Following up on an item from yesterday, there’s been a flurry of national polls released over the last couple of days, and most offer relatively similar results about the state of the presidential campaign. AP has Obama leading McCain by six (47-41); CNN has Obama up by five (48-43); CBS has Obama up by six (45-39); and Time has Obama up by five (46-41). Whether one considers a 5 to 6 point lead impressive or not is open, apparently, to some debate, but given the sustainability of these numbers, in a time of withering attacks, I’m fairly encouraged.
But taking a closer look at the internals, some key angles jump out. Take this from the results of the Time poll, for example:
With three months to go before election day, Obama’s advantage is largest on atmospheric issues: he is seen as far more likeable and a greater force for change than McCain. Asked which candidate is most likeable, Obama beats McCain 65% to 20%; as for which is the real candidate for change, he leads 61% to 17%. Obama also beats McCain 48% to 35% on who understands voters’ concerns best, another key indicator of appeal.
Now, ideally, presidential campaigns would be all about issues, policy proposals, and substance. But since we know that’s a fantasy, these “atmospheric issues” are more than a little important.
We’ve heard endless talk over the few elections about which candidate voters would rather have a beer with, a factor that allegedly helped propel George W. Bush to the White House. But if this is an indicator, and Americans prefer a president they actually like, then Obama’s in a reasonably good position — his “likeable” number is more than triple McCain’s. Given McCain’s celebrity status — SNL, The Daily Show, guest stars in movies/television, and jocular personality — the gap shouldn’t be this enormous.
And then there’s that persistent enthusiasm gap.
McCain is lagging in enthusiasm. Forty-nine percent of Obama voters describe themselves as “very enthusiastic,” compared to just 21% of McCain backers, and a full 27% of the Republican nominee’s supporters say they are either “not very” or “not at all” enthusiastic about him, compared with 10% for Obama.
This puts McCain in a very awkward bind. He could generate more enthusiasm among Republicans, but he’d have to give up some of the other support that keeps the race close.
Publius has some sharp analysis on this.
That’s because the gap is precisely what is preventing McCain from going Democrat-lite. If he moves hard to the middle to win over Douthat’s “Obama or undecided” voters, then the enthusiasm gap gets worse as disillusioned conservatives watch him distance himself from them. However, if he tries to shore up that base, then it prevents him from winning over the “Obama or undecided” voters.
Bottom line — McCain’s in a tough bind this year. I know the burning question is why Obama’s lead isn’t bigger. Maybe the better question is why the Great Maverick is consistently losing to a freshman Senator.
True. In fact, I’d add one related point. For all the recent talk about why Obama is struggling to crack the 50% threshold in recent polls, perhaps the more salient question is why McCain is barely able to crack the 40% threshold.
On a related note, the new CBS poll noted that 20% of respondents said Obama is “very likely” to be an effective Commander in Chief, down 4 points from a month ago. McCain’s number on the same question is 38%, down eight points from July.
As Steve M. noted, “We’re supposed to read that as a sign that Obama’s trip failed, and maybe it is a sign of that, but what’s far more interesting to me is that McCain’s C-in-C numbers are dropping faster than Obama’s. Why? Why are they dropping at all? Well, both polls were conducted starting July 31, just after the Britney ad hit, and ending August 4 (Time) or August 5 (CBS). I think the problem is the McCain campaign’s clownishness. I think he looked serious to 8% more people before this clown period than he does now.”