Because the president’s popularity (or lack thereof) is linked so closely to the midterm elections, it’s probably worth taking a moment to consider whether Bush is currently on the upswing. Greg Sargent has seen the reports indicating that the president’s national support is “rising,” and that “the real beneficiary of that could be House Republicans,” and looks at the numbers.
* The last five Rasmussen daily polls have shown Bush declining from 47% on Sept. 14 to 40% yesterday. That’s a seven point drop in five days.
* A Harris poll released on Sept. 15 showed Bush’s approval rating at 38%, up four points from the last one. But Bush’s numbers are still lower than they were in Harris’ polls in January and February of this year, when they were 43% and 40% respectively. Harris shows that Bush has been fluctuating back and fourth under 40% since then — and still hasn’t cracked 40%, even though his numbers are now “rising.”
* A Fox poll from Sept. 14 shows Bush’s approval at 40%. That’s up from August and July, but still down from June, when he was at 41%, and down by more since February’s 44%. Again, the long view shows more fluctuating under 40%, with occasional brushes with the 40% mark.
* A Wall Street Journal poll from Sept. 14 showed Bush’s approval at 42%. That is up from other numbers in 2006.
* A Gallup poll from Sept. 12 found Bush at 39% — down from late August’s 42% and two points better than early August’s 37%. More fluctuations just above or below 40%.
Looking back over the last month to six weeks, it looks as if the president may indeed have seen a slight up-tick — a couple of points, thanks in large part to shoring some of his base — but it’s hardly anything to write home about. Bush’s approval stands at about 40%, give or take a few. Anyone saying Bush is enjoying a surge in popularity is overstating the case. A lot.
Of course, that’s the short-term take. Taking a broader view, the trend is unmistakable.
Media Matters’ Eric Boehlert noted this week that the “pervasive buyer’s remorse that hovers around President Bush’s second term, as measured by public opinion polls,” has become the elephant in the room.
The issue of buyer’s remorse is directly connected to a larger, twofold problem surrounding the ongoing coverage of Bush’s polling numbers. First, there’s developed a pervasive press obsession with trying to be the first to document Bush’s rebound in the polls. (It stands in stark contrast to the press conduct during President Clinton’s second term when reporters and pundits were forever hunting, unsuccessfully, for evidence that Clinton’s popularity was slipping.)
Secondly, and just as disturbing, is the categorical refusal by the press to put Bush’s consistently dreadful poll numbers into any kind of historical context. The fact that Bush has been bogged down for much of this year with poll numbers in the 30’s is nothing short of astonishing. In the last half-century, the only other comparable second-term collapse belonged to Richard Nixon, whose fall, of course, was fueled by the revelation that a criminal enterprise had been operating from inside the Oval Office. Yet Bush’s second-term performance is rarely mentioned in the same breath as Nixon’s.
Quite the contrary, despite historic dissatisfaction with Bush, the press continues to depict him as the central, charging force in American politics, while setting aside all sorts of time and energy trying to document Bush’s (we’re told) inevitable rebound.
The reality is, Bush is one of the least-liked presidents since the advent of modern polling. Minor fluctuations from the high 30s to the low 40s may help news outlets justify expensive polling efforts, but it doesn’t change the president’s general standing with the public.