So, is this finally the election cycle in which socially-conservative voters move away from the culture war and start voting on their economic self-interest? It depends a bit on whom you ask.
The Washington Post, in an interesting front-page piece today, says the notion of basing votes on far-right “values” is in decline, especially in places like Ohio.
Two years ago, Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell was a driving force in the triumphant campaign for a state constitutional amendment to outlaw same-sex marriage. That helped cause a surge in turnout of “values voters,” who helped deliver this pivotal state to President Bush’s successful reelection effort.
As the Republican candidate for governor, Blackwell has been counting on values voters to do for him this year what they did for the party in 2004. But the culture wars are being eclipsed as a voting issue by economic worries and Republican scandals that have altered the political dynamic here in striking ways. Several polls find Blackwell trailing his Democratic opponent, five-term Rep. Ted Strickland, by double digits with less than four weeks to go until the Nov. 7 midterm elections.
The difficulty Blackwell is experiencing winning support for his socially conservative message reflects the anxiety evident this year among voters in Ohio and elsewhere, some pollsters say.
“It is harder to run on wedge issues when voters have huge concerns on their minds regarding war in Iraq, economic issues and a Congress they perceive as doing little,” said Michael Bocian, a vice president at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic polling firm in Washington.
Great, right? This is exactly what Dems have been hoping for years. Indeed, a recent survey by the University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll, which found that 63% of likely Ohio voters are basing their choice of candidates on the “issues” rather than “character.” (I’d argue that Dems have always held the high ground on “character,” too, but I think I know what the poll meant.)
On the other hand, however, there’s Missouri.
The LA Times’ Ron Brownstein spent some time in Missouri recently, following the Talent/McCaskill Senate race, and found that the wedge issues matter as much as ever.
[I]n her 2004 gubernatorial race, McCaskill won only eight of the state’s 109 rural and exurban counties, noted Kenneth Warren, a St. Louis University political scientist. To win this year, he said, McCaskill’s main challenge “is to get more of the rural vote.”
Both the opportunities and barriers in that effort were on display as McCaskill and Talent crossed campaign paths recently in rural southeastern counties, a region known as the Bootheel.
McCaskill’s biggest obstacle, by far, is her liberal views on social issues: She supports abortion rights and opposed state amendments banning gay marriage and allowing residents to carry concealed weapons. Talent’s campaign has run ads in rural markets highlighting these positions.
“It’s a question of who believes in these heartland values and who doesn’t, and that is a set of issues in the race,” Talent said.
At the end of September, when McCaskill appeared at the 62nd annual Cotton Carnival Parade in Sikeston, several along the route said they did not need to know her opinions beyond abortion and gay rights to conclude they could not vote for her.
Brownstein spoke to Jim Holt, a foreman at a trailer manufacturing company, who said, “I mostly vote Republican because of the Christian values side of it.” Holt said economic issues — what he called “the money side of it” — took a backseat to his other concerns. “I worry more about abortion and gay marriage and all that crazy stuff.”
Similarly, Joe Hester, an accountant, said he would vote for Talent because the incumbent “supports family values and I think McCaskill is too liberal for our state…. I’m a strong Christian, and I believe if you take care of the values, God will take care of the rest.”
So, which is it? Will socially-conservative voters allow the “wedge” to work once again or not? I’m inclined to believe the Ohio article, not just because I hope it’s true, but also because I suspect a whole lot of these folks have come to realize that voting Republican not only hurts them on wages, health care, and education, but also because the GOP won’t actually deliver a Christian-right agenda anyway.
Fool Christian conservatives once, shame on the GOP. Fool the same Christian conservatives for a couple of decades….