In the money, Q2 — Part II

July 4, 2007

I had an item earlier this week on Democratic presidential candidates’ fundraising in the second quarter, so it seems only fair to note the Republicans’ fundraising efforts as well. For the GOP, the results are less than encouraging.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, who led the Republican field in money raised in the first three months of the year, said donations to his primary campaign had dropped by a third in the second quarter, to $14 million from $20.5 million. Mr. Romney lent his campaign another $6.5 million out of his personal fortune to soften the impact of the decline in donations.

Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former New York mayor, raised more in the second quarter than he did in the first: $17 million including $2 million that he can use only if he wins the Republican nomination, versus about $15 million. But unlike the first quarter, when his fund-raising operation was just getting up and running, his campaign was fully operational in the second quarter.

As a rule, second-quarter receipts surpass first-quarter receipts, as candidates start to build a larger base of support and voters grow more engaged. Given this, those hoping for a Republican victory next year have to be rather discouraged this week.

In the first quarter, the top three Dems outraised the top three Republicans, $65 million to $50.5 million. In the second quarter, the same test showed Dems ahead, $68.5 million to $48.7 million. The gap is larger, the Dem total went up, and the GOP total went down.

Here’s an even more startling detail: more Americans donated to Barack Obama’s campaign than donated to Giuliani, Romney, and McCain combined.

The New York Times noted, “Put together, the results for the three leading Republicans amounted to a stark indication of a gap in enthusiasm and confidence between the two parties.” That’s putting it mildly.

The trick is figuring out why.

Republicans seem to be blaming Bush and the party’s recent troubles.

The fundraising results continued a striking reversal of fortunes for Democratic presidential hopefuls, who have often labored with less money than their Republican counterparts.

“Clearly, that’s a reflection on the war and a reflection of the past,” said Alex Castellanos, Romney’s media consultant. “There’s a lot of pent-up disappointment in the Republican Party on issues like spending. It’s not just the administration, being unable to keep its promises . . . since we’re the guys in charge, we pay a price for that.”

That’s reasonable enough, as spin goes, but it’s hardly persuasive. There’s a lot of pent-up disappointment in the Democratic base, too, but they’re still actively engaged in helping pick Bush’s replacement. If Republican activists and donors liked what they saw and heard from the leading GOP candidates, they’d write a check. It’s not happening.

Is the Republican field really this uninspiring to the GOP faithful?

But, as always, the media tends to be a bit misleading about the numbers. TPM pointed out that the CNN headline about Giuliani’s fundraising read,

“Giuliani tops ’08 race fundraising.”

I would think for Republicans would be an important qualifier here…

  • They’re still looking for a Ronnie Raygun clone. Ah, if only Bush and the fundies didn’t ban human cloning. It would only take about 60+ years to get another Ronnie.

    (Sung to U2’s I Still haven’t found what I’m Looking for…)
    (The 1%’ers)
    We are the highest bidder
    We now own the oil fields
    Only to be with you (sarcasm)
    Only to be with you (sarcasm)

    We have spent
    We have bribed
    We have bought homes with high walls
    These high walls
    Only to be with you (sarcasm)

    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for
    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for

    (The Fundies)
    We have sold lots of Jesus scripts
    Grabbed money from rubes’ fingertips
    Hate burned like fire
    This burning desire

    We have wore the light cloak of angels
    We have used the words of the devil
    It was moving to the “right”
    We were thick as a stone

    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for
    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for

    (All)
    We believe in the kingdom come
    Then all the power will fall onto us
    Fall onto us
    Well yes we’re still looking

    You spoke the names and you
    spilt the sayings
    Mentioned the Gipper
    In his name
    In his name
    You know We don’t believe it

    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for
    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for
    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for
    But We still haven’t found what we’re looking for

  • One can only hope that the analysis the second week of November 2008 will be that the Republican candidate was simply never able to generate the enthusiasm that the President-elect was able to.

    That said, my concern is that whomever the GOP candidate is, if the Dem candidate is Hillary or Obama, there will be a substantial, and I mean substantial, amount of anti-Hillary, anti-female, or anti-Black fervor.

  • There’s a lot to be said about these fundraising numbers. For example, (as MyDD noted), Romney would be as bad off as McCain, having only $2 million COH were it not for the loans he gave to his campaign.

    Given his leads in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, I really hope he gets the republican nomination.

  • there will be a substantial, and I mean substantial, amount of anti-Hillary, anti-female, or anti-Black fervor. — Homer
    The anti-Hillary sentiment certainly is something to be wary about, but I think it’s more like electric shocks to a person with cardiac arrest at this point. Everyone knows and is probably tired of the Hillary smears, so there’s only so far that more can go. Obama on the other hand can and will be smeared in a manner similar to the swift boaters and that may be a problem. (It won’t stop me from voting for him, but just saying.)

  • The GOP has always been largely funded by the business sector, which also gives money to the Democrats (they effectively pay both sides for “access”) — but they give much more to the GOP. They figure out who to give to and how much to give by what’s in it for them and the probability of that person getting elected.

    Perhaps the business community has figured out that the chances of any of these recycled daddy figures getting elected are slim to none.

    Oh, and the RNC is sucking air as well.

  • Naw… The republif*cks just know that Dubya plans to cancel the election next year, probably due to a ‘terrorist threat’, and appoint himself as president-for-life…

    That being the case, why bother donating to someone to run for an election that won’t happen?…

  • Everyone knows and is probably tired of the Hillary smears, so there’s only so far that more can go. Obama on the other hand can and will be smeared in a manner similar to the swift boaters and that may be a problem.

    Everyone really knows that the Democratic voters aren’t going to stay home and not vote if the nominee is Hillary, despite whatever a poll may say. The supposed anti-Hillary story is just a scare tactic, blown out of proportion. If her campaign is anything like what she’s done so far, she’ll be successful if she gets the nomination.

  • The reason the numbers dropped in Q2 is because Fred Thompson is half in, half out. The donors are waiting to see where the cards lay. This is no time to rest on our laurels.

  • Whoever the Dem candidate is, they need to show that they are able to respond to the smear campaigns that will come. Kerry allowed his campaign to die from a “thousand wounds” by not responding forcefully to the GOP smears. If you can’t stand up to a bunch of political hacks, how the hell are you going to stand up to the real dangers in the world? Or get your agenda pushed thru Congress?

    And yes, I will be actively supporting the Democratic candidate next year, even if it’s Clinton or Obama.

  • I suspect that the best answer to Republican smear tactics, no matter who the Democratic candidate, will simply be, “Even if that cesspit of lies were true, how could he or she possibly be worse than continued Republican control?”

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