The Bush campaign is starting to run out of friends.
Looking over the 2000 results, the most obvious division in America wasn’t between men and women, blocks and whites, or churchgoers vs. the less religious. If you wanted to know where Gore and Bush enjoyed the most support, you simply had to look at cities vs. rural communities.
And if the LA Times is right, the Bush administration’s policies may even be driving the “rural vote” away from the president.
[C]racks have surfaced in President Bush’s once-solid rural constituency. From places like Sherman County [Oregon] to Montcalm County, Mich., and Mahoning County, Ohio, some Republicans are so concerned about crop prices and high unemployment that they’re considering voting Democratic for the first time.
They’re hardworking people like Sherman County farmer Tom Martin. As he plows the stubble of last autumn’s wheat harvest on his 12,000-acre spread, the 60-year-old hears mostly grim economic news on his radio.
“I’m right there on the fence,” Martin said. “Bush has lost my vote, but I’m just not excited about [John F.] Kerry either. From where I sit, neither party has much regard for the little man. And that includes farmers.”
For Bush, winning the rural vote looms more important than ever — especially in such swing states as Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio.
In 2000, rural voters overwhelmingly backed him over Democrat Al Gore, giving Bush the boost he needed to win in some states.
Although analysts predict the president this year will again capture the majority of votes in outlying communities, they say he must win by a decisive margin to remain in the White House.
And while I have an unusual fondness for these anecdotal articles that show Bush’s former supporters turning on him, this article actually includes a little data to bolster its premise.
A recent Los Angeles Times poll showed that among rural voters, Bush leads Democrat John F. Kerry, 47% to 41%. But the president’s support has slipped — down from 55% in November — for reasons ranging from the troubled economy to growing dissatisfaction over the war in Iraq.
Sure, a six-point deficit may not sound great, but it’s tremendous considering the lead Bush has traditionally enjoyed with rural voters. Kerry doesn’t need to win over this constituency completely; he just needs to stay competitive. If the vote is even close, Kerry will win the election.
Of course, this won’t be easy. The Times article talked with people in some of the poorest counties in America. Residents here identify with Bush on social issues and are unnaturally forgiving on economic ones.
In Blaine County, Neb., the nation’s second-poorest in per capita income, Republican chairwoman April Wescott said rural Americans didn’t believe in pointing fingers at politicians.
“We’re used to making do with what we have. We’re less spoiled than most Americans,” she said. “When hard times come, you just get through them. You don’t blame the president or your neighbors. That’s just the way it is.”
That’s a quote from a GOP activist, but I suspect that captures the sentiment of a lot of people in that community. The trick is explaining to them that the president and his administration are going out of their way to help some people though these “hard times”; it’s just not them because they’re not wealthy fats or corporations enjoying lavish tax breaks.
Slowly but surely, some are apparently getting it.
Not long ago, Lloyd Walker committed a near-unforgivable conservative faux pas.
The mayor of tiny Greenville, Mich., was miffed that a major refrigerator maker had announced plans to pull up stakes for Mexico, taking with it 2,700 local jobs.
The veteran politician blamed not only the Electrolux factory owners, but U.S. policies that allowed big business to abandon rural towns without the slightest economic penalty.
Speaking at a nationally televised news conference last fall after the Electrolux announcement, Walker lost his cool.
“I said I had never in my life voted for anyone but a Republican for president,” he said in a recent interview. “But then I looked right into the bright lights and admitted it: That may change this year.”
The town’s Republican congressman called from Washington to question Walker’s loyalty to the party. Colleagues clamored for Walker to resign from the Montcalm County Republican Committee.
Walker has stood his ground. “I’m wringing my hands over this election,” he said. “Bush assures us things are getting better. But I don’t see it.”
A few more Lloyd Walkers and things are going to get very interesting out there.