There are a handful of interesting new polls out this morning, most of which show Americans’ thoroughly unsatisfied with the status quo when it comes to Iraq. Perhaps the most interesting new survey isn’t the one that gauges public opinion in the U.S., but rather, in Iraq.
Barely a quarter of Iraqis say their security has improved in the past six months, a negative assessment of the surge in U.S. forces that reflects worsening public attitudes across a range of measures, even as authorities report some progress curtailing violence.
Apart from a few scattered gains, a new national survey by ABC News, the BBC and the Japanese broadcaster NHK finds deepening dissatisfaction with conditions in Iraq, lower ratings for the national government and growing rejection of the U.S. role there.
More Iraqis say security in their local area has gotten worse in the last six months than say it’s gotten better, 31 percent to 24 percent, with the rest reporting no change. Far more, six in 10, say security in the country overall has worsened since the surge began, while just one in 10 sees improvement.
More directly assessing the surge itself — a measure that necessarily includes views of the United States, which are highly negative — 65 to 70 percent of Iraqis say it’s worsened rather than improved security, political stability and the pace of redevelopment alike.
Iraqis have been watching Bush’s latest policy play out up close, and they’re decidedly unimpressed. Indeed, the poll shows Iraqis discouraged about almost everything around them — safety, job opportunities, access to electricity and fuel, medical services, among other problems all surfaced in a survey that shows an extremely discouraged population.
Worse, whereas there was some optimism in other Iraqi polls last year that conditions might improve, now Iraqis do not have much hope left.
The big picture remains bleak. Six in 10 Iraqis say their own lives are going badly, and even more, 78 percent, say things are going badly for the country overall — up 13 points from last winter. Expectations have crumbled; just 23 percent see improvement for Iraq in the year ahead, down from 40 percent last winter and 69 percent in November 2005.
And what of Iraqis’ views of the U.S. mission? The ABC/BBC/NHK poll showed a population that apparently wants us to leave.
[N]early two-thirds of Iraqis now say it was wrong for the United States and its allies to have invaded Iraq — 63 percent, up from 52 percent six months ago and from 39 percent in the first Iraq poll by ABC, the BBC and NHK (and the German broadcaster ARD) in February 2004.
Even among Shiites, empowered by the overthrow of Saddam, 51 percent now say the invasion was wrong, up sharply from 29 percent in March. (Further deterioration may be ahead; among Shiites who still support the invasion, the number who call it “absolutely” right has fallen from 34 percent in March to 14 percent now.) Only among the largely autonomous Kurds does a majority still support the invasion, and even their support, 71 percent, is down by 12 points.
Seventy-nine percent of Iraqis oppose the presence of coalition forces in the country, essentially unchanged from last winter — including more than eight in 10 Shiites and nearly all Sunni Arabs. (Seven in 10 Kurds, by contrast, still support the presence of these forces.)
Similarly, 80 percent of Iraqis disapprove of the way U.S. and other coalition forces have performed in Iraq; the only change has been an increase in negative ratings of the U.S. performance among Kurds. And 86 percent of Iraqis express little or no confidence in U.S. and U.K. forces, similar to last winter and again up among Kurds.
Accusations of mistreatment continue: Forty-one percent of Iraqis in this poll (vs. 44 percent in March) report unnecessary violence against Iraqi citizens by U.S. or coalition forces. That peaks at 63 percent among Sunni Arabs, and 66 percent in Sunni-dominated Anbar.
This disapproval rises to an endorsement of violence: Fifty-seven percent of Iraqis now call attacks on coalition forces “acceptable,” up six points from last winter and more than three times its level (17 percent) in February 2004. Since March, acceptability of such attacks has risen by 15 points among Shiites (from 35 percent to 50 percent), while remaining near-unanimous among Sunnis (93 percent).
Specifically on the question of U.S. withdrawal, there’s still apparently some trepidation about what might happen after we’re gone, but a plurality of 47% now say the United States and other coalition forces should leave Iraq immediately. That number has risen from 26% in November 2005 and 35% last winter. It is also the first time support for our withdrawal has reached a plurality of Iraqis. ABC’s report added:
Desire for the United States to “leave now” is highest in Anbar, still deeply anti-American despite any accommodation its leaders have made with the U.S. military.
We’re in a country that does not support our efforts. Something else for policy makers to consider moving forward.