Sen. Fritz Hollings (D-S.C.), who holds the record for the longest service in the Senate as a “junior senator,” announced yesterday that he will not seek an eighth term next year. As Daschle said yesterday, Hollings has been a “giant” of the chamber for decades and will certainly be missed in the Senate.
At the risk of being insensitive, Hollings’ career plans are not as important as what his decision will mean for Democrats in 2004. His decision not to seek re-election unfortunately hurts Dems’ already-slim chances of winning back the Senate. When one looks at the map, it’s hard to imagine how Dems can pick up the necessary seats.
South Carolina has become a Republican stronghold over the last several cycles. Hollings has been able to win re-election for decades because everyone in the state knows, likes, and respects him, but even he would have faced an uphill battle against the GOP next year if he had decided to give it another go.
The likely Dem nominee will be Inez Tenenbaum, South Carolina’s Superintendent of Public Schools. Though she has not yet committed to the race, and said she’d announce one way or the other by Labor Day, party officials everywhere can only hope she decides to run. In South Carolina, only one Democrat won a statewide election in 2002 — and it was Tenenbaum, who won easily with 59% of the vote.
On the other side of the aisle, meanwhile, several Republicans have expressed an interest in running, many of which were planning to take on Hollings. Among the likely candidates are Rep. Jim DeMint, former state attorney general Charlie Condon, Beach Mayor Mark McBride, and Charleston businessman Thomas Ravenel.
Even if Dems nominate Tenenbaum, this will be a difficult and costly race for the Dems in a state that Bush will likely carry by a large margin.
Looking at this race as part of the bigger picture, Dems realize that the Senate may now be out of reach. The party only needs a net gain of two seats, but that will be quite a challenge.
Among the states where Dems are likely to pick up seats are Illinois, where incumbent Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R) will not be seeking re-election, and Alaska, where former Gov. Tony Knowles (D) will be taking on vulnerable incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R).
That’s the good news. Here’s the bad news:
In Georgia, Sen. Zell Miller (D) will retire in 2004 and Dems, who have not yet recruited any big-name replacements, will have trouble keeping the seat in party hands. In North Carolina and Florida, incumbent Senators John Edwards and Bob Graham are up for re-election but both are running for president. If neither of them runs for their Senate seats again, Republicans view these seats as possible, if not likely, pick ups. Perhaps worst of all, Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle will get all he can handle against former Rep. John Thune (R), who lost by a hair in his Senate bid last year.
There are a few other races that could be interesting — Specter in Pennsylvania, Bond in Missouri, Schumer in New York — but so far, the opposition party in those states haven’t done much to field strong challengers.
Ultimately, the math is discouraging. To realistically take back the Senate in the same year as the presidential race, the stars would have to align perfectly and the Dems would need a presidential candidate at the top of the ticket with appeal broad enough — particularly in the South — to help congressional candidates down the ballot.