bright side is that the people who do support Edwards have a history of showing up when it counts. Nearly 76% of Edwards’ poll supporters attended the 2004 caucus, while 58% of Clinton’s and 55% of Obama’s supporters made the trip four years ago. “If we only look at caucus-goers who are almost certain to attend, we find that Edwards makes up the gap with Obama and Clinton, and moves clearly ahead,” said David Redlawsk, the poll’s director and an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
Bill Richardson, who’s been running ads in Iowa for a couple of months, is fourth with 7.2%, down from 9.4%. Joe Biden is fifth 5.3, while “others” (the Hawkeye Poll is open-ended, and respondents are not given a list to choose from) got 3.3%. About 9% are undecided.
As for Republicans:
[T]he Hawkeye poll showed that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has widened his overall lead by 8 percentage points, to 36.2%. But Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, has gained ground despite spending just $1.7 million compared to Romney’s $53.6 million. Huckabee is up from less than 2 % in the same poll in August to 12.8%, putting him in a statistical tie for second place with Rudy Giuliani who garnered 13.1%. Giuliani had spent $30.2 million as of September 30, according to Federal Election Commission reports.
“If Huckabee can motivate religious conservatives to attend the caucuses in large numbers, he may well threaten Romney and close some of the overall gap,” said Redlawsk. About 44% of Iowa Republican caucus-goers consider themselves Evangelical or born again.
Fred Thompson is fourth with 11.4% (up from 7.6% in August), John McCain is fifth with 6% (up from 3.1%), Tom Tancredo is sixth at 2.2% (down from 5.4%), with others garnered 3.5%. About 15% are undecided.
Among Dems, expect the field to pull all the stops, working under the impression that a Clinton victory in Iowa would effectively end the process (before 49 other states even get a shot). Among Republicans, the race for second is on — my money’s on Huckabee, though he may not have the resources to capitalize on it.
Stay tuned.