Last year, the DNC was not at all pleased when Michigan blew off the agreed-upon rules and moved its presidential primary to January 15. As part of its drive to maintain the integrity of its calendar, the DNC punished the state by stripping it of its delegates.
In keeping with their commitment to play by the rules, John Edwards and Barack Obama had their names removed from the Michigan ballot, rendering the contest effectively meaningless. Hillary Clinton, for reasons that are unclear, kept her name on the ballot, but she did not campaign or advertise in the state.
Given all of this, the results of the Democratic primary in Michigan just don’t tell us much. Clinton won easily, but she wasn’t trying, and her toughest competition came from “uncommitted.” (Edwards and Obama supporters couldn’t even write in their names if they wanted to.) While Republicans were battling it out in a competitive contest, Dems in the state weren’t even encouraged to turn out. As primaries go, this one simply didn’t matter.
Or did it? Tom Edsall noted some interesting results from Michigan exit polls.
Among black voters, Clinton was crushed by “uncommitted,” 26-70. If that kind of margin among African Americans continues into future primaries, she faces major problems in the heavily black January 26 South Carolina primary and in the states with large black populations going to the polls on February 5 — so-called Tsunami Tuesday. Clinton carried whites in Michigan by a 61-30.
Clinton ran poorly among young voters of all races, losing those under the age of 30 by 39-48 percent; splitting voters from 30 to 44 by 46-48 percent; solidly carrying the 45 to 56 age group by 54-34 percent; and winning voters 60 and older by a landslide 67-31 percent.
Given that Clinton was the only credible candidate on the ballot, these probably weren’t the results the campaign was hoping for.
To be sure, it’s best not to over-interpret exit polls in a race in which Dems weren’t even encouraged to participate. For that matter, the news for Clinton wasn’t all bad.
In a warning signal if she becomes the Democratic nominee, Clinton did much better among committed Democrats, winning them 57-37, than among independents, losing them 32-51.
Looking toward the future, the Michigan exit poll demonstrates the viability of the Clinton campaign strategy of winning solid majorities in states that, unlike Michigan and South Carolina, do not allow participation of either Republicans or independents in their “closed” primaries, like the February 5 contests in New York, Connecticut, Colorado and Arizona. Many very large February 5 states, however, including California, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, have open primaries that will give Obama a chance to pull in independent voters.
But I’m a little surprised anyway. I didn’t expect much of anyone to turn out for this contest, and it appears that the anti-Clinton sentiment was strong enough to propel “uncommitted” to a strong second place showing, with 40%.
Maybe this was a meaningless blip on the political radar, maybe not. Time will tell.