How low can he go?

July 15, 2005

Earlier in the week, we saw an NBC/WSJ poll that showed Bush’s support dropping, particularly the percentage of Americans who believe Bush is “honest and straightforward” falling to 41%.

The poll was taken, however, shortly before Karl Rove’s “difficulties” burst onto the front page. The new AP-Ipsos poll was conducted entirely this week, and it has Bush’s overall approval rating dropping to 42%, down slightly from a poll taken last month.

Unfortunately, there were no questions regarding the Plame Game scandal, so we don’t know exactly how the news is affecting public opinion, but some observers suspected that the attack in London last week may give Bush a boost as attention shifted back towards a terrorist threat, which for inexplicable reasons is considered a Bush strength. Regardless, that didn’t happen and Bush’s support remains weak.

How weak? The president’s 42% support is, the AP noted, “as low as they have ever been since the AP-Ipsos poll was started in December 2003.”

Not exactly the kind of numbers a White House is looking for to survive a scandal and push a conservative Supreme Court nominee through the Senate.

I think it’s time to remember the LA Times story only a few days ago that trumpeted Bush’s rising popularity after the London bombing before there was even a poll. Read and marvel at the hacks your press corps has become.

  • I’d make the floor for these polls about 30%. After all, about 27% of Illinoisians voted for Keyes over Barak Obama, so we can say that a little less than a third of Americans will go Republican even if the GOP signs over our country to the Chinese.

    Anyway, by the 30% criteria, Bush’s popularity has gone critical with life signs fading fast.

  • beans–I was thinking that just yesterday, as I drove past a non-American SUV that had the Bush/Cheney O4 sticker on it, but with Bush’s name surgically removed.

  • Not exactly the kind of numbers a White House is looking for to survive a scandal and push a conservative Supreme Court nominee through the Senate.

    Okay, I’ll admit it, I must be mentally challenged. Why do low approval numbers for Bush affect his ability to push a conservative Supreme Court nominee? I would think the approval numbers for GOP Senators up for reelection, especially in blue or marginally blue states, would be way way way more important. If there aren’t enough vulnerable GOP senators, then low approval numbers for Bush won’t matter.

    I must be missing something. Can someone please help me out? Either with the overarching argument/logic or with specifics regarding the 2006 Senate elections, or (ideally) both. Thanks in advance! I do hate feeling mentally challenged.

  • First of all, they don’t read polls, so this doesn’t matter. Second of all, at all his public events he’s got 100% guaranteed approval.

  • For one thing, the lower the Shrub’s polls go the more Republicans in Congress will feel free to distance themselves from him. As their own elections come closer, they’ll need to be able to point to some sunlight between their butts and The Dick.

  • Edo,

    Ed’s on the right track here, although I think you raised a good point that Bush’s approval ratings don’t mean as much as CB was assuming they did.

    So it’s the Senate, stupid. And the less strong Bush’s position is, the less they fear his wrath and/or his popular support.

  • Ed,

    “As their own elections come closer, they’ll need to be able to point to some sunlight between their butts and The Dick.”

    But only if they represent a blue or marginally blue or marginally red area right? I can’t see W’s approval rating mattering one whit to the senators from Oklahoma for instance. If anything they’ll do their usual “down-is-up” routine and say that his approval ratings are so low becuase he’s so gosh darn liberal.

    Also, thanks for the thoughtful responses.

  • Mr. Flibble – Your comment about the Chinese might actually turn people away from the Republicans. If the Bush economic agenda means we owe a ton of money to the atheist, communist Chinese government, might the religious right one day object to their tax dollars financing a god-less governement, especially one that supports government sanctioned birth control? Could be a zinger to white-bread Midwesterners.

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