Guest Post by Zeitgeist
[Editor’s Note: With Caucus Day finally here, and after having a few uncharitable thoughts about the process in Iowa yesterday, Carpetbagger regular Zeitgeist offered to share some valuable insights on the caucuses in this very helpful post. Zeitgeist is, by the way, a real, live Iowan. -CB]
In the past few days there have been a lot of questions, including several to me, about various aspects of the Iowa caucuses: how do they work, is there a basis for John Edwards’ “rural strategy,” when will we know results – and of course a lot of discussion about what they will mean and whether they are entirely “too silly”.
With caucus day now upon us, and apologizing in advance for the length of these posts, I want to do three things: (1) provide a little explanation of what will be happening in Iowa tonight; (2) match that up with some strategic issues (in particular the rural strategy issue); and (3) defend, at least a little, the caucus concept generally (for this post I will stay away from Iowa specifically, or the question of staggered delegate selection versus a same-day national process.)
How the Caucus Works
One bit of background on Iowa that helps. While Iowa is now much less agrarian than it once was, it was once all about small family farms, and the proper scale of almost anything was determined by how long it took to get there/do that and get back home by horse and buggy. While those days are gone, there remains a nostalgic (and, for small rural towns, survivalistic) attachment to the “ma and pa” scale of operations. As a result, Iowa, despite its moderate size, has 99 counties, 150 telephone companies, 350 school districts, and of interest for elections, over 1,700 precincts.
While Iowa’s precinct caucuses may be “first in the nation,” here is a little secret I shouldn’t share because it will only give those opposed to the Iowa caucuses more to aim at: Iowa does not have the first delegate selection date. Iowa’s 57 delegates will be chosen in part on April 26, and in part on June 14. Indeed, tonight’s caucuses do not even elect any of these national convention delegates; the precinct caucuses elect delegates to the district conventions, where national delegates are chosen.
But I get ahead of myself. What matters for now is what does happen tonight.
There are basically two frameworks for selecting delegates to the Democratic National Convention. There are forms of primary elections, which operate much like the general election with some type of ballot. And there are caucuses, which are more like a town hall meeting. In some ways both – because the vote ends up ultimately reduced to a relatively small number of Convention delegates – are part of a proportional representation system. This is, however, much more obvious in a caucus system, particularly a multi-step system like Iowa. It is important to view tonight’s caucus as a step in this proportional and representative system (it is not intended to be direct democracy, and as I discuss later, this is not unique to Iowa – even primary states are generally not truly direct democracy.)
In over 1700 small, neighborhood-sized precincts across Iowa, around 170,000 Iowans over age 17 years and 2 months will go to Democratic precinct caucuses. There they will conduct three kinds of business. The best known, of course, is express a Presidential preference. But they will also (a) propose, and advance or decline, planks for the party platform; and (b) select local party officers and committee members – they will fill the party infrastructure from the ground up.
With regard to the Presidential preferences, ignore the horror stories about “70 page manuals.” Those include all of the other business, and information relevant only to party officials (like the rules for district and state conventions). The Presidential part of the caucus is really no more complicated than, say, doing the Time Warp – its just a jump to the preference group on your left, and if that candidate doesn’t have 15% of the votes in the room, its just a step to the right to show your second choice. (Putting your hands on your hips is entirely optional –although props and food, generally cookies, are routine.)
The caucus begins at 6:30; people have until 7:00 to sign in to be eligible. At 7:00, or the conclusion of a bunch of messages from Iowa elected officials and party leaders, whichever is later, those in attendance form groups who favor a given candidate. Obama supporters may gather in one corner, Clinton supporters in another, etc. This process is open for 30 minutes; it is often kicked off with speeches from a representative of each candidate group. Any group with less than 15% of those in attendance is “non viable” and people in those groups (plus any “uncommitted” group) have the option of expressing a second choice, that is, joining another group. These people tend to get courted extensively and often ask, and get answered, numerous questions about other candidates.
Once this is done, the district convention delegates allotted to that precinct are divided according to the percentages each candidate represents: if a precinct gets 10 district convention delegates, and Obama, Clinton and Edwards each have 28% and Biden has 16%, the top three candidates each get 3 delegates and Biden gets 1. Their respective groups then choose among themselves which 3 people will represent Obama, for example, at district convention.
That is a long background to get us to the two things most non-Iowan political junkies really want to know:
What exactly is it that the media reports?
When the media reports percentages that look like any other election result, what they are really telling you is, of all of the district convention delegates selected, what percentage were committed to a given candidate (i.e. if Clinton is shown with 30%, that means that 30% of those representatives going on to district convention were sent there by caucusers who identified with Clinton.)
When will we know anything?
The earliest preference groups are allowed to form is 7:00; that process must allow 30 minutes, and then “realignment” (in precincts with more than one delegate) must be allowed. Realistically, by the time delegates are apportioned and precinct chairs call the state party’s central reporting desk, it will be 8:00. Most local media appears to be switching to caucus coverage around 9:00 central time.
Post Script: Alas, I had more work than planned last night and it messed up my schedule, which is why I comment on Steve’s blog rather than maintaining one of my own. I will try to put Parts II and III in the comments thread throughout the day, but since this is the factual background and the other two parts are just my opinion which you all get plenty of, this is the more important part to get posted. Besides, if my favored candidate doesn’t prevail, I may change my mind before Part III’s defense of the caucus.