The Bush administration assembled a new National Intelligence Estimate focused exclusively on Iran, but Dick Cheney has been working behind the scenes to keep the information secret. Now we know why.
A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb.
The conclusions of the new assessment are likely to be major factor in the tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program, and they come in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed.
The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate that represents the consensus view of all 16 American spy agencies, states that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.”
“Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige, and goals for regional influence in other ways might — if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible — prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program,” the estimate states.
Let’s not lose sight of the context of this news. The President has, on more than one recent occasion, talked about “World War III” with Iran. The Vice President has been dusting off his 2002 speeches, blustering that the U.S. “cannot stand by as a terror-supporting state fulfills its grandest ambitions.” The man responsible for shaping Rudy Giuliani’s foreign policy vision believes anyone opposed to immediate miltary strikes in Iran are guilty of “an irresponsible complacency that I think is comparable to the denial in the early ’30s of the intentions of Hitler.”
But, once again, they’re all wrong.
Kevin Drum highlights the key excerpt from the newly-released document:
We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.
….We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years….We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007….Tehrans [sic] decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.
If Iran were to restart its program — and there’s no evidence to suggest it’s going to — it wouldn’t have a weapon, at the earliest, until 2010-2015.
This is, in other words, a very sad day for the White House, Joe Lieberman, the staff of the Weekly Standard, and Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign, but a very good day for the rest of us. I realize we’re dealing with a crowd that makes its own reality, but it’s going to be pretty tough to characterize Iran as an imminent threat anytime soon.
As for the Bush gang’s reaction to all of this, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley did his best to spin the news, telling reporters the NIE “confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons.”
Um, Steve? Can I call you “Steve”? While your boss was trying to scare the nation into what he labeled “World War III,” the reality is Iran halted its nuclear weapons program more than four years ago. Phrases like “we were right” probably aren’t prudent right now.
Post Script: Amanda emphasized an important point from a recent IPS report: “A National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran has been held up for more than a year in an effort to force the intelligence community to remove dissenting judgments on the Iranian nuclear programme, and thus make the document more supportive of U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney’s militarily aggressive policy toward Iran.”
Second Post Script: Maybe the neocons will try to push for a war anyway, based on Iranian meddling in Iraq? Apparently, that’s no longer on the list of Bush administration talking points, either.