The estimable Jerome Armstrong, who authored MyDD.com and now does some guest posting for Daily Kos, suggests that a brokered Dem convention is still possible. Armstrong’s great, but I think he’s off-base here.
Armstrong explains that he doesn’t believe Clark and/or Edwards will be withdrawing from the race, and that Dean has recommitted himself to staying in no matter how many times he loses. With these points in mind, Armstrong notes:
No one is getting out, Kerry is getting less than 50% of the delegates… even if Kerry continues his plurality wins, if no one gets out (and why should they, given the internet funding) we’ll have a brokered convention. If one of the other candidate starts to catch hold (ala Reagan in 1976), we could have a contested brokered primary.
I considered this a distinct possibility myself not too long ago, but that was before people started actually voting.
In a race with four or more serious, competitive candidates, it can be very difficult to get to the convention with a majority of delegates. But for Armstrong’s point to be valid, the dynamics of the campaign right now have to remain accurate for the foreseeable future — and I don’t think that’s going to happen.
First is the notion that “no one is getting out.” I’m a little skeptical about this. Dean has insisted that he’ll go on with or without money or primary victories, but that’s Dean. Clark and Edwards, on the other hand, are both running very low on money and are poised to lose today in two key Southern primaries. Both have suggested they’ll stick it out through next week, but even if both wait until after Wisconsin to make a final decision, I’d be shocked to see both of them push their campaigns through Super Tuesday (March 2) with empty campaign coffers and weak poll support.
Second is the idea that Kerry is continuing with “plurality wins.” Oddly enough, in a crowded field like this one, one might assume that it’s incredibly difficult to reach that 50% plateau. Despite the challenge, however, Kerry has actually pulled it off a few times and come awfully close a few more.
In fact, far from just “plurality wins,” Kerry’s enjoyed “majority wins” in North Dakota, Missouri, Delaware, and Michigan. He also came very close in Washington (49%), Arizona (43%), and Maine (45%).
If this continues, and even one candidate withdraws in the next week or two, Kerry’s chances of winning primaries with 51% support or better increases dramatically and the likelihood of a brokered convention become even more remote.