Bob Graham was staring at some cold, hard facts and came to a logical conclusion. He lacked enough money to remain competitive, was barely registering in the polls, and was facing pressure in Florida about whether he would eventually seek re-election to the Senate. Graham did what he had to do. He dropped out.
His departure has led to wide speculation about who might be the next candidate to accept the label of “former presidential candidate.” While anything’s possible, I have a hunch that we won’t see any candidates withdraw from the race for several months, probably not until next spring.
Why? Because these guys don’t have anything else to do.
Four of the nine remaining candidates — Clark, Dean, Sharpton, and Braun — have no day job whatsoever. They can be full-time presidential candidates without their schedule conflicting with any professional responsibilities. Why would any of them drop out? Even if one of these four were to run completely out of campaign money and lose their entire campaign apparatus, they could still have the chance to appear in the debates, generate media attention, and have a platform to discuss their political ideas and agenda. They have no incentive to leave, no matter how bad things get. Withdrawing would simply mean going home and watching the race on TV.
The remaining five are active members of Congress, but even they have no reason to go rushing back to Capitol Hill. Kerry was re-elected last year. Even if his presidential campaign doesn’t succeed, he can head back to the Senate without any negative consequences. Lieberman is in the exact same boat.
Edwards was in Graham’s shoes, but he boldly announced that — no matter what — he will not seek re-election to his Senate seat in North Carolina. While this was, of course, a dramatic gamble, it also means he has nothing left to lose by staying in the race. If Edwards drops out, he’ll finish his term in the Senate and be out of elected office altogether. Instead, he can stay in the race, enjoy being a presidential candidate, and maybe win a primary or two.
Gephardt is still a member of the House, but the presidential race is his final gamble. If he wins, he’s president. If he loses, he’s out of government. Like Edwards, his congressional career is all but over and he’s placed all of his eggs in the presidential campaign basket. Withdrawing would simply mean the end of his career.
Kucinich, meanwhile, will probably drop out in the spring so he can head back to his district to run for re-election to the House, but considering his district, he won’t have to worry about campaigning at home for at least another six months.
With all of this in mind, I think we’re stuck with a nine-candidate field until around February, at the earliest. Unlike Bob Graham, none of these candidates has a reason to go away.