Iowa Caucus 101: How It Works (and It Does. Really.)

Guest Post by Zeitgeist

[Editor’s Note: With Caucus Day finally here, and after having a few uncharitable thoughts about the process in Iowa yesterday, Carpetbagger regular Zeitgeist offered to share some valuable insights on the caucuses in this very helpful post. Zeitgeist is, by the way, a real, live Iowan. -CB]

In the past few days there have been a lot of questions, including several to me, about various aspects of the Iowa caucuses: how do they work, is there a basis for John Edwards’ “rural strategy,” when will we know results – and of course a lot of discussion about what they will mean and whether they are entirely “too silly”.

With caucus day now upon us, and apologizing in advance for the length of these posts, I want to do three things: (1) provide a little explanation of what will be happening in Iowa tonight; (2) match that up with some strategic issues (in particular the rural strategy issue); and (3) defend, at least a little, the caucus concept generally (for this post I will stay away from Iowa specifically, or the question of staggered delegate selection versus a same-day national process.)

How the Caucus Works

One bit of background on Iowa that helps. While Iowa is now much less agrarian than it once was, it was once all about small family farms, and the proper scale of almost anything was determined by how long it took to get there/do that and get back home by horse and buggy. While those days are gone, there remains a nostalgic (and, for small rural towns, survivalistic) attachment to the “ma and pa” scale of operations. As a result, Iowa, despite its moderate size, has 99 counties, 150 telephone companies, 350 school districts, and of interest for elections, over 1,700 precincts.

While Iowa’s precinct caucuses may be “first in the nation,” here is a little secret I shouldn’t share because it will only give those opposed to the Iowa caucuses more to aim at: Iowa does not have the first delegate selection date. Iowa’s 57 delegates will be chosen in part on April 26, and in part on June 14. Indeed, tonight’s caucuses do not even elect any of these national convention delegates; the precinct caucuses elect delegates to the district conventions, where national delegates are chosen.

But I get ahead of myself. What matters for now is what does happen tonight.

There are basically two frameworks for selecting delegates to the Democratic National Convention. There are forms of primary elections, which operate much like the general election with some type of ballot. And there are caucuses, which are more like a town hall meeting. In some ways both – because the vote ends up ultimately reduced to a relatively small number of Convention delegates – are part of a proportional representation system. This is, however, much more obvious in a caucus system, particularly a multi-step system like Iowa. It is important to view tonight’s caucus as a step in this proportional and representative system (it is not intended to be direct democracy, and as I discuss later, this is not unique to Iowa – even primary states are generally not truly direct democracy.)

In over 1700 small, neighborhood-sized precincts across Iowa, around 170,000 Iowans over age 17 years and 2 months will go to Democratic precinct caucuses. There they will conduct three kinds of business. The best known, of course, is express a Presidential preference. But they will also (a) propose, and advance or decline, planks for the party platform; and (b) select local party officers and committee members – they will fill the party infrastructure from the ground up.

With regard to the Presidential preferences, ignore the horror stories about “70 page manuals.” Those include all of the other business, and information relevant only to party officials (like the rules for district and state conventions). The Presidential part of the caucus is really no more complicated than, say, doing the Time Warp – its just a jump to the preference group on your left, and if that candidate doesn’t have 15% of the votes in the room, its just a step to the right to show your second choice. (Putting your hands on your hips is entirely optional –although props and food, generally cookies, are routine.)

The caucus begins at 6:30; people have until 7:00 to sign in to be eligible. At 7:00, or the conclusion of a bunch of messages from Iowa elected officials and party leaders, whichever is later, those in attendance form groups who favor a given candidate. Obama supporters may gather in one corner, Clinton supporters in another, etc. This process is open for 30 minutes; it is often kicked off with speeches from a representative of each candidate group. Any group with less than 15% of those in attendance is “non viable” and people in those groups (plus any “uncommitted” group) have the option of expressing a second choice, that is, joining another group. These people tend to get courted extensively and often ask, and get answered, numerous questions about other candidates.

Once this is done, the district convention delegates allotted to that precinct are divided according to the percentages each candidate represents: if a precinct gets 10 district convention delegates, and Obama, Clinton and Edwards each have 28% and Biden has 16%, the top three candidates each get 3 delegates and Biden gets 1. Their respective groups then choose among themselves which 3 people will represent Obama, for example, at district convention.

That is a long background to get us to the two things most non-Iowan political junkies really want to know:

What exactly is it that the media reports?

When the media reports percentages that look like any other election result, what they are really telling you is, of all of the district convention delegates selected, what percentage were committed to a given candidate (i.e. if Clinton is shown with 30%, that means that 30% of those representatives going on to district convention were sent there by caucusers who identified with Clinton.)

When will we know anything?

The earliest preference groups are allowed to form is 7:00; that process must allow 30 minutes, and then “realignment” (in precincts with more than one delegate) must be allowed. Realistically, by the time delegates are apportioned and precinct chairs call the state party’s central reporting desk, it will be 8:00. Most local media appears to be switching to caucus coverage around 9:00 central time.

Post Script: Alas, I had more work than planned last night and it messed up my schedule, which is why I comment on Steve’s blog rather than maintaining one of my own. I will try to put Parts II and III in the comments thread throughout the day, but since this is the factual background and the other two parts are just my opinion which you all get plenty of, this is the more important part to get posted. Besides, if my favored candidate doesn’t prevail, I may change my mind before Part III’s defense of the caucus.

Thanks to Mr. Carpetbagger for being kind enough to offer a chance for an informative counterpoint on the Iowa caucuses by Mr. Zeitgeist!

  • Thanks, Zeitgeist.

    BTW, if you can, let us know how you would feel if some other state got to be the kingmaker instead of Iowa. The attitude I always get from Iowans and people from NH is “get over it” as if that’s a decent answer to the question “what the hell makes you so special?”. If (and I don’t know) someone has to go first, why should it always be the same two states? Since Iowa is only 7% non-white, it would seem to be a bad place to have such prominence in picking a Democratic candidate.

  • “Most local media appears to be switching to caucus coverage around 9:00 central time”

    You mean they start reporting numbers, or we’ll have a good sense by 9 PM?

  • Zeitgeist wrote: (and It Does. Really.)

    A little pushy, don’t you think?

    What about the media phenomenon CB talked about in a post a couple of days ago- everyone acting like the person who wins the Iowa caucus has to be a shoo-in?

    And what about all the ways the Iowa caucus is run that keep people from voting? These aren’t things people are imagining. These are the same types of things that were intentionally used in the South (and are still used by the GOP today) to keep blacks and liberals from voting, historically. Any civil rights lawyer would recognize that immediately. There is no way this process is not screwed up.

  • Thanks for a great explanation, Zeitgeist. I hope it clarifies the caucus issue for those who have been baffled. “See” you at the Caucus tonight, and looking forward to parts II and III.

  • Thanks for doing this Zeitgeist – it helps a lot to understand what is happening and what it means.

    Will look forward to Parts II and III.

  • There is no way this process is not screwed up. -Swan

    Someone check hell for snow because I completely agree.

  • Since Iowa is only 7% non-white

    And it’s not just race, it’s gender too – I can guarantee that Hillary will do better among men under a secret ballot system.

  • …and the proper scale of almost anything was determined by how long it took to get there/do that…

    So basically, a meeting of the Ents is going to have a ridiculous influence on the selection of our next president.

    All joking aside, thank you for the summary.

  • Can those in a “non-viable” group join another “non-viable” group to get to the 15% threshold, or are they limited to joining those that met the 15% threshold in the first pass?

  • dat (#10), I’m not from Iowa, but according to the explainer in the NYTimes today, nonviable groups can link up to form a viable one (but, I would presume, they have to agree on a single candidate).

  • Thanks for the rundown, Zeitgeist. As one who’s been taking some of the potshots at the caucus system, I appreciate the effort to clarify. I’ll just echo the Hitchens point that a conventional primary (such as what we have here in Missouri) doesn’t require a three-part explanation [/snark].

    It may surprise you to hear that I was born and grew up in Iowa, and thus have direct memories of the caucuses. I was too young to participate, but I do remember how the folks coming back from the ’76 caucuses were all on about some dude we’d never heard of called Jimmy Carter. I think it’s safe to say that without the Iowa caucuses, Carter would never have become President. Whether that’s a good or bad thing I’ll leave to others.

  • “While those days are gone, there remains a nostalgic (and, for small rural towns, survivalistic) attachment to the “ma and pa” scale of operations” – Zeitgeist

    Please, this system is just plain silly. For anyone arguing that the electoral system is antiquated might want to read this. This seems like a pure pressure system from start to finish. I am assuming that even this day and age, everyone at the precinct knows each other. A couple of questions:

    Is this done as gracefully as you lead on or is the ‘courting’ a little more intense ??

    What happens to all the people who can not make it 6:30 ??

    What percentage of minorities show, be it women, old people, or people of different faith or race compared to their actual numbers ??

    Is that percentage inline with non-minority turnout ??

    I am seriously having a hard time wrapping my head around this.

    Seems to me this system is made for a certain class of people, namely 5-9ers who are at home every night and people who want their neighbors knowing their political views. I just don’t see many minorities and women participating in a system that is open. To me, voting, regardless of the level is something of a private affair.

    I get the whole nostalgia thing, but can we save nostalgia for parades and square dancing, and elect presidential hopefuls in the most efficient and reliable way that technology allows ??

  • Iowa Caucus 201: Beyond the Basic Framework – Part II

    Ok, so if that is how caucuses work in general, what does it mean to the campaigns?

    Anne asked a question in comments the other day, and since I always enjoy Anne’s posts, I want to make sure it gets addressed. She asked about the theory that Edwards has a unique strength in rural Iowa that may surprise folks. There have been mentions that a small rural precinct may have as much weight as a large urban precinct. The answer is (not to be lawyerly, but. . .) yes and no.

    I mentioned in the earlier post that this is representative democracy — there are over 1700 precincts and what they are really doing is selecting a limited number of delegates (representatives) to the district conventions. What I glossed over is how each precinct’s number of delegates is determined.

    An unavoidable mathematical issue with representative democracy is that everyone has to be represented by someone – that is, no matter how small a given political subdivision’s share of the population is, we never “round down” to zero representatives, we round up (this is one reason small states are over-represented in the Electoral College – even the smallest states have two Senators and one Representative). As a result, the smallest units will almost always be overweighted in a representative system. In Iowa, the number of delegates is based on “Democratic performance” in the prior Presidential and Gubernatorial (off year) elections – for each precinct, what share of the total statewide vote for the Democratic candidate came from that precinct? That ratio is applied to the total number of district convention delegates to determine the number of delegates from a given precinct – but that number will always be at least one, as shown in this table of the apportionment of all of tonight’s delegates.

    In this regard, a strong showing by Edwards in rural areas likely does result in a disproportionate number of delegates for Edwards. There are three confounding factors, however. First, the apportionment is, of necessity, backward-looking. A sudden burst of turnout in a given precinct may help a candidate get all of that precinct’s delegates, but it cannot increase the number of delegates the precinct has. Second, “small” and “rural” are not necessarily the same here: urban areas may be carved into enough precincts that some have fewer attendees than some rural precincts. Third, while thee rewards of a rural strategy may be disproportionate, so is the effort required – the population density in truly rural areas can be very low, making things like door knocking or providing rides to caucuses much more resource intensive than it is in an urban or suburban area.

    Another strategic issue is second choices. Again, Edwards has a bit of an advantage here because a much higher portion of his support has prior caucus experience. The first time one attends a caucus, it is an unfamiliar activity. But several people do come uncommitted, and others will be non-viable, and having precinct captains able to pitch your candidate effectively is a huge asset. For Edwards supporters, this will seem much more familiar – they know how to work the crowd because they have done it four years ago. To answer an earlier question, two non-viable groups can form a viable group — and sometimes in a large field, you can end up with a viable (and sometimes even the largest) group for “uncommitted,” and send uncommitted delegates to the district or state convention.

    Part III, my effort to take on the world and defend the caucuses, coming soon. . .

  • From yesterdays thread:

    Mike in Iowa said: “Iowa Democrats are choosing their delegates for their state and national conventions. If you don’t want to pay attention to it don’t.”

    And as Zeit has pointed out, they aren’t really choosing delegates until April, so we won’t know how many votes Hilary, Barack and John have at the Convention until then.

    So why, wonders I, does IOWA insist on moving its date for this ‘unimportant, just pay not attention to the people behind the curtain’ caucus every time Florida or Michigan tries to get ahead of them?

    Because they are trying to warp the outcome of the primary season for the rest of us and they aren’t going to give that up, no matter what?

    Ethanol pledge, anyone?

  • Some quick math. There are 301,139,947 people in the United States as of July 2007. According to the article, about 170,000 people participate in the Iowa caucuses. We’re expecting (not certain) that top tier Democrats are going to get about a third, or 56,100 votes.

    That’s less than two hundredths of one percent of the population in the United States.

    Is the impact the results generate proportional to that?

    I understand the value of tradition; I understand the level of engagement that 170,000 people feel caucusing brings to the table; I understand the ego driven desire to be first; but is the trade off worth it?

    I don’t think so, and I believe it has an impact shaping the elections far beyond just the results and consequences of tonight’s meetings. I believe it has an impact on disengaging hundreds of thousands of voters who don’t feel they have any impact on the primaries. It’s only a hop from there to stop voting in the general.

    Think about the polls and all the attention they’ve been given? Most of the polls focus on Iowa and New Hampshire. Front runners emerge because of the undue respect these polls are given. When was the last time you saw a poll about the Presidential race out of Indiana? Or Oregon?

    I find I am less enamored by the Iowan tradition and more bound by my love for this country to find a more just and fair way to pick the singular leader that we all share as 50 states and one nation.

    And, let’s be honest, when was the last time the current system produced a really great President? Change is in the air.

  • Iowa Caucus 301: Defending Your Thesis – Part III

    Every four years there are numerous attacks on the Iowa caucuses. Many (I personally believe most) have to do with Iowa getting the extraordinary attention of going first; even then it seems little of it has to do with Iowa per se, that the same concern would be aimed at any state that starts the process. For the purpose of this post, I am setting all of that aside and focusing solely on the concerns raised about using a caucus rather than a primary to select a state’s delegates.

    One of the complaints is that Iowa’s process is, taken as a whole, simply too unusual to be meaningful. But Iowa is not the only caucus state – not even among early states. In addition to Iowa, Nevada is an early caucus, and states like Minnesota, Colorado, and Alaska use caucuses as part of their national convention delegate selection process (some states actually use a combination!) Moreover, many of the specific concerns people have about the caucuses are really attributable to any kind of a proportional, representative system with viability thresholds (they just happen to be more visible with caucuses). As this article explains, using Illinois as an example, even the mechanics of primary states end up looking a lot like those of caucus states behind the scenes:

    for example, Illinois’ Democratic Party Delegate Selection Plan says:
    The Illinois presidential primary election is a binding primary. Accordingly, delegate and alternate positions shall be allocated so as to fairly reflect the expressed presidential (or uncommitted) preference of the primary voters in each district. The National Convention delegates and alternates selected at the district level shall be allocated in proportion to the percentage of the primary vote won in that district by each preference, except that preferences falling below a 15% threshold shall not be awarded any delegates or alternates.


    Another criticism is that Iowa’s caucuses have such low turnout that they don’t even fairly represent Iowans. Again, the relevant question is “compared to what?” As it happens this is not an Iowa caucus phenomenon; this is a problem with the electorate. USA Today reported in the last Presidential nominating cycle that through 2004’s mass primary on March 2, only 7.2% of the population voted. Vermont set a new record turnout for a primary election at just 16% — and that was with a home-state candidate. It also is important to remember that these are partisan functions – choosing the nominee for a particular party. As a result, many states have “closed” or semi-closed processes. Iowa is semi-closed: only Democrats can participate in the Democratic caucus, but you can register as a Democrat at the caucus. In 2004, however, 22% of the already-registered Democrats caucused. The state turnout numbers are low in part because 1/3rd of all Iowans choose not to affiliate with a party. One consequence of that, logically, is that they are not the real constituency for either party’s process of choosing a partisan candidate. You can fault the two-party system, but this particular aspect is not a complaint about caucuses as opposed to primaries.

    It was asked in comments how this impacts minorities. I don’t have comparative statistics handy, but one of your listed groups was older voters – those happen to be the most likely participants in the caucuses. Iowa Victory Gardener, who I believe lives in a more diverse part of town than I do, may be able to add some on minorities, but having been a precinct captain in 88 for Dukakis in a precinct where Jesse Jackson won, I certainly have seen racial, ethnic, and political minorities show up to caucus.

    The biggest criticism is that the caucuses are “not democratic.” This is really several arguments packed together; mainly that certain classes of citizens are excluded by the lack of an absentee voting mechanism, and that the voting is public, not a secret ballot. Again, the starting point has to be “compared to what?” As we saw in Ohio in the 2004 general, until we have a national election holiday, multi-day or weekend voting, or voting by mail, every system will disenfranchise some – usually, unfortunately, the working class, who have less control over their time. This is, however, a very valid concern that even most caucus defenders recognize. It certainly makes a caucus process unsuitable for general elections or larger scale elections. But I discuss some positive aspects of caucuses below and many here (myself included) believe that for the scale and purpose of the Iowa caucuses, the positives outweigh this negative.

    As for the lack of secret balloting, I cannot imagine anything more in sync with the core democratic principles of this country than neighbors coming together to discuss civic issues. Town meetings were widely held out as the ideal at the founding – everyone (then defined of course as male landed gentry; Iowa has corrected that) could come and have a say and be heard. Citizens had the opportunity to convince one another, to seek consensus as a community of interest. That remains a fundamental attraction of the caucuses. Delegate selection is inside baseball for a party. There is no reason the standards need be the same as in a general election. There are many civic activities where anonymity is not possible – voicing your opinion at a city council meeting is a good example. The caucus is a civic activity, not just a general election. (By the way, the most anti-democratic aspect of the delegate selection process has nothing to do with the primary/caucus distinction; it is the use of Superdelegates. Just over 50% of Iowa’s national convention delegates will be chosen in a manner that is related to tonights caucuses; the rest are “at large” district or state convention choices and party Superdelegates – and that would be true even if Iowa used a primary.)

    Which brings me to the virtues of a caucus system, some more highminded, some merely tactical, but all of which have to be part of the balance.

    I am always somewhat surprised that progressives are so anti-caucus. To me, a caucus captures many of the things progressives tend to support. As a delegate-selection device, they are more grassroots-oriented, more transparent, encourage discourse and engagement, they better for party building, and best of all they are the closest thing we have to Instant Runoff Voting.

    * Grassroots and Transparency. As I explained earlier, even when a state uses a primary, it remains representative rather than direct democracy: at the end of the day, that state has say 30 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Those hundreds of thousands of voters in the primary get converted to national delegates somehow. Like the Electoral College, most people probably cannot name their delegates. Those decisions are likely made the old fashioned non-progressive way: top down in the party structure or candidate campaign. In that sense, it is important that “messy” not be confused with “secretive,” a charge I have heard leveled against the caucus process. Tonight, it will be the grassroots Obama, Clinton and Edwards supporters themselves who will decide, bottom up, who amongst them goes on as their representatives (a process that will be repeated at district and then state convention to determine the national delegates). It will be public; at the end of the night, the entire caucus will ratify the slate of delegates. This is the polar opposite of the “smoke filled rooms” that good government progressives allegedly abhor. Added bonus: the party platform bubbles up from the grassroots through these meetings tonight as well – with more people in attendance than would ever be possible were it not linked to presidential preference.

    * Instant Runoff Voting. The caucuses provide an excellent example of IRV, a cause of many progressives. If I go to a primary and vote for Dodd, and he falls below that state’s viability threshold (and remember, known or not, most states have either a formal threshold or a de facto threshold as they apply the math of delegate apportionment), I have no say in who gets the delegates. In Iowa, I know right away, and I can express another choice that keeps my voice relevant in delegate selection. This is what progressives argue for.

    * Engagement and discourse. The unfortunate man-bites-dog story of the Iowa Democratic woman who believed Obama was a Muslim was tossed around yesterday. In a primary election, she goes to the polls, silent in her error, and votes against Obama. At her caucus, she can ask an Obama supporter, who can disabuse her of her error. An Obama supporter may make a speech that preempts the entire issue. It is the last best chance to hear the arguments – not from paid media, or other screens, but from your neighbors, people who will be impacted in ways similar to you by the choices. It encourages not just passive, McDonalds drive-thru convenience – it encourages active, intellectual participation.

    * Testing a campaign’s organization. From a strictly strategic standpoint, there is no better trial run for a campaign’s organization. Caucuses are harder for a campaign to organize than a primary election – turnout is much harder, polling is much harder. If you want a shakedown cruise for your eventual nominee, a caucus is your best bet.

    * Long term party building. I know many here proudly have loose party affiliation, but those partisan Democrats, caucuses are a great device, great infrastructure for the “50 state strategy” that Dean is implementing. In every neighborhood in Iowa tonight, Democrats will essentially have a “Meet Up” – they will get to know each other, they will share their views, elect among themselves for party committees and positions, work together to find common ground to write platform planks, and share in each others’ energy. These connections, this network, becomes the ground-level foundation for the party that is built on top of it. Driving up to a voting booth and privately sticking a scan card in does not provide any of this – it is an isolating rather than a communal activity; politics should be the opposite. Politics should be about communities, participating in them, building them, energizing them.

    Whew. I know I wont convince many. But there are a lot of flaws in primaries that go unnoticed while the spotlight magnifies the problems of the caucus. Unfortunately, that spotlight misses a lot of the positives. The caucuses are a great example of engaged grassroots participation in a Democratic community – something we should all want to encourage even if we disagree on whether those positives outweigh the problems.

    I’ll post more later and tonight after the caucus – in the meantime, if anyone else would like to step up and help defend, I could use the help! 🙂

  • I still expect the Iowa process to do a great disservice to the country and push forward lesser candidates that the media will wrap around the neck of already over-burdened Americans. I hope that I am wrong, but I expect the next four years to SUCK!

  • Lance @ 16: no, Iowa’s fight predates the ethanol pledge. Iowa fights because of the direct benefit of the caucus. To most of the country, for 3 1/2 years, this is fly-over country. People don’t know Iowa from Idaho from Ohio. But for a brief window every 4 years, we exist. (Hey, don’t we deserve that small bone?)

    I make it sound like a purely existensial, “this is the only way we get our turn” thing but it is much more concrete than that: current estimated economic impact of this years caucuses in Iowa is $50-60 million.

    Kevin @ 18: You are correct. The 15% viability will apply almost everywhere, but in those precincts with fewer than 6 district convention delegates to send, viability will be higher because using 15% would result in more viable candidates than there are delegates to give them.

    Doubtful/Swan (never thought I’d type those together. . .) – if I can find time after getting back to my day job and if I can muster some energy, I’ll try to respond re what amounts to a single state versus national primary issue.

  • I have participated in a caucus in the past and can tell you that there was fair representation as far as gender. The types of folks that attend caucuses are not intimidating people and I even as a timid person, I never felt bullied or intimidated whatsoever. The caucus, which began in the early 1800s, are attended by those who are active in their parties or communities and are genuinely concerned with selecting the proper delegates to represent them at the state level. All ages and economic classes are represented. In the early 1970s, the Iowa Democratic Party made reforms to their delegate selection process. One such reform required a minimum of 30 days between the precinct caucuses and the county and state conventions. When the 1972 Democratic State Convention was scheduled for May 20, the new rules dictated that the precinct caucus be January 24, thereby making it the first statewide test for presidential candidates in the nation. In 1976, recognizing the increased exposure, the Republican Party of Iowa moved their caucus to the same date as the Democrats. In 1972, a New York Times article described the caucus and noted its ability to pick the presidential nominees (pre-media circus). This attracted media attention from outside of the State and every 4 years the media storm has grown and become more sensationalized to the point that people feel the Iowa results decide the winners. And to be honest, it generates a lot of revenue for a state that normally would never receive much outside revenue (not many family vacations are spent traveling to Iowa).

  • Not to dis Zeitgeist’s native home, but all this talk of fighting over second choicer’s prove that the caucusing does not work well. These are nothing but (probably mildly successful attempts at organizing some strategic voting and gaming/breaking the system, instead of arriving at an optimum candidate. I’d be nice if we used a real voting system instead.

  • …if anyone else would like to step up and help defend, I could use the help! 🙂 -Z

    To be honest, I think the opposing sides are getting pretty even in numbers.

    I am always somewhat surprised that progressives are so anti-caucus. -Z

    I consider myself a fairly aggressive progressive, so I’ll field this one.

    I don’t know if most progressives would readily advocate a system that is closed to so many people. My goal is to get more people to vote in primaries and in general elections. The increased level of engagement in the Iowa caucuses for a handful of Iowans only serves to make so much of the rest of the United States feel like they are less important and have no impact.

    The only evidence I need of this is the wildly chaotic build-up to this primary cycle. With all of the leap frogging to try to be first or early, it’s clearly evident that people are seeking a change.

    I think one of the core values of being a progressive to to make sure that every voice is heard, and the current system, while good for a few, is not good for the many.

    In a primary election, she goes to the polls, silent in her error, and votes against Obama. At her caucus, she can ask an Obama supporter, who can disabuse her of her error. -Z

    I find it hard to believe that a Clinton supporter going to the caucuses with the notion that Obama is a Muslim will be convinced by an Obama supporter that he is not. I find it doubly hard to believe that once the unlikely convincing has taken place that said Clinton supporter will jump to Obama’s camp.

    Let’s be honest, the only people jumping camp are the supporters of candidates who didn’t make the cut-off, so really, all it does is provide momentum to top tiers while snuffing out second tier candidates and perpetuates the media driven separation that many of us find distasteful in the first place.

    But there are a lot of flaws in primaries that go unnoticed while the spotlight magnifies the problems of the caucus. -Z

    Well, my overall problem with the method and order of the primary is my overall problem with all elections in general. It’s the root of our nature as human beings, but something we should overcome, as Oregon has, in order to make a fair and just system.

    We must overcome our need for instant gratification. If there was no ‘first state’ and voting took place over a period of two or more weeks, we’d not exclude anyone who wanted to participate. Military, parents, evening shift, people who are out of town, even just shy people, everyone. If the ballots are secret, people could vote without fear.

    It’s not 1876 anymore. Hell, it’s not even 1976 anymore. The world is different, but our methods stay the same, and I believe clearly aren’t working.

    The first step to getting people engaged isn’t a town hall meeting in their precinct. It’s getting them to think they count.

    Why do they keep the vote tally secret? I know it’s still a representative delegate system, and ultimately that’s what matters, but why? Is it because they are afraid of the backlash when the rest of America figures out how few there are making the decisions for so many? Or is it because it’s simply not that accurate?

  • …it is much more concrete than that: current estimated economic impact of this years caucuses in Iowa is $50-60 million. -Z

    Ah. There it is. The first rule of politics: follow the money. Is it really that significant, though? What’s Iowa’s GDP for 2007? Around $110 billion?

    ’ll try to respond re what amounts to a single state versus national primary issue. -Z

    Keep in mind I favor this only for the office of President. As I said yesterday, Iowa can have a sack races to pick their Senators and Representatives for all I care, although I’m a firm believer in national election standards because:

    1. Diebold
    2. Hanging Chads
    3. Expunged Voters

    I think we gain more than we lose by having national standards.

    Of course, we have to rely on those who benefit from a flawed system to change it, so….

  • Zeitgeist said:
    “Lance @ 16: no, Iowa’s fight predates the ethanol pledge. Iowa fights because of the direct benefit of the caucus. To most of the country, for 3 1/2 years, this is fly-over country. People don’t know Iowa from Idaho from Ohio. But for a brief window every 4 years, we exist. (Hey, don’t we deserve that small bone?)”

    Actually, NO!

    The President of the United States. The Leader of the Free World. The Dark Manipulator of the World’s Economy 😉

    And you think for some reason we should let Iowa distort the process by telling us what precentage of the precinct delegates have been assigned to the top two or three Candidates for each party. We don’t get real numbers of voters out of this process, we get data that is essentially TRASH. None of which means anything at the convention because you haven’t chosen National Convention Delegates.

    All of which exists solely to filter candidates through your wingnut and moonbat activists.

    And what I hate most about this Zeitgeist is that you’ve got me agreeing with DAVID BRODER!

    Gah! Shows just how evil the process is right there.

  • Thanks, Zeitgeist. Great of you to take time out of your day to explain a process that is a mystery to most. Always helpful to have some background before popping off with an opinion. Now get back to work.

  • To most of the country, for 3 1/2 years, this is fly-over country. People don’t know Iowa from Idaho from Ohio. But for a brief window every 4 years, we exist. (Hey, don’t we deserve that small bone?) -Zeitgeist

    What about the other states that are fly over, like Idaho or Ohio. This has got to be one of the most idiotic ways to pick a future presidential candidate. People in Iowa do not come close to representing America. It’s a fly over state for a reason, yet their opinions for something this important are unfairly weighted. It’s no disrespect to you, just to your entire state for putting the cash it arrives from this fiasco about the best interests of the nation.

    How fricken republican is that ??

    There has got to be a better way man.

    Am I seriously the only one who finds this process anything but nostalgic ?? Even Zeitgeist defends almost ever criticism with pointing out that’s just how it’s done elsewhere.

    The point here is that what is going to be publicized is not the actual delegates Iowa ‘elects’, but what percentages come from the caucus. Huh ??

    I get that you are defending a time honored tradition, but please quit acting like it’s a good one. This is faulty from start to finish. If you didn’t live their you would be wondering WTF as well.

    Anyways, enough ranting, I do appreciate the knowledge Zeitgeist. It’s no small feat explaining a very complicated system to heathens like myself in terms we can understand.

  • Thanks for the insight into a unique bit of Americana, Zeitgeist. Iowans are just choosing their candidates in their own way. It’s the media and politicians who are making it such a big deal. If nothing else it’s a great way to make candidates jump through some hoops they might not otherwise.

  • OK, here’s a question for ya, zeitgeist: What is the actual percentage of people in the country who sell corn, and why is it that they get to have such a huge influence on our energy policy? Would they have that influence if the #1 corn producing state wasn’t so determined to be first?

    This system is totally whack, and everyone knows it. All you have to do to realize that is ask yourself if it would still be OK if you lived in another state and got to have ZERO influence on the nominee process. Be honest, and the answer is clear: Democracy depends on as many people as possible being involved in the political process. I agree with doubtful in #17: it has an impact on disengaging hundreds of thousands of voters who don’t feel they have any impact on the primaries. It’s only a hop from there to stop voting in the general.

    This fuckery by a few states keeps millions of us from being able to pick the actual candidate we would support. THEY get to pick from some actual choices, but we get to pick “Republican or Democrat”.

  • Zeitgeist, thanks for a thoughtful, informative post and follow-up in the comments. Still, I’m much more of Steve’s mind on this. I’m for town hall meetings, but as town hall meetings. I don’t like that those who can’t attend are excluded from the process. I also don’t see a problem with making a secret ballot that allows one to designate one’s second and third choices, if applicable. There’s also nothing to prevent residents from meeting and hashing out their picks on their own, before a primary vote, to preserve that element. Of course, the state party can do as it likes, but I’m much more in favor of a rotating regional primary system, or something similar. Iowa and NH can even be exempted and still go first; I can live with that. The big problem, besides the lack of public funding for elections, is that the media coverage is so painfully shallow Iowa and NH have far more impact than they should. I appreciate that residents of Iowa and NH take their political role seriously. But they’re simply not representative of the country as a whole. If you can think of a way to eliminate vapid horse race coverage, the system’s timetable is far less important, but it doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The press always tries to play kingmaker, and their collective judgment is unfailingly horrible. Unfortunately, their chatter and need to invent and re-invent silly narratives does affect the exposure of candidates and the money they can raise. (As an aside, I’ve lived in most regions of the U.S., but I’m originally from the Midwest, and went to college there, too.)

  • Zeitgeist– First, I would really like to thank you for a very interesting, detailed, and informative description of the way the Iowa Caucuses work. I have to say that, after reading this, I have a much better understanding of the system, and I can see much of the justification for it.

    As an analogy, I see your system as basically choosing a boxer by committee– two teams are choosing their favorite boxer to go to the fight. This helps to explain the openness and transparency (i.e. the absence of secret ballots), as it would be natural to want to convince others in the committee as to why your particular boxer would be more likely to beat the other team’s boxer….

    And, in a perfect and linear world, where that choice translated directly into the final match, I would whole-heartedly support it. However, we don’t!

    Because of the myriad of other factors involved– not least the media’s role in playing up or down candidates based on the outcome of Iowa, and the demonstrative effect which that has been seen to have (Dean) on primaries down the line, but also our modern-day problems with enough of the electorate being able to participate– I cannot support a system like this. A subset category of a subset of the population of a rural state is, in conjunction with New Hampshire (a place I also disagree with), essentially declaring the next candidate for President?

    Please don’t take it the wrong way, but I am from Vermont, which has something like 600,000 people in it– a fraction of a percent of the U.S. population. These micro-cultures should NOT have a disproportionate effect on the determination of such an important matter as which person becomes our favored candidate for President (or who becomes the actual President, for that matter– but my problems with the electoral college can wait until a different discussion).

  • Racerx @ 30:

    OK, here’s a question for ya, zeitgeist: What is the actual percentage of people in the country who sell corn, and why is it that they get to have such a huge influence on our energy policy? Would they have that influence if the #1 corn producing state wasn’t so determined to be first?

    Perhaps corn would not be as favored in energy policy were Iowa not first, but (a) instead someone else’s parochial interest — oil? steel? sugar? cotton? tech? hedge funds? — would be; and (b) the likely result would be worse because, you’ll recall, the fight over “cleaner” gasoline additives was between ethanol and MBTE, which by all accounts from anyone not in Texas or California is environmentally worse than ethanol. Without Iowa’s place in the nominating calendar, MBTE would have won that fight easily. Nothing happens in a vacuum, and it Iowa or caucuses always have to be measured not against perfection or an abstraction, but against the next most likely alternative.

  • RacerX, also @30 (sorry, trying to catch up on a lot of questions):

    This fuckery by a few states keeps millions of us from being able to pick the actual candidate we would support. THEY get to pick from some actual choices, but we get to pick “Republican or Democrat”.

    Let me pick up where i just left off about alternative outcomes. I would argue, although I understand the disingenuousness of it, that it is not Iowa, but the media that causes this effect.

    But my bigger issue is that I do not necessarily buy the assumption that you would have more choices in a different system, unless your state happened to be first. Presumably we can agree that the “first-state screening” phenomenon is not due to anything about Iowa — it would happen with any first state.

    So the real argument is would you and all not living in the first state or states have more choice under a national primary? Sounds reasonable, but in reality I doubt you would. Long before Iowa “screened” anyone today, numerous candidates (mainly Republican) dropped out. Why? They couldn’t raise any money. Iowa is not necessarily where the money comes from – money is a national phenomenon. And it would take a lot more to compete in a national primary — nearly as much as the general election. People like Dodd probably dont even attempt a national primary. The fact that the process starts in one or two affordable states allows people like Dodd, Biden, the Thompson Twins (Tommy and Fred) to take a shot and see if they can catch lightning in a bottle (like Carter did, like Dean appeared to have done, like Huckabee might have done). That phenomenon has no chance in a national primary.

    In fact, anyone who has a primary or caucus on or before Feb 5th this year may well have more choice than they would have had in a national primary system. Obviously there is no way to prove which of us is making the correct assumption, but I do not think you can rule out the occurrence of what would really be a non-transparent “money primary” replacing Iowa as the screener before a national primary. Until you can reduce the role of money, your choices likely remain just as or even more limited under a scenario other than “small first state.”

  • I’d like to know what Des Moines will do with all those 2000 rental cars when all is said & done. Soooo lucky they don’t leave anything out when reporting, eh?

  • I’d like to add my voice to the gallery of thanks to Zeitgeist for the article and follow-ups as well. Obviously from the comments Steve’s post generated yesterday about the caucuses, Zeitgeist knew many people disagreed, myself included, so thanks for treading in shark infested waters!

    I certainly appreciate the effort and the information, as well and the consistently engaging discussion in the comments.

    Might I also add to all of those in Iowa, I won’t begrudge you of a good time tonight; have fun at the caucus, and please, don’t screw it up for the rest of us! 🙂

  • Zeit, I join with everyone to say a big ‘Thank you!’ for taking the time to shed some much-needed light on a very important process. Even after all these years I had no real idea of how things work in Iowa, and I’m very grateful for the knowledge you’ve given us. I would almost wish I lived in Iowa because it does sound like everyone who participates really enjoys the experience.

    Almost, that is. The weather would be a big turnoff, but I still grock the rural lifestyle. 🙂

    Having said that, I still find myself fundamentally siding with Doubtful’s side of the question. Granting every point you made in your excellent posts, the basic defense you and other defenders make is: “We like doing it this way because it’s fun and we don’t want to change it.”

    I have absolutely no problem with that, but as others have said, the world has changed and the issues are larger than those contained within a buggy ride from home. There are millions of people who are at risk of losing their homes, their traditions, their very lives from rising ocean levels which the Bush administration has done nothing about and indeed wants nothing more than to prevent anything from being done about it.

    Population pressures around the world are going to put more and more strain on global resources, and it’s not impossible that wars will break out over such basic needs as water let alone oil in the years to come.

    I say, let Iowans handle their affairs any way they want to. But they shouldn’t cling to a position of influence their methods don’t entitle them to anymore, if they ever did. Tradition is not enough when so much is at stake for so many people, and at no time has the phrase “Think Globally” been more appropriate.

    I honor you, my friend, but in the final analysis I can’t accept your conclusions. I remain, as always, your humble and obedient servant,

    ~Curmudgeon

  • ScottW @ 28

    People in Iowa do not come close to representing America

    And nor do the people of any other single state. Iowa is almost exactly on the “national” demographics in some areas and very far off in others. (And some ways Iowa differs may actually be desirable to making political choices: generally a higher level of civic participation and more high school graduates.)

    Again, all this really goes to is whether to have a single state (or a very small number of states in close succession) lead off, or to have a national (or super-regional) primaries. I happen to think those wishing for a national primary would be disappointed if they got it: I believe there would be fewer choices, and the remaining choices would run even “safer” campaigns, money would be even more prominent, and instead of Iowa and New Hampshire forcing candidates to engage at a human scale, no one would – it would be all media.

    I completely understand that other states would like the benefits of going first; that may be a matter of fairness (although the order should be determined well in advance for the sake of candidates and the massive logistics issues that Iowa and New Hampshire now have down to a science). But that is a very different argument from finding something wrong with Iowa per se — any single lead-off state will be wholly arbitrary.

    Let me add, apropos to nothing in Scott’s post, that I also happen to be a fan of methodological diversity: I think it is beneficial to have Iowa and New Hampshire using different methods to select delegates. It puts the campaigns and candidates to differing tests, and provides a a cross-check between depth of support (important to a caucus) and breadth of support (important to an open primary).

  • Zeitgeist, you keep repeating here the notion we have a choice between letting Iowa go first or having a National Primary. Those aren’t the only options (In fact I don’t think anyone has pushed for every state to go on one day).

    As for another thing, New Hampshire’s and Iowa’s insistence in going first has us all shivering for news tonight, when a controlled process would push the first states back to May and greatly reduce the time between the last states (say the first Tuesday of July) and the nominating conventions. We’re looking at something like a six month dead time between the last real primary and the conventions this year, when most of the airwaves will be filled with swift boat style ads.

    And if the suffering of the caucus goers does not move your heart Zeit, consider the volunteers who’ve spent DAYS out in the December and January cold going door to door trying to firm up their candidates’ support. Causing that I think is down right criminal.

    Nope, as educational as you have been today Zeit, you have only convinced me of how profoundly wrong it is to have Iowa go first alone.

  • Lance,

    I agree there are more options that “Iowa first” and “national primary,” but many of the people i have been responding to have in the past expressed a preference for national same day primary. I do think, despite the various options, most have the same aspects people complaint about re Iowa/New Hampshire unless and until you get to (a) a very structured, multi-state per voting-day system, (b) a super-regional primary system or (c) national primary.

    Some time ago on CBR I proposed a system that was more of less like this:

    First Saturday in March – 4-5 states with 10% of delegates from diverse parts of country (New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Idaho, South Carolina for example)

    First Saturday in April – approx 10 states with 20% of delegates (in each case, from a mix of regions and demographics)

    First Saturday in May – states with 20% of delegates

    First Saturday in June – states with remaining 50% of delegates

    This does a number of things. First, it starts small, allowing affordable, human scale campaigns a chance to catch fire. Second, it is backweighted enough that the last set of states still matters — you cannot clinch without that last voting day. Third, it simultaneously avoids regionalist influence (like the “Super” primaries have created), and provides diversity along numerous lines that solves the lack of representativeness that people complaint about re Iowa and NH. It allows a reasonable time between voting days, yet does not drag on as long as the old January to July calendars used to.

    Maybe you rotate them on a pre-announced basis every two cycles or something to avoid the “why does X always go Y in the order?” rants.

  • I agree there are more options that “Iowa first” and “national primary,” but many of the people i have been responding to have in the past expressed a preference for national same day primary. -Zeitgeist

    I’d like to see a longer window of voting available, similar to the Oregon model. Let’s mail out ballots to registered voters by party. In that packet is a list of local town hall meetings that will be available during the voting period.

    Have that voting period last for a month. Allow for mail returns and ballot drop off locations.

    This gives people a chance to research each candidate by name in the comfort of their home or library or bathroom; Anywhere you prefer to do research. It also provides for the community based engagement through the scheduled town-halls.

    We could even stagger the voting window across regions, but let’s keep the results quiet until all windows are closed. The beauty of the mail-in ballot is we also don’t have to parse exit polling.

    All registered voters, regardless of evening shift jobs, children, military commitments, mobility restrictions, fear, or myriad other reasons gets a chance to have their voice heard.

    It’s not who goes first that causes the problems. It’s the knowledge of the outcome. That’s the hard part because it’s in our nature to be nosy, it’s in the media’s nature to indulge our nosiness, and it’s in the ego’s nature to be the first and to spoil the end of the Sixth Sense for everyone.

  • I get the whole nostalgia thing, but can we save nostalgia for parades and square dancing, and elect presidential hopefuls in the most efficient and reliable way that technology allows ??

    Why deal with technology here? Oregon’s all-mail ballot system has proven itself to be both inexpensive and utterly reliable. There hasn’t been (to my knowledge) a single case of even the intimation of error or fraud as long as they’ve been doing it. I don’t see why such a system might not be used for primaries as well. One great advantage of it is that you can vote at your leisure, sitting around the table with family and/or friends, discussing your reasons for voting like you do. I dare say you could even throw voting parties (though I don’t know if anybody in Oregon does such things) where you get a group of people together to do some of the same sort of thing that the Iowa caucuses try to accomplish in terms of informing and persuading.

    As for general voting, the Oregon system sits head and shoulders above any other in terms of economy, accuracy, and opportunity. It seems ludicrous to me to hear people whining about how we need to improve the technology of our touchscreens or whatever when the whole concept of going to a polling place is ridiculous.

    No, I’m not from Oregon. But I know a good idea when I see it.

  • At the expense of American Exceptionalism, how do other Western-style Democracies select candidates and office holders? Also, if voters in other states really wanted to send a message about this they could overwhelmingly vote against the winners in Iowa and New Hampshire.

  • doubtful, i completely agree re the voting window. it is astounding that general election day isn’t at least a holiday (although in Iowa there is a significant statutory “time off” employers are required to give workers to go vote – but it would not have been enough in 2004 Ohio), or a weekend, or a week long, or by mail.

  • How can we get this fixed? Does anyone know? I am so glad I never knew about this before. This horrifies me.

  • Marc,

    At the expense of American Exceptionalism, how do other Western-style Democracies select candidates and office holders

    Many, if not most, are parlimentary democracies, so there is no direct election of the highest level positions. Voters vote for their local representative. The party with the most local representatives gets to “form” a government: the party powers-that-be choose their prime minister and other ministers.

    If I’ve mistated any of this, I rest assured that someone here will correct me.

    Also, thank you Zeitgeist and Mr. Carpetbagger for all the incredibly informative posts. Personally, I think every state can pick their delegates how they want to. I just want the order of the states to be based on how close the previous general election was; I think the “purple” states should get the early (and thus most influential) say.

  • American politics, my god how did we ever make it 200+ years.

    I may not be from Iowa, but I am from the Midwest and I have lived on both coasts and now Houston, and I know there is not a larger misrepresentation of Americana then Iowa.

    To me if Iowa has to be the one, maybe they could share it with a more populated state. I have always thought a state that has almost a north(country) and south(city) quality, like California, New York, Illinois, or even Florida would be far more representative. Iowas just misses Big City representation.

    Either way I am starting to warm up to the town hall aura of the Iowa caucus. It’s seems very antiquated, yet somehow it’s growing on me.

    Last note, will someone PLEASE put Katy Couric out of my misery. She is killing me with the vote business, and at 8:11 pm CST She has already called Obama and Huckabee ‘winners’.

  • Many, if not most, are parlimentary democracies, so there is no direct election of the highest level positions. Voters vote for their local representative. The party with the most local representatives gets to “form” a government:

    Sounds like a caucus system! 🙂

    And Scott, you may be the first person I’ve ever known to suggest California is representative of America. (Even the Californians I know would take offense – they like to think they are way ahead of the rest of the country.)

    And to all, thanks for reading my long, long posts, your kind words even when disagreeing on substance, and all of the thoughtful exchanges on my guest thread. This is one great community.

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