How we might get stuck with Huck

February 9, 2008

Guest Post by Morbo

I’d like to follow-up to the Carpetbagger’s Thursday post about what John McCain will do with Mike Huckabee. I think the situation is complicated by the fact that McCain faces a conflict between what he probably wants to do and what he might have to do.

Consider this: James Dobson, founder of the powerful Religious Right group Focus on the Family, announced this week that he will not support McCain. Dobson vowed to sit out the election rather than touch a screen for the Arizona senator.

Some liberals make the mistake of viewing Dobson as a kind a buffoonish fundamentalist simpleton whose main goal in life is to persuade people to beat their kids more often. I don’t buy it. Yes, Dobson does want you to beat your kids, but I believe he’s also a shrewd political operator. I think I know what he’s up to here, and it all boils down to this: Vice President Huckabee.

There is no way Dobson is going to stay home on Election Day, especially if Hillary Clinton is on the ballot. So he huffs and he puffs now and lets McCain know that he doesn’t like him. Dobson is counting on McCain panicking and attempting to mollify the Religious Right by asking Huckabee to be his running mate.

McCain will turn 72 in August. Although his health is said to be good, he has had a bout with skin cancer. That’s no big deal because a lot of people who lives in places like Arizona get that. But I can see Dobson and his gang hoping for the worst and then celebrating when Huckabee ascends to the highest office in the land. (Yes, they really are that craven.)

There is no denying that McCain has a problem when it comes to the Religious Right. In 2000, he gave a speech during which he called people like Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson “agents of intolerance.” It was not a smart move, and McCain’s candidacy imploded shortly thereafter.

As he geared up for the ’08 run, McCain sought to mend fences. He traveled to Lynchburg and sough Falwell’s forgiveness. Falwell stated publicly that he bore no grudges. The late Moral Majority founder loved that he had enough power to make a powerful senator grovel before him and kiss his ring.

But Dobson neither sought nor granted an apology. The man has a long memory. He claims to follow Jesus, but that doesn’t mean he’s about forgiveness.

Focus on the Family is a huge operation, and it has been reported that millions listen to Dobson’s radio broadcasts. In a close race, McCain can’t afford to have Dobson lobbing bombs at him and peeling off any votes. Some accommodation must be made.

My guess is that once Huckabee is on the ticket, Dobson will issue a statement reversing himself and saying it’s OK to vote for McCain. For good measure, he’ll probably make a few other demands as well — such as the right to screen Supreme Court nominees. (For what it’s worth, this blogger at the American Prospect agrees with me.)

A spate of books is coming out claiming that the Religious Right is a spent force. I don’t believe that. I’ve heard it too many times before. The latest gambit by Dobson may be audacious, but it’s also the action of a man who knows he has power and is not afraid to use it.

The only question now is whether Mr. “Straight Talk” will buckle under to such pressure.

Buckle yes. Huckabee no. The tax hawks would go nuts. But if McCain chooses a supply side pragmatist (read in favor of politically expedient earmarks and charity for Republican causes), Dobson might be born again yet again.

  • “The only question now is whether Mr. “Straight Talk” will buckle under to such pressure”
    That’s a question??? Of course McCain will cave! He’ll do it in a flash if he thinks it’ll help him win.

  • I am not sure how after being shunned much like McCain, Huck is the chosen one. Aren’t there better “conservative” choices for the social conservatives that didn’t run for POTUS?

  • I don’t like it. McCain/Huckabee scares the living shit out of me…mostly because i don’t buy the argument that droves will come out to vote against Clinton. On the other hand, they will come out in droves to put a guy who doesn’t believe in evolution one breath away from ascending to the throne of the shining city on the hill.

    It would make more sense for McCain to nominate an economic fundamentalist. But those folks who find that important will, when the time comes, vote for him anyhow because in minds like those any Republican is better than any Democrat. It is the fundamentalist who are more likely to stay home if they don’t get their candidate, and the GOP absolutely needs those voters to win.

    Huckabee is obviously angling for the VP slot, there’s no other reason for him to stay in it, cause he ain’t gonna win it.

    Those of you in the rarefied air of the coasts, ensconced amongst liberals may not know the fear. But me…my truck only receives two kinds of radio stations: country and religious/right wing talk (and if i’m lucky the oldies station)…i’m stationed deep in the intellectual and cultural wilderness of ‘Merica. Among people who might actually eat a squirrel (not as good as rabbit, but tasty none the less), Huck will have draw.

  • Stephen, if “Straight Talk” doesn’t pick a running mate that satisfies the conservative base, then he has no chance of winning the general. It will be much like Hils picking a lefty like Edwards if she gets the nomination.

  • I definitely think that McCain will cave in and select a fundee-approved running mate. I don’t know if it will be Huckabee, though, since the rest of the establishment despises him. A friend of mine who lives in Atlanta told me recently that the political crowd down there has heard whispers of Gov. Sonny “Pray For Rain” Perdue on McCain’s shortlist. A candidate like Perdue (or Sanford, Riley, or Barbour,) would bring in the evangelical constituency without alienating the Wall Street wing of the GOP, which disdains Huckabee’s economic populism.

    As a side note, McCain’s skin cancer did not come from living in Arizona. He was overexposed to sunlight during his service in Vietnam, which led to his recurring bouts of melanoma. Of course, if we were as craven as the Rethugs, we would ignore that fact and swiftboat the hell out of him for being vain and sitting in the sun. Hey, it’s what they would do to us if our candidate had skin cancer! But, we’re too good for that. The question is, how do we play dirty against a war hero? We have to make him appear unpalatable to the public while not distorting the truth. So what’s the meme to go with? McCain the Flip-Flopper? McCain the Old Guy? McCain the Guy With Anger Management Problems? And can we go after him hard enough to make it stick? I worry that he’s got some serious teflon . . .

  • Clicking on the blogger from the Prospect gives one a blank page. Is this a humorous way to say that no one yet agrees with you:)

  • I think Huck’s a great choice. He doesn’t know anything about economic or foreign policy… he doesn’t “believe” in evolution… and aims to erase the line between government and state…

    He perfectly represents the Republican Party, and they deserve him.

  • McCain is feeling the heat from religious conservatives but the worst critics on the right are the wingnut right media like Coulter and Limbaugh. McCain will need to find someone they like more than someone Dobson likes, hoping that Dobson’s followers would still tow the line for someone who is “conservative” but maybe not a fire-breathing preacher.

    The ferocity of right wing attacks on McCain is startling and while as CB posted yesterday some of the pundits are making nice the die seems to be cast with the rank and file. The term “maverick” seems to cut both ways and there’s a reason the Bushies worshiped loyalty over maverickness: the right wing wants to know absolutely what it’s buying and doesn’t tolerate anyone straying from the reservation.

  • The only question now is whether Mr. “Straight Talk” will buckle under to such pressure.

    No. The only question is “when” does this happen.

    I have to say, the thought of Huckabee a heartbeat away from the Presidency in the administtation of the oldest guy to run for the office, is the one thing that should make all the “political fundies” (and I will accout myself one as surely as Zeitgeist, Jen, and Those Who Know Who They Are must) on our side think very hard about exactly what we believe. We aren’t going to have the freedom to be romping around like Limpdick & Company. As a Movie Legend I knew once told me “if you don’t keep your eye on the ball, kid, the rest doesn’t matter.”

  • ***Aren’t there better “conservative” choices for the social conservatives that didn’t run for POTUS?***

    J, if you think about what Huckabee has openly stated on the campaign trail—that he’ll bring the Constitution in line with “biblical” teachings (read: OT, smite-the-Philistines, my-definition-of-god-uber-alles dogma), then Huck represents pure ecstasy for the lemming-esque legions of Dobsonia.

  • Huckabee is sufficiently religious and affable that, IMHO, if he were McCain’s running mate he might well be able to neutralize the anger of the religious right at McCain without raising the hackles of independents and religious moderates.

    So what’s the meme to go with? McCain the Flip-Flopper? McCain the Old Guy? McCain the Guy With Anger Management Problems?

    My ad, to be run exclusively on Faux News: “McCain: finally old enough to have lost his cool on both sides of most important issues”, followed by a picture of The Hug, and the caption, “Do you REALLY trust this guy to veto gay marriage?” 🙂

  • Please, please let him pick Huck. I don’t know about you, but under that unctious exterior, I see an obviously an angry storm trooper. Combine that with McCain’s well-known explosive temper and I think all the Democrats would have to do is light the fuse: publish Huck’s sermons, keep hitting his idea to rewrite the Constitution to conform to God’s law and ask him about all the records he destroyed when he left the Arkansas governor’s mansion. That ought to make his head explode — and if we’re lucky, on national TV. Do the same with McCain, calling him on his numerous flip-flops, his 180 on immigration and oh, yeah, St. John, what was that Keating Five thing about anyway? And could you please tell us, if you are so down on Bush, why were you hugging him so hard in this picture and with such an expression of bliss? Is he your BFF? You do know what that means, don’t you?

  • What is all this talk about McCain being a war hero? How much of a hero do you have to be to be shot down and captured? That’s bad luck, nothing to do with heroism. According to the Republican rules, every single inmate at Gitmo is a hero. Not to Americans, but heroes none the less – to someone back home.

    Didn’t he get asked ‘nicely’ to take early retirement? In the military you only get asked to retire early, so you don’t embarrass the establishment. McCain would never have amounted to much in the military – would never have made it to the position his father and grandfather attained. Hence the request to retire from the force. He has no more experience leading the nation than he had ‘leading’ soldiers in the military.

    What was he showing them during the short stint as ‘commander’? How to be shot down over enemy territory? How to make sure you get captured? How do draw attention to yourself?

    Sure he got tortured and endured humiliation and severe pain. There is no doubt about that. Most people who grow up enduring what McCain went trough, end up with psychological problems…. That’s what we have: a Republican candidate who is mentally unstable. His habit of dropping F-bombs on fellow Republican legislators comes from somewhere, and it is not from being an upstanding citizen.

  • I do not know about that. I do not think that Huckabee has a chance to make it, and I do not think McCain would choose him to be his vice-president. Dobson might have some impact on the primaries, but McCain won’t worry about Huckabee because all McCain has to do is get 20% of the vote and he’ll win. By the way, I have to correct you about Dobson. Dobson does not support McCain because he has voted rather liberally more than once as a senator and it is against Dobson’s better judgement to endorse him. It has nothing to do with forgiving. On the other hand, Huckabee has been more conservative so I think that is probably why Dobson feels like he should endorse him. I would not be worried about my health if I were McCain. I would be much more worried about people trying to get me.

  • Dobson is counting on McCain panicking and attempting to mollify the Religious Right

    EVERY liberal blogger should pick this point up and pound it home so that when it happens it is framed as exactly what it is, the “Maverick” bowing to the religious right as he already did when he went on bended knee before the alter of Falwell.

  • btw, I stilll surmise that he will name Pawlenty and that will win it all for him.

    The theocratic freak show will come out and vote for anyone to keep Satan – as the cult has been conditioned to see it – from winning. Pawlenty will turn the trick McCain will need.

  • No, I don’t think so. McCain may be accepted, reluctantly, by the grand pooh-bahs of the Rep party, and if they do accept him, he won’t spit in their eye by nominating Huckabee. Huckabee will be just fine. I subscribe to the school that, noting that he does not have a job (a preacher without a congregation), believes his presidential campaign will leave him perfectly positioned as a leader of the religious right. Which, of course, is why the other leaders of the religious right are either fighting him viciously or (now that Romney and Thompson and their other hopefuls are out of it) pushing him for vice president. Anything, as long as he doesn’t come out of this campaign as the new leader of THEIR dogpatch.

  • Dr. Dobson may have waited too long for his endorsement to finally come out. It also shows his fear of alienating the evangelical base by not endorsing Romney, the most conservative choice. Huckabee is a flash in the pan, but conforms to Dobson’s religious litmus test. It’s too bad that the religious leaders in this country fear their constituents more than their own conscience.

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