House GOP plans vote on privatization, Dems can’t believe how lucky they are

I’m trying to think of the reasoning behind these efforts, but I’m having a little trouble.

House Republican leaders promised yesterday to hold a vote as early as this summer on adding personal accounts to Social Security, but said they might do it without any effort to stave off the system’s insolvency.

The leaders also said they will act on legislation creating personal investment accounts without concern for when the Senate would act. Until now, GOP House leaders have been reluctant to take the lead on Social Security because of a concern about a possible backlash in the midterm races next year — especially if the bill dies in the Senate.

Their reluctance was well-founded. Republicans, at this point, are already in a tough spot when looking ahead to the 2006 cycle. The idea is you don’t want to put the caucus on record supporting something the public hates — say, privatizing Social Security — especially if the Senate isn’t going to pass anything anyway. All it does is give Dems campaign ammunition against vulnerable GOP incumbents.

In other words, if you’re the DCCC, your ideal scenario is to see House Republicans bring a privatization bill to the floor. If the legislation passes, Dems win because they’ll use that vote relentlessly in the midterms. If just enough Republicans break ranks to defeat the bill, it’s another huge setback for the Bush White House. Either way, Social Security is on the front burner and Dems are happy.

Maybe the GOP will come up with a decent bill? Not so much.

[GOP] leaders acknowledged that the measure they are considering would make the deficit worse, and do nothing to deal with the president’s rationale for bringing up the issue in the first place: projections that the system will run out of money for scheduled benefits when the baby boomers retire.

Once again, a whole lot of Republicans will be looking across the aisle asking, “Why are all those Democrats smiling?”

Are there enough vulnerable GOP incumbants to allow the Dems to retake the House if this legislation does indeed pass the House? IIRC, gerrymanding rendered the best case scenario (probably best case that is) that the Dems take back less than 10 seats, and thus not control. Here’s hoping the dynamic has changed enough that I’m wrong…I’d prefer to take back control of the Senate in 2006, but somehow don’t see that happening in a likely scenario. Tell me I’m wrong. Please…

  • Frankly, Edo, taking back the House is a real longshot. Between retirements and gerrymadering, there probably just won’t be enough competitive seats. Nevertheless, Dems in the House can close the gap, send a message, and position themselves very well for ’08 and beyond.

    As for the Senate, we’d obviously need to go +5 for the cycle, and even that would just bring us back to 50-50. Is it doable? Yes, but we’d need a lot of variables to fall just right.

    Ultimately, it’s too early to really know anything about the midterms with any confidence; a lot can and will happen over the next year. The important thing to remember is that we’re laying the groundwork for success — and when it comes to Social Security, Republicans are helping.

  • Leave it to the GOP to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Courts, House, Senate, and White House and they can’t get anything done.

    Word… when the fascists come for me they will come disguised as anti-fascists said the old man … but how will you know them the young boy asked … they will be cloaked in religion and righteousness even though their hearts are filled with intolerance and ignorance …

  • As for the Senate, we’d obviously need to go +5 for the cycle, and even that would just bring us back to 50-50. Is it doable? Yes, but we’d need a lot of variables to fall just right.

    Understood. My fingers are crossed…

  • Anyone got a breakdown of Senate contests we should be looking at? You can always contribute to senate races even if you live somewhere else.

    Also, while +5 is a long shot, it took a lot of audacity and temerity for Republicans to get control in the first place. But they’ve stumbled into the same trap the Democrats did–poor approval ratings, nothing getting accomplished, no excuses since they’re the majority, and best of all, ethics violations left and right.

    With the Ethics committee getting going around ’06 election time, along with idiotic moves like this vote, don’t be surprised if the house of cards comes down. Start talking to your moderate friends now. . .

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