In defense of deadlines and timetables

Last week, the [tag]president[/tag] sounded rather [tag]impatient[/tag] with the lack of political progress in [tag]Iraq[/tag]. Bush said that he wanted “the Iraqi people to hear” that “pretty soon it’s time to shut her down and get governing.” He did not, however, set any conditions, establish any deadlines, or explain whether there would be any consequences for additional delay. As I noted last week, Bush sounded a bit like the unarmed policeman who sees a criminal and shouts, “Stop! Or I’ll say ‘Stop’ again!”

Today, in a terrific New York Times op-ed, [tag]John Kerry[/tag] makes the case that [tag]Bush[/tag] would not, or could not, offer.

So far, Iraqi leaders have responded only to deadlines — a deadline to transfer authority to a provisional government, and a deadline to hold three elections. Now we must set another deadline to extricate our troops and get Iraq up on its own two feet.

Iraqi politicians should be told that they have until May 15 to put together an effective unity government or we will immediately withdraw our military. If Iraqis aren’t willing to build a unity government in the five months since the election, they’re probably not willing to build one at all. The civil war will only get worse, and we will have no choice anyway but to leave.

If Iraq’s leaders succeed in putting together a government, then we must agree on another deadline: a schedule for withdrawing American combat forces by year’s end. Doing so will empower the new Iraqi leadership, put Iraqis in the position of running their own country and undermine support for the insurgency, which is fueled in large measure by the majority of Iraqis who want us to leave their country. Only troops essential to finishing the job of training Iraqi forces should remain.

I think this is absolutely right, and I’m delighted to see Kerry offer the plan. This strikes me as a blueprint for what the Dem plan for Iraq should be. It’s similar to the Murtha plan — except it calls for redeployment after a unity government is formed.

I’ve never been altogether clear on why timelines are so awful anyway. As Kerry noted, they keep working in Iraq, so Bush’s ideological opposition to deadlines has never made a lot of sense.

In fact, this op-ed is further proof that [tag]Kerry[/tag] “gets it.”

We will defeat [tag]Al Qaeda[/tag] faster when we stop serving as its best [tag]recruitment[/tag] tool. Iraqis ultimately will not tolerate foreign jihadists on their soil, and the United States will be able to maintain an over-the-horizon troop presence with rapid response capacity. An exit from Iraq will also strengthen our hand in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat and allow us to repair the damage of repeated deployments, which flag officers believe has strained military readiness and morale.

For three years now, the [tag]administration[/tag] has told us that terrible things will happen if we get tough with the Iraqis. In fact, terrible things are happening now because we haven’t gotten tough enough. With two deadlines, we can change all that. We can put the American leadership on the side of our soldiers and push the Iraqi leadership to do what only it can do: build a [tag]democracy[/tag].

Now, if only Bush could see the obvious benefits of this approach, we’d really see some progress.

The deadline that underlies all of Bush’s thinking is November 06.

  • Rachel Maddow was discussing Condi Rice’s briefing after her return from her recent tour of wherever she was. She was asked about the American bases in Iraq and whether or not they are going to be perminant. Apparently she refused to answer, stating she could not predict the future. IMO the reason W will not set a deadline for withdrawl is that he has no plans to leave. That is the point that needs to be pressed going into November 06. Republikans have no plans to leave Iraq no matter how bad it gets.

  • Sure got that right, kali.

    I was so happy to read this op-ed. It is clear, direct, and well-thought-out. I see Gary Hart has a HuffPo piece up in support as well, and he’s got a pile of credibility on this issue.

    It would be a wonderful thing if the democrats could loudly and unanimously get behind Kerry’s proposal. Um. Well, a girl can dream, can’t she???

  • This is a lot more encouraging than the Democrats’ “Real Security” recommendations on Iraq. It makes sense and is good policy. Therefore, it and Kerry will be completely trashed by the White House, the media, and Joe Lieberman before noon.

    I recognize the need to salvage something from this debacle, but most Iraqis want us to leave. What’s to keep them from telling the U.S. to stick it?

  • MNProgressive,

    I watched Kerry question a very squirmy Condi on that very subject in a SFRC hearing back on February 15. Just looked up the exchange:

    KERRY: So I would ask you today: Is it, in fact, the policy of this administration not to have permanent basing in Iraq?
    RICE: I think General Pace has spoken to that, Senator, and he speaks for the administration.
    Senator, our job now is to use our forces to help the Iraqis gain control of their own security environment, to train their forces to protect our people who need to go out in the field to be a presence outside of Baghdad.
    That is the purpose of our forces.
    As the president said, we don’t want to be there one day longer than we need to be.
    KERRY: I understand that, and we all want that transition. I’m just trying to figure out what the long term is, because I don’t think the administration has actually said that before with clarity.
    So if you’re affirming today what the generals have said as the policy, that’s a step forward.
    RICE: Well, Senator, I think General Pace has spoken to this.
    I don’t want to, in this forum, try and prejudge everything that might happen all the way into the future. The policy of this administration is to, as quickly as possible, turn over responsibility for security to the Iraqis and, as the president said, we will be very pleased the day when American forces can come home.
    KERRY: So the conclusion for what you’ve just said is that the civilian leadership, which is how we lead the military in the United States, has a different position from the uniformed leadership — which is you’re reserving the right to make that decision in the future?
    RICE: Senator, I said I’m not going to try to speak to something that is that far into the future.
    KERRY: I heard what you said. I understand.
    RICE: We are…
    KERRY: No, I understand.
    RICE: Yes. Sorry.
    KERRY: I got your answer.

  • Steve Gilliard, who I respect, had a take that I didn’t expect to see–more or less that victory is still possible and that Kerry is proposing a cut and run plan that would only weaken our position in the middle east.

    I posted a comment to the effect that negotiation with the Iraqi factions depends on the ability to offer a carrot or a stick. And we can do neither. Without the ability to threaten or induce, we are in no position to influence the course of events. And, moreover, our own country could well disintegrate under crushing debt, incompetent federal government, neglected infrastructure, and all that. It’s time to let the middle east sort itself out. We need to look to our own house before it falls apart.

  • CB –

    Good post – really demonstrates how the Republicans are able to carry the message, in this case “timetables are bad.” As you said, and Kerry said in his eloquent but long-winded manner, WHY? Especially since they’re WORKING. That should be the Dems rhetorical question to the Bushies everytime the issue comes up.

  • Re Condi: The woman can go on forever yet communicate absolutely NOTHING. She’s a master at it.

  • I’m glad someone brought up the subject of the permanent bases in Iraq. To me, this is the biggest bold faced lie that has been coming out of this administration’s mouth. The mantra is a constant “we are not building permanent bases in Iraq,” while the money keeps pouring in for just that sort of thing.

    “Backing among the American public for President Bush’s action in Iraq has fallen. Despite the opposition a Kuwait-based construction company has already been handed £175million ($300 million) of the building deal.” (see link above for link to article).

    “Plans for four huge military bases placed strategically around Baghdad are also being drawn up.

    The superbases will be in central Iraq, close to the capital, and also to the north, west and east of Baghdad.”

    Why do you think the Preznut indicated that no withdrawal of troops will happen on HIS watch, and deferred to the next president in office for any resolution? Because it’s NOT going to happen. They are in it for the long haul, and the American public, be damned. They thought it would be a cake walk, just invade the silly little country, prop up your basic puppet regime, privatize the oil industry there, and, voila, you have Bush & Co. in charge of a large percentage of the oil distribution out of the Middle East. As long as they keep telling themselves that things are running smoothly in Iraq, progress is being made, there is no civil war, yadda yadda, they can continue to stay in charge. And, as long as the American public keeps electing these yahoos, we will continue to be sitting ducks as targets because of our elected leaders’ conduct.

    Just my two cents to add to the discussion. Hopefully, we’ll end up with a quarter by the time this thread is done!

  • The permanent bases are a huge deal and I’ve heard reports that they are where a large chunk of reconstruction funding has gone. But this is where debate on whether these bases should have been built and if they should persist needs to take place.

    Bin Laden stated that the reason 9/11 occurred was because the “infidel” U.S. was stationing armed forces in Saudi Arabia where the holiest muslim shrine exists in Mecca. We’ve since pulled our troops out of there. Now we’re repositioning troops in Iraq where muslim holy sites #2 and #3 are. So there’s the motivation for 9/11 the sequel to take place.

    This is the kind of decision-making that happens when the only people allowed in the room are yes men.

  • I think Kerry is a day late and a dollar short on this one. The time to get on board was when Murtha proposed it last Dec-Jan. The situation in Baghdad has deteriorated now, and I think rendered his plan inoperable.

    Riverbend over at Baghdad Burning reports that the Iraqi governement is warning the citizens not to cooperate with Iraqi government troops unless coalition forces are with them. What happens when the coalition pulls out? The same thing that happened in Bosnia, which is what has already started in Baghdad.

    We’re responsible for this ethnic cleansing. We can’t just pull out and leave the country in the control of forces committed to ethnic cleansing. I frankly don’t know what we should do, but stepping aside to let genocide happen doesn’t seem to me to be the right thing.

  • tsk, tsk, Carpetbagger. It really should be common knowledge that we cannot remove our troops from Iraq, because we need those massive air bases which we are building up for the upcoming Iran invasion. That massive helicopter ‘assault’ on empty desert a few weeks ago? That’s called a training exercise for hitting a, ummmm, more interesting target. Iraq was never meant to be a stopping point, but rather a rally point.

  • “We can’t just pull out and leave the country in the control of forces committed to ethnic cleansing.”

    Ethnic cleansing sucks, but I’m only interventionist if (1) I think we can do some good, and (2) it doesn’t cause catastrophe at home. We fail both on both counts, so it’s time to get out before our own bacon gets fried.

  • I don’t want to come out and say Kerry’s going to be a good candidate for President in 2008, but he’s got something going for him that I think deserves our attention, particularly since it deals with the things that made me want to go screaming from the room during the 2004 campaign.

    As noted by CB here, Kerry does “get it.” That op-ed is as good a statement of what the Democratic Party position on Iraq should be as any I have seen and better than the vast majority of other would-be statements. Myself, I’d personally like to see the empire overthrown and the Imperial Field Marshals sent to the Hague for their crimes against humanity, and our military remade from its present Wehrmacht image, but that’s probably not going to happen. But what Kerry proposes certainly gets to the heart of every moron mistake the current Chowderhead Marching Society like “Secretary of State” Rice, who is 20 steps over her head and the perfect poster child for the right wing argument against affirmative action. It’s a proposal this radical could live with and support.

    I had a huge argument with Kerry’s dealings with the netroots, the way his e-mail list wasn’t put to use effectively, connections to veterans wasn’t used effectively, etc. But they have been connecting with the e-mail list the past few months, putting forth positions and such and he has promoted the candidacies of Iraq veterans running for congress.

    This is the sort of intraparty work that leads to creating a candidacy that has the support of the “establishment” and the “roots.” I recall Nixon’s work from 1966-68, that a lot of people didn’t pay attention to at the time because he was “no longer a candidate” – and that led directly to his successful candidacy in 1968.

    There’s something to consider – particularly in light of knowing what kind of campaign will be run again by the thugs in 2008 – in having someone who learned the hard way how to deal with them. I doubt he’d let the Slow Boat Assholes have a 6 week free run again.

    Does Kerry set my heart all pitter-patter? No, but none of the others do either – supporting Feingold as anything more than a “goal post mover” is going to be as good as supporting McGovern was in 1972 (like it or not, and I supported McGovern in 1972), and Kerry is a helluva lot better than the Hillary.

    Pretty soon we’re going to have to unite around someone to avoid going over the cliff with Hillary. I’m willing to risk going over a cliff if the possibility of success has in it what I want. Like Eugene Debs said, it’s better to vote for what you want and not get it, than to vote for what you don’t want, and get it. And Hillary is “what you don’t want.” Whether Kerry is “what you want” is still not clear, but writing him off because of 2004 is also pretty stupid.

  • I’m only interventionist if …

    The problem is that we already intervened. We set their house on fire, we blew up their fire house, we cut off their water supply. Now we just want to tell the Iraqis if they don’t get their firefighting capabilities up to snuff, we’re out of there.

    Your point about “doing some good” is a valid one, though. This is one of the must fucked up situations I’ve ever seen. My point is, why wasn’t Kerry calling for us to get out when getting out was clearly the wise thing to do? Things have deteriorated to the point that it is not clear at all. There may be no wise thing to do.

    Welcome to Bush’s world.

  • I am a bit reluctant to jump in here, since I cannot think of wholly (marginally?) acceptable solution to situation that is Iraq at present. It appears to be pretty hosed up to me, and I believe we have the hopelessly naive post-invasion “planning” of the Bush bunch to thank for it. But, it also seems that Iraqi’s must come to grips with and articulate for themselves and the world what they want their future to be.

    I’m not sure I concur with Kerry’s plan to extricate us from the morass (although I did find his rebuttal of the “we must be prepared to lose more of our soldiers and marines so that the deaths of those already have been lost will not have been in vain” meme. I think it is instructive to remember the absolute waste of American youth in Vietnam due to political cowardice). I’m not sure how long ago it was, but Russ Feingold came out with a proposal for negotiating milestones with the Iraqi’s toward the goal of ending (or significantly reducing) the U.S. military presence in Iraq. This seemed like a reasonable approach to me, as it seemed to be predicated upon negotiating a mutually acceptable plan of withdrawal with the Iraqi’s rather than simply saying, in effect, “Get your act together by X date, or we’ll leave you to destroy yourselves.”

    Still, I am glad that Kerry has put his ideas out there, and I agree that an intensified diplomatic effort to encourage the formation of a “unity” governement” is called for. Further, we need discussion and debate in the face of the open-ended, meaningless (if catchy) talking point that we will “stand down” as Iraqi’s “stand up.” That, my friends, is the quintessential non-answer answer. The public needs to be reminded how much time has passed, how many lives have been lost, how much treasure has been wasted since Bush took up this insulting mantra.

    We did “set the house on fire”, and we “blew up” much of the firehouse and water supply. Since doing that, we have stood by ineffectually while some Iraqi’s have participated in finishing the job or stood in way of restoration of the water supply and rebuilding the firehouse. I think it is high time that we acknowledged that – whatever progress may have been made (or not) to date – the current course is not producing results that are acceptable to anyone who has Iraq’s best interests at heart. Somehow, we need to develop some sort of (hate this metaphor but I cannot come up with a better one) road map that spells out the end-state in Iraq under which the U.S. will withdraw, and the parameters by which that end-state will be determined. But Bush and his merry band of incompetents give us only slogans. Kerry, at least, doesn’t seek to placate us by insulting our intelligence with meaningless catch phrases and the assertion that we need only rely on his manly “steadfastness” for things to improve. The American people have been Bush’s steadfastness, but I hope we will send a message that we are unwillling to follow him over (yet another) cliff.

  • Not only is Senator Kerry right on Iraq, he’s right on the right. His Op-Ed was not only correct and well-thought out, but it was also a brilliant move against the right. However Republicans counter, it will put them in a bad light. They either have to agree with Senator Kerry or they have to go on the attack. If they go on the attack, it will be interpreted as a pro-war stance. They are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

    Public opinion has already turned against Iraq and Republicans are between a rock and a hard place. John Kerry just made that rock more stationary and the hard place a lot less comfortable. They can try to stick it out and say nothing, but I’d be willing to bet the attack dogs have already been set loose.

    This will backfire. The majority of Americans want out of Iraq. John Kerry has a sensible plan with firm deadlines outlined. The smartest thing a Republican legislator up for re-election this year could do in regard to Iraq is to say, “I agree with Senator Kerry. It is time that we have firm deadlines.” Not that I believe this will happen. Not in a million years, which is one of the reasons why we will see a Democratic victory in November.

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