Is McCain done?

Just two short months ago, the WaPo’s Chris Cillizza reported on John McCain’s “inner circle,” the “core” group of advisors who shape the senator’s campaign. At the top of the list were campaign manager Terry Nelson, strategist John Weaver, and longtime advisor Mark Salter.

As of this afternoon, all three are gone. As are deputy campaign manager Reed Galen and political director Rob Jesmer, both of whom also resigned today.

I’ve heard about top-tier presidential campaigns reshuffling some staffers during rough patches, but never anything quite like this.

Marc Ambinder has an interesting account of the behind-the-scenes wrangling that led to today’s defenestration, but I think Cillizza alludes to a key point.

Seeking to avoid being cast as the Republican outsider — a label that he believed cost him the GOP nomination in 2000 — McCain (and Weaver) spent much of 2006 recruiting key cogs in the presidential campaign of George W. Bush. Nelson, who was Bush’s political director in 2004, was seen as the crown jewel in that recruitment effort, a member of the Bush inner circle who was widely regarded as a strategist on the rise.

As more and more elements of the Bush campaign were added to McCain’s operations — especially on the fundraising side — several members of the 2000 McCain Inner Circle left the campaign. Craig Goldman, who served as executive director of McCain’s Straight Talk America PAC in the run-up to the presidential race, was the first and was followed by longtime McCain finance consultant Carla Eudy who was dismissed from the campaign following McCain’s disappointing first fundraising quarter.

Those who remained cast the departures as typical growing pains in a frontrunning campaign. But, as the campaign began to lose momentum the fissures within McCain’s world widened and it became clear they were slowing the campaign down.

One wonders what would have happened if McCain hadn’t been so desperate to repackage himself as a Bush-like insider. Maybe his loyal team that had been with him for years could have had him in a competitive position.

At this point, I suppose it’s still possible for McCain to come back, but it’s hard to see how. Greg Sargent notes the new head of the campaign, and describes the situation this way:

Rick Davis, a longtime member of John McCain’s inner circle, has been tapped to run McCain’s campaign in the wake of the resignations of two of his top aides, two McCain sources tell the Politico’s Jonathan Martin.

Davis, as it happens, managed McCain’s campaign back in 2000. So it’s easy to interpret his appointment today as born of a desire to return to that hallowed time — a time when McCain was a maverick for the first time; when he was the insurgent candidate whose Straight Talk Express was revered and not ridiculed by the press; when the Iraq War was merely a gleam in Dick Cheney’s eye. Nothing can turn back this clock, though.

I completely agree. If you’re a wealthy Republican donor, betting on a candidate, are you going to invest in McCain’s campaign right now? I don’t think so.

The question now is how long until McCain calls it quits. My money is on October (after Q3 fundraising reports). How about you?

I don’t know if he can wait that long – if he’s not doing well raising money now, and he’s bleeding staff, I wonder if he can maintain the charade until the end of September. Might be a quiet Friday afternoon of Labor Day weekend announcement.

Then the questions are, who gets his support, and who wants it?

  • He can probably keep it up through September. I expect his campaign will sort of go into suspended animation until then, and hey, it’s not like, say, Dennis Kucinich is doing anything more than showing up for debates. But unless he raises serious cash in Q3 — and he won’t — he’ll be done after that.

  • Nelson, who was Bush’s political director in 2004, was seen as the crown jewel in that recruitment effort, a member of the Bush inner circle who was widely regarded as a strategist on the rise.

    Anyone know if Nelson is one of the people who joined team Thompson? Hopefully not. Hopefully he joined Brownback or Paul or Tancredo.

  • Anne said: who wants it?

    Only a candidate who is a stern and vocal cheerleader for progress in Iraq, despite any evidence for it… a candidate who campaigns as a moderate, but is a right-wing nutjob… a candidate who has sold out all his principles for power…

    Hey, is Lieberman a R candidate?

  • Looks like Katherine Harris’ campaign has been reincarnated. Anybody got a spare possum?

  • gg – you funny. Truth is, Lieberman is probably beside himself, as McCain was his big chance at being on a “Unity” ticket.

    For my money, McCain and Lieberman can both exit stage right any time.

  • Ironically, if McCain had not abandoned his 2000 stands he’d have something to run on now. As it is, he has only his suspect status as the Born Again supporter of a failed President and his charisma. We can all see how well that’s working out.

    He can reshuffle his diminishing staff all he wants; the Hindenmccain is already in flames over Arizona.

  • The announcement may come in Oct. but he’s already done with. It’s just a question of how long it takes his ego to deflate. Finance be damned McCain quit talking reality and started talking points saying not what he thought but what he thought he was supposed to think. The man is now exposed and really shouldn’t even be in the Senate. Time he should retire.

  • I could never understand how McCain deliberately embraced Bush and his policies so closely with other Republicans fleeing the sight of Bush.

  • “Seeking to avoid being cast as the Republican outsider — a label that he believed cost him the GOP nomination in 2000…”

    Nothing “cost him” the nomination in 2000. The fight was fixed from the word “go.” Nobody but Bush ever had a chance. Not a chance. The whole shit was rigged with obscene amounts of unstopable money.

    McCrazy knew this too. When the Straight Talk Express stopped in Burlington in 2000, McLame talked about his impossible odds. “Things are always darkest just before they’re totally black.” McCooCoo quipped.

    He knew. Everybody knew. I voted for him just to slow down the Texacutioning Cokehead, and hey- he won the VT primary, but it was nothing but a bump in the road for Bush2 the Evil.

    McCain is Done. He’s always been done. When will he make it official and drop out? When it makes the most sense financially. Pretty soon..

  • It’s like the Republican presidential nomination is the the cure for a million dollar a month Drug habit.

    And John McCaine has substance abuse problem.

    And as a longtime resident of Arizona – I really hope he wants it so badly that he quits the Senate. Janet Napolitano can appoint a Democrat and Harry Reid can tell the ur-Republican Senator from CT to get lost.

  • A strong advocate for the War and now his run is lost. I am sure other Republican senators can understand the language of politics pretty clearly.

  • I truly believe that, had McCain remained a maverick, he would have won the GOP nomination and likely the Presidency. Republicans are terrified of losing the White House; they would have held their nose and supported a winner (and insurance against future indictments). And, until McCain became Bush/Falwell Lite, he WAS a winner, beating Hillary and all Democratic contenders in every poll. Independents and many Democrats respected him.

    I wish that McCain would have been the man he pretended to be in 2000 – a straight talking, independently minded war hero. Since he’s not that man, I take delight in his political destruction.

  • McCain made a mistake when he chose to hook himself up with the Bush administration, both in the war and in illegal alien amnesty. He drew the wrong lessons from his loss in 2000 and tied himself to Bush. If he’d remained a maverick, he might have withstood the drop in popularity by Bush.

    A victim of a political miscalculation. His own.

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    (That is a fork incase you cannot tell)

  • “It’s just a question of how long it takes his ego to deflate.”
    I agree, so I’m voting for right after New Hampshire.

    Now if someone could just persuade Cheney to run to protect the Cheney-Bush legacy, we could put up the GOP headstone already.

  • Is McCain done?

    I hope not.
    Of all the repugs… I enjoy slapping him around most of all.

  • If McCain were a Buddhist monk, he’d dowse himself in gasoline and strike a match. Since he’s not, McCain immolates himself in the ignorant support of a vastly unpopular war.

    John, this is the Voice of America: it’s time to trade in the Straight-Talk Express for a Strafed-Talk wheelbarrow and roll yourself back to Arizona where the vast minority of your supporters probably still exist.

  • Poor John McCain. There’s just such a thing as wanting to be president too much.

  • Losing Weaver and Salter is BIG. Those guys have been with him forever. It’s hard to imagine John McCain without them.

    In 2000 he thought that repudiating Bush would get him the nomination. In 2008 he decided that reversing course and allying with Bush would do the trick. Surprise, surprise: neither worked.

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