The New York Times’ Anne Kornblut had a provocative piece over the weekend, noting Tom DeLay’s extensive network that has kept him afloat during times of crisis. The descriptions of DeLay’s system of patronage was helpful, but I wonder if Kornblut’s central point is off-base.
Politicians are not always the most courageous lot. The first whiff of scandal, the first taint of defeat, usually makes them run – hence the popular saying that if you want a friend in this town, get a dog.
But Republicans in the House have not run from Tom DeLay, who, like Bill Clinton before him, has defied political gravity in recent months. Three of his former aides have been indicted in an investigation of campaign fund-raising practices; a close lobbyist friend is under criminal investigation; the House ethics committee is preparing to reconsider allegations that Mr. DeLay and his staff members violated travel rules.
Rather than try to protect themselves and engineer a coup, Republican members are throwing a tribute party for him this week. President Bush is also standing firm, even taking him along on Air Force One. Raising a simple question: Why?
Actually, it raised a different simple question for me: Really?
Kornblut is right that the wave of crises hasn’t been enough to sink DeLay. She’s also right that DeLay has worked hard to generate a great deal of loyalty from his GOP colleagues. But where I differ from her is the sense of timing. Kornblut sees DeLay surviving and notes, “Wow, DeLay is managing to hang in there.” I see the same circumstances and say, “It’s only a matter of time before DeLay is thrown overboard.”
In a broader context, is DeLay really standing tall right now? Two House Republicans have already started talking about his resignation, reporters are hunting him through the halls of Congress, the White House is parsing the word “friendship” when describing the president’s relationship with DeLay, there’s widespread speculation about who will succeed him as Majority Leader, and even much of the conservative press is abandoning him. The Post’s John Harris and Mike Allen described today as “a politician in retreat.”
Indeed, in yesterday’s NYT, Rep. Chris Shays, the moderate Connecticut Republican, said:
“The Republican Party does seem lost. The party of Abraham Lincoln is in danger of becoming the party of the church…. The problem with Tom DeLay is that he does everything to the extreme. He has consistently pushed his ethical behavior to the edge, and sometimes he goes over the edge. There will always be more stories about Tom. This is the way he conducts business. With regard to those trips, he is aware of far more than he has said publicly.”
Is DeLay “defying political gravity”? Maybe for now, but it seems inevitable that he’ll come crashing down in the not-too-distant future.