The pre-criminations, at least among Republicans, began in earnest a couple of weeks ago, and we’ve already seen some doozies. As the NYT recently noted, “Tax-cutters are calling evangelicals bullies. Christian conservatives say Republicans in Congress have let them down. Hawks say President Bush is bungling the war in Iraq. And many conservatives blame Representative Mark Foley’s sexual messages to teenage pages.”
But to appreciate just how bizarre the finger pointing will go, especially if today is a debacle for the GOP, consider the lamentations of the Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes.
Whatever happens in [today’s] election, he’ll be in the White House for two more years to protect them from Democratic excesses. But what if Republicans had followed the president’s lead last year and tried to overhaul Social Security and enact personal investment accounts? If they’d succeeded, voters would now be perusing the stock tables to decide how to invest their payroll taxes. Had Democrats blocked reform, Republicans would be pointing out the gains voters were missing in the bull market. Either way, Republicans would be ahead. So would the country.
Instead, they balked at Bush’s modest reform proposal. House Speaker Dennis Hastert thought it too risky, though the president had trumpeted his idea, with impunity, in two national campaigns. Another Republican leader told Bush that House Republicans would line up behind him — but only after he’d drummed up a strong national majority in favor of entitlement reform. In truth, it already existed. Private accounts financed out of payroll taxes, while controversial, have long been popular. Left alone in the drive to fix Social Security, the president, disappointed and exhausted, finally gave up the fight.
That’s right, Fred Barnes, one of the nation’s most prominent conservative pundits, not only believes Social Security privatization was popular, but believes Republicans would be riding high right now if only Congress had followed the White House’s lead on the issue. He did not appear to be kidding.
I often wonder if leading conservatives live in the same country as the rest of us. When it comes Barnes, I’m not even sure if we’re on the same planet.
I realize that 2005 seems like a long time ago, but did Barnes and the Weekly Standard forget that the public hated the Bush privatization plan? That lawmakers ran in fear because of the strong public outcry? That polls showed the idea growing increasingly unpopular the more Americans heard about it?
Indeed, in Dems’ wildest dreams the Republican establishment would have followed Barnes’ idea and stuck to the privatization scheme.
But wait, Barnes also believes the GOP could have won with “tax reform.”
Tax reform could have had a similar effect. It may be hard to achieve, but it’s both important and favored by the vast majority of Americans. Here again, however, Republicans were anything but bold. A tax panel commissioned by Bush concentrated on easing the burden imposed by the Alternative Minimum Tax at the expense of fundamental tax reform. Not surprisingly, the panel’s timid recommendations produced little enthusiasm. And the tax issue quickly faded away.
The White House didn’t have to acquiesce. It could have pressured the tax commission to come up with a sweeping reform plan. Or it could have proposed its own blueprint for reform. There’s no secret about what’s needed: lower rates, fewer deductions, a broader tax base, simplification of the tax code, elimination of double taxation of dividends, and a lot more. Instead, the White House let the moment pass.
The Bush gang “let the moment pass” for a very good reason. “Tax reform” was, believe it or not, even less popular that Social Security privatization. Indeed, in October 2005, Bush’s tax advisory commission recommended two plans, both of which limited or eliminated almost all existing tax deductions, including those for state and local income and property taxes. For that matter, both plans were transparent giveaways to the wealthy, at the expense of everyone else.
And yet, Barnes believes Republicans would now see smooth sailing in the midterms if only they’d embraced such an obviously-popular policy.
If only Fred Barnes drove the GOP strategy, Dems would never lose another election again.