Almost 10 years ago, President Clinton signed into a law a popular ban on the purchase and ownership of assault weapons such as Uzis, AK-47s and 18 other types of semiautomatic weapons. Predictably, conservative Republicans and the National Rifle Association fought the effort tooth and nail, but public support, White House lobbying, and votes from Democratic lawmakers were enough to carry it through.
Next year, however, the ban is set to expire unless Congress reauthorizes the legislation and President Bush signs it into law.
I suspect you see where I’m going with this.
Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas) announced yesterday that the House will not vote to extend the ban, allowing the law to disappear in 2004. Bush had indicated that he would sign the bill if Congress passed it, drawing intense criticism from his buddies in the NRA, but the White House said it had no intention of pushing Congress to act on the legislation, preferring to see it die a quiet death.
As the Washington Post explained today, “Congressional Republicans said Congress will renew the ban only if Bush publicly and firmly insists. ‘If the president demands we pass it, that would change the dynamics considerably,’ a House GOP leadership aide said. ‘The White House does not want us’ to vote.”
The political dynamics of this are bizarre. Democrats, concerned that the gun issue hurts their chances in rural communities and with southern voters, want to simply avoid gun control altogether. As such, they are quietly ignoring the fact that the GOP is going to let the assault weapons ban die, even though they strongly support it.
Republicans, meanwhile, see the gun issue in conflicting ways, as well. Their conservative base takes the issue very seriously, but these voters are already inclined to back the GOP. The voters Republicans want to reach out to — folks like soccer moms and residents of big cities — overwhelmingly support the assault weapons ban and worry about the GOP’s close ties to the NRA.
With this in mind, the most conservative elements of the congressional GOP, who occupy the leadership posts in Congress, aren’t even going to bring the bill up for a vote because they’re afraid too many Republican lawmakers could be swayed to vote for a popular gun control measure like this one so close to an election.
In other words, Democrats are worried about being unpopular for backing a bill with broad national support and Republicans are worried about being unpopular for opposing the same bill.
With this in mind, it looks like everyone just wants the bill to go away. It’s a shame; the assault weapons ban is, or was, a good policy.