If only this were September 2004, not September 2005

September 22, 2005

SurveyUSA has another one of those fun-filled 50-state polls, this time returning to the subject of the president’s approval rating, state-by-state.

The top five:

Utah — 63% approve, 36% disapprove
Idaho — 57% approve, 40% disapprove
Nebraska — 55% approve, 42% disapprove
Mississippi — 55% approve, 43% disapprove
Wyoming — 55% approve, 44% disapprove

The bottom five:

Vermont — 29% approve, 69% disapprove
Rhode Island — 30% approve, 69% disapprove
New York — 32% approve, 66% disapprove
Massachusetts — 33% approve, 66% disapprove
Maine — 33% approve, 64% disapprove

Is it me, or is there a certain geographic similarity with many of the least “red” states?

In any event, there’s plenty to chew on here, but my preferred way of looking at this is comparing the results of the poll against the presidential election last year.

In November, Bush won 31 states on route to getting 286 electoral votes. About a year later, the president has an approval rating above 50% in just 10 states (Alabama, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, Wyoming).

Using these numbers as a guide, if the election were held today, and Bush lost the states in which voters disapprove of his job performance, his support would only generate 85 electoral votes — 185 fewer than he’d need.

In fact, in several “battleground” states, it isn’t even close. Bush’s support has completely fallen apart in states like Ohio (61% disapprove), Florida (58% disapprove), Virginia (58% disapprove), and Colorado (56% disapprove).

Even in Texas, Bush’s support has fallen to 52-45. Let me say that again — 45% of Texans express disapproval for Bush.

No wonder Republicans are starting to wonder if the president is a political liability.

Looking at those numbers, if I was Lincoln Chafee I would not be so anxious to tie myself to the prez.

  • But the real apples to apples comparison would
    be between a state by state poll just prior to
    the election in 2004, and the current one.
    As we all know, since the Democrats don’t
    have a platform of their own, disapproval
    of Bush or the Republican Congress does
    NOT translate into Democratic victory.

    Bush’s poll numbers were way down last
    year before the election.

    The Democrats need to stand for something,
    and they just plain don’t. Or rather, they seem
    to agree with Bush policies, more or less.

  • Aren’t you comparing apples and oranges???

    You say that Bush would only get 85 votes if he only won the states where his approval rating is over 50%.

    How many states did he carry in 2004 where his approval rating was under 50%? How many did he lose in states where his approval rating was over 50%?

    I was listening to Rush a few days ago and he listed all sorts of Presidents who had worse poll numbers that Bush. Of course, Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush had those low poll numbers because of recessions. Clinton had low poll numbers because of healthcare or whatever it was.

    Bush has the same war and the same tax cuts and the same economy that the Republicans seem to think are good things. Shouldn’t Bush’s numbers be higher because the economy is so great and Iraq is turning into a democracy and we have great family values?

  • Using these numbers as a guide, if the election were held today, and Bush lost the states in which voters disapprove of his job performance, his support would only generate 85 electoral votes — 185 fewer than he’d need.

    There’s a slight flaw there. There are still plenty of people who are unhappy with Bush but would still vote for him simply because they’d rather have him than X, be it Kerry or anybody.

    I think those numbers stand well enough on their own, but it does no good to harken back and wish that things could have gone differently. We need more discussion about how to strengthen ourselves (the whole anti-Bush establishment) into becoming a more credible opposition. That isn’t to say the criticisms of Bush and exposing his MANY failures and weaknesses isn’t constructive. It’s just that nothing seems to be coming of it. The Democrats don’t appear to be cohesive, there’s still too much in-fighting between various factions such as the labor left and the “new left”. Nor do the Dems appear to be doing a very good job of constantly reminding the public that their policies reflect what the public wants, not Bush’s, that they aren’t corrupt, or that they are more effective at governing.

  • There’s a slight flaw there. There are still plenty of people who are unhappy with Bush but would still vote for him simply because they’d rather have him than X, be it Kerry or anybody.

    That’s a perfectly good point. I used these approval ratings as a rough guide to voter behavior in part because Matt Dowd, Bush’s own pollster, accurately said last year, “Normally, presidents finish roughly the same as their job approval numbers.” So, if Bush is above 50% in a given state, chances are people there would vote for him. If he’s below, his chances are much worse.

    A perfect guide? Definitely not. Just a point to consider while reviewing the numbers.

  • Neil – I’m sure that you’re an objective listener, but anything that comes out of Rush’s mouth should be suspect. If I was you I would verify those poll numbers for the former presidents from an independent source.

  • I’m curious if Bush’s numbers will (or can) ever rise more than a few points. I’m sure it’s possible, but I think it’s unlikely because he’s deeply mired in several messes of his own making. For example, there simply is no easy way out of Iraq.

    Of course, as mentioned by others, the Democrats can’t find their butts with both hands, so even if Bush became the most despised man in America, they’ll find a way to lose.

    My theory is that the next critical political battle will be between radical (Bush) Republicans and Republicans that don’t howl at the moon. I don’t think Americans, including many Democrats, look to the Democratic Party for answers any longer.

  • People, people remember a few points. First, Bush is never running for anything again. Second, current Rovian theory is that high poll numbers as you leave office simply is a sign that you left money on the table. The whole game plan can be summed up as:

    1. Win your elections, but by as close a margin as possible. Anything over 50.01% simply means you appealed to more voters than you needed to to get in. Wasted effort, not to mention a sign you gave someone promises that you didn’t need to. A narrow win gives you flexibility, since you haven’t put yourself into political debt to anyone you didn’t need to.

    2. Once you are in and can’t run again (Bush’s position) burn through your political capital. It doesn’t do you any good anyway when you’re out, so use it during your second term to steal everything that isn’t nailed down for your moneyed backers.

    Bush hasn’t bothered to name a successor. I think it’s “apres moi, le deluge.” They’re stealing everythng they can (see the continuing tax cuts, plus the corrupt handling of the Katrina cleanup) so they can leave it to a hapless dem to clean it up in 2008.

    So it’s nice if Bush’s numbers are going down, but you shouldn’t imagine that Bush will start being chastened. He and his thugs are on a mission to steal everything they can, and that’s what they’ll be doing all the way up to the minute they’re forced out.

  • Democrats need to connect Bush with the Republican Party, and the Republican Party needs to distance itself from Bush. For a Democrat to watch with satisfaction as the Republicans try to do this, and to dream about what might have been is crazy.

    The deficits, the transfers of income to corporate profits and to the very wealthy, the war in Iraq, are REPUBLICAN policies. Say it with me, say it often. REPUBLICANS are lazy, incompetent, callous, neglectful, plutocratic, anti-American bastards. Say it now, say it often.

  • I’m GOP and I most decisively am NOT a “lazy, incompetent, callous, neglectful, plutocratic, anti-American bastard”. I’m a senile American geriatric who happens to vote (Libertarian more often than not). Calling me names, even out of frustration, just doesn’t strike me as a persuasive platform for change.

  • So it’s nice if Bush’s numbers are going down, but you shouldn’t imagine that Bush will start being chastened. He and his thugs are on a mission to steal everything they can, and that’s what they’ll be doing all the way up to the minute they’re forced out.

    Watch for a slew of last minute on-the-way-out-the-door executive orders to benefit environmental rapists and corporate pillagers too, so that the damage won’t stop as Bush’s sorry ass rides into the sunset.

    How I loathe these bastards!

  • About Mississippi. I’m here in Jackson and here’s the way I see it. Transplanted and stuck here for the last 25 years. Born in Omaha and spent all of my youth (to 18) in the midwest.

    Mississippi DOES NOT SUPPORT BUSH. A few rich white folks that have gamed the system here make it appear that he has more support than he really does. They even support a black guy on AM radio who talks bad about black people !!! (Kim Wade Wjnt 1180 am if you’re interested) Pathetic.

    Think about it. This state has one of the highest percentages of Blacks in the nation. Trying to find a black guy that supports Bush around here is probably harder than finding Jenna without a Budweiser in her hand. And the white people here mostly are split like the rest of the country, but you’ll never make me believe that Bush has THAT high of support amongst the whites here. Certainly not enough support to overcome the Black HATRED of the Prez.

    Now I happen to be white and pretty middle class, so I’m not saying this stuff out of some deep seated racial animosity toward the Repugs. The polls are BEING GAMED SOMEHOW to make Bush appear more popular here than he really is. If they can steal an election (or two ) you can’t make me believe they can jigger a few poll numbers.

    Anyway, I apologize on behalf of the MAJORITY of MISSISSIPIANS who think Bush is just as irresponsible and criminal as the rest of the country.

    Enjoy.

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