Guest post by Ed Stephan
Last Thursday we here at TCR began some discussion of possible (probable?) future pandemics. In one comment I mentioned that the U.S. long-term mortality rates are represented by a gradually declining straight line, reflecting slight improvements in mortality throughout the 20th century. I couldn’t add the graph to that comment, but I can here.
The really dramatic mortality decreases occurred during previous centuries, with the introduction of scientific agriculture, exemplified in the published work of Jethro Tull in the 1730s. There he recommended such practices as row-planting, soil pulverization with improved plows, selective breeding, barns for the wintering of livestock, turnips and clover as winter fodder, soil enrichment (nitrogen, calcium, phosphates, manure). Widely adopted by aristocrat/farmers who “enclosed” their estates (meaning they tossed the peasants off), these practices led to a dramatic increase in the protein diets of ordinary people and, with that, to a dramatic decrease in infant mortality.
In the next century a number of public health programs (sewage management, city zoning, public water supply systems) led to still further, if less dramatic, declines. In the 20th century, beginning with the introduction of sulfa drugs in the 1930s, medicine made modest gains in still further reducing mortality.
The US began gathering national data on births and deaths in 1909 (the system of data gathering was complete by 1933). This is the mortality graph I mentioned last Thursday. Breaking from my usual practice of downloading the data and creating my own (I plead having been much busier than usual of late), I’m borrowing this ready-made from Annual Summary of Vital Statistics: Trends in the Health of Americans During the 20th Century, where you can find all sorts of graphs of births and birth rates, maternal and infant morality rates, and a a host of other exciting Demographic matters.
As you can see, military deaths from WWI and WWII are not even noticeable. The up-spike in the solid line is the 1918 worldwide Spanish flu pandemic. Unlike the flus we’re used to, this one struck all ages, particularly healthy men and women in their 30s. Something our leaders ought to think about as they ponder possible future problems. An additional difficulty, today, is the ease with which a very small number of researchers can now create the agents which cause diseases.