If you were really curious…

November 7, 2006

After 2004, getting excited about exit-poll results seems incredibly foolish, but I know there’s considerable interest, so here’s some of the not-so-secret data.

When asked which issues were more important in voting, 62% said national issues, 33% said local.

In a surprise, asked which specific issues were the most important, corruption was the most common response with 42%, followed by terrorism at 40%, the economy at 39%, and the war in Iraq at 37%.

On a related note, 57% said they disapprove of the war, 41% said they approve.

As for Senate candidates:

Democrats leading:

Virginia (52-47)
Rhode Island (53-46)
Pennsylvania (57-42)
Ohio (57-43)
New Jersey (52-45)
Montana (53-46)
Missouri (50-48)
Maryland (53-46)

Republicans leading:

Tennessee (51-48)
Arizona (50-46)

This, of course, should have “caveat emptor” written all over it. Based on exit polls, Kerry won in a landslide. But I pass the numbers on to you, dear readers, because I know you’re probably curious.

I’m such a sucker. I really am excited by these numbers. Fool me once. . .

  • Wow…Missouri and Arizona are both right on the edge.

    I sure hope these numbers accurately forecast the actual results. If so, woohoooooooooooooooo

  • Leading in 8 out of 10. That will quickly reverse itself since, as Olbermann points out, “it’s not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes.”

    I’m getting quote happy. To paraphrase (Norman) Einstein, “the Republicans are not only more crooked than we imagine, they are more crooked than we can imagine”

    I anxiously await being proven wrong.

    PS Is it just me or are the mathematical equations getting more difficult?

  • I have good news and bad news from an unconventianl polling place.

    The good news is Dems are favored to pick up six 6

    The bad news is there is a chance we’ll lose RI

  • is it really possible that i was the only democrat who simply ignored the early exit polling data in 2004? from what i have been reading on various blogs all day, the answer may be yes.

    early exit polling data is unreliable, we should all know it’s unreliable, and therefore we shouldn’t take it seriously in terms of voting outcome.

    where it’s probably reasonably reliable is in things like issues….

  • CB – just put an asterisk next to the exit poll results that says, “These numbers are subject to change and Diebolding.”

  • Howard – it’s actually interesting that exit polling, until 2004, was thought to be fairly accurate if you took a statistically sufficient sample, which most legitimate pollsters did. That was one of the (many) reasons why 2004 was such an anomaly and was indirect evidence of voter fraud because the margin of difference between the exit polls and the actual numbers was greater than had ever been seen before.

  • I don’t see Diebold proof numbers. I’m saddened that so many Americans are so unrelentingly stupid.

  • Homer, to clarify: i agree that exit polling, like all polling, is as good as the sample (assuming that you approach framing the questions in a professional way).

    still, there appears to be a long-standing slight democratic skew in the numbers, and even if there weren’t, it’s still only exit polling, of greater value for its insights into why people voted the way they did than for its preditive values.

    we get real numbers soon enough, so it’s long been my practice to ignore exit polls, so what i did in 2004 was just following through on my norm, which apparently is less common than i would have thought!

  • Howard – I wonder if the Dem skew (I agree, btw) isn’t because a lot of white male yuppies (is that word used anymore?) vote after work in the evenings and they, at least historically, tend to vote slightly/somewhat more Republican.

    Either way, while I was never the type to look for Christmas presents before Christmas morning, I have an inability to avoid looking for updates/exit poll info. I guess it just increases the tension and makes me think of this as all being a game.

    It is all a game, right?

  • No, white male “yuppies” take the day off and golf after voting. Only blue colar workin’ man Dems wait until 5-7 PM to vote.

    Disclaimer: I actually like golf. I play it and drive one.

  • McCaskill is now behind, but neither KC nor StL have been counted.

    It’s close enough that, once they come in, it could switch fast.

    Oh, and I suck at math. I had to use a calculator for the challenge question. 🙂

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