It can get worse

July 19, 2006

Milestones and turning points come and go in Iraq, but conditions keep deteriorating.

An average of more than 100 civilians per day were killed in Iraq last month, the United Nations reported Tuesday, registering what appears to be the highest official monthly tally of violent deaths since the fall of Baghdad.

The death toll, drawn from Iraqi government agencies, was the most precise measurement of civilian deaths provided by any government organization since the invasion and represented a substantial increase over the figures in daily news media reports. […]

United Nations officials said Tuesday that the number of violent deaths had climbed steadily since at least last summer. During the first six months of this year, the civilian death toll jumped more than 77 percent, from 1,778 in January to 3,149 in June, the organization said.

This sharp upward trend reflected the dire security situation in Iraq as sectarian violence has worsened and Iraqi and American government forces have been unable to stop it.

In all, more than 14,000 civilians have been killed in Iraq in the first six months of 2006 of this year, according to the U.N. report, which also noted the fact that “killings, kidnappings and torture remain widespread.”

And how do Bush administration officials respond to these recent events?

Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, who met with Iraq’s oil and electricity ministers in Baghdad, had “a rosy view” of progress since his last visit.

“The situation seems far more stable than when I was here two or three years ago,” he said in an interview in the fortified Green Zone. “The security seems better, people are more relaxed. There is an optimism, at least among the people I talked to.”

For that matter, Tony Snow wants the media to note the progress of bringing four hours of electricity a day to Baghdad, and Condoleezza Rice has cleverly created a narrative in which ongoing instability and violence in Iraq is “necessarily a sign of progress.”

The elections meant conditions would improve. The completion of the cabinet meant conditions would improve. Zarqawi’s death meant conditions would improve. Conditions aren’t improving.

Do you think these people actually believe the stuff they say? On a completely different subject Rove is coming to stillwater MN on friday to help raise money for Michelle Bachman. I hope there is some kind of rally against him.

  • “There are some who, uh, feel like that, you know, the conditions are such that they can attack us there. My answer is: Bring ’em on. We got the force necessary to deal with the security situation. “ – George W. Bush, July 2, 2003.

    “All that we have to do is to send two mujahedin to the furthest point East to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaeda, in order to make the generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses without their achieving for it anything of note other than some benefits for their private companies.” -Osama bin Laden, October 30, 2004.

    Looks to me like Iraq is going according to plan.

    The question, of course, is…. whose plan?

  • Kathy–

    Mr. Bodman was talking to the six-foot tall bunny rabbit who accompanied him on his trip.

  • The elections meant conditions would improve. The completion of the cabinet meant conditions would improve. Zarqawi’s death meant conditions would improve. Conditions aren’t improving.

    Going back even farther, the killings of Saddam’s brothers meant things would improve. Same with the capture of Saddam. Same with the trial of Saddam. I’ll jump the gun and say that Saddam’s inevitable conviction will mean more of the same.

    The unfulfilled promises of each and every ‘milestone’ have been further steps into the abyss. The word quagmire hardly seems appropriate by this point. The more appropriate term starts with cluster and rhymes with duck.

  • “The security SEEMS better, people are more relaxed. There is an optimism, AT LEAST AMONG THE PEOPLE I TALKED TO.”

    So the situation is sort of getting better, maybe..

    Freedom appears to be on the march, I think.

    Hopefully, we’ll have the number of Iraqi civilians killed each day to less than a hundred, God willing and the river don’t rise

    See, we’re almost making progress, somewhat.

  • “Hopefully, we’ll have the number of Iraqi civilians killed each day to less than a hundred, God willing and the river don’t rise” – 2Manchu

    About five months ago now, George Will said that the DoD’s plan to handle Iraq was to get the American deaths down to three a day, then three a week, then three a month, at which point people would start accepting that we had things relatively under control.

    You don’t hear that from him any more. Maybe because a week’s worth of names and faces on This Week is still 15 to 20.

    Things aren’t getting better by any metric the Bushites suggest.

  • Rice’s comment is one of the great Catch-22 moments of the whole damned thing.

    If the violence was declining, that means the plan is working and we’re seeing progress. If the violence is increasing, that means people are upset that the plan is working and wish to disrupt it, which of course means it’s working.

  • Don’t mean to be alarmist, but in keeping with the “it could get worse” theme, how’s this from Forbes…

    Turkey Signals It’s Prepared to Enter Iraq

    Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there – a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.

    Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week.

    http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2006/07/18/ap2887214.html

  • “The elections meant conditions would improve. The completion of the cabinet meant conditions would improve. Zarqawi’s death meant conditions would improve”
    But Rice’s approach is the best: the fact that conditions are getting worse means that conditions will improve. Just wait until civilian deaths hit 1000 a day, then we’ll really know that things are going to be great!

  • Or this…

    Congressman Gil Gutknecht found the situation in Iraq more bleak than he anticipated during a weekend visit to the war zone, and said a partial withdrawal of some American troops might be wise.

    His assessment of the problems facing Iraq and the potential value of removing some American troops comes one month after Gutknecht was widely quoted during a debate in the House about the war.

    “Members, now is not the time to go wobbly,” Gutknecht said on June 15. “Let’s give victory a chance.”

    http://www.mankatofreepress.com/local/local_story_200013136.html/resources_printstory

  • Four hours of electricity doesn’t do much good when young men can’t even get four hours of employment. Any time they show up for work, along comes a bomber and KABOOM.

    Hows about that for improving conditions, eh George?

  • I’m sure any day now all the Rethugs who said nasty things about Dr. Dean will apologize and admit he was in fact correct when he said Saddam’s capture did not America any safer.

    I’m also sure I’ll win PowerBall this week and that Jim Morrison is still alive and hiding in France.

  • Bill Maher said on his HBO show that “Saddam Hussein is a viable option”. It’s not funny any more.

  • This mentality reminds me of the Viet Nam-era expression that villages had be destroyed to be saved. I guess Iraqis only achieve freedom when they’re killed.

    Bodman’s right. A corpse is stable for all eternity.

  • Zeitgeist,

    You’re mistaken. It’s Elvis that’s hiding in France. Jim Morrison has been hiding out in my basement for 3 months now.

  • ***Condoleezza Rice has cleverly created a narrative in which ongoing instability and violence in Iraq is “necessarily a sign of progress.”***

    So…this would suggest that more “instability and violence” equals “more progress”…yes? Would instability and violence in the streets of Washington DC signal that the federal government is “experiencing progress?” Did the planes that messed up WTC towers 1 and 2 “represent progress?” Does this “Ninnyhammer of State” even think before she opens her mouth—or does she just quaff the Kool-Aid and “go for the gusto?”

  • I suppose it is much like anything that the United States does. If we decide we want to do it, and put all of our effort, energy, and resources toward the goal we are generally successful. I think the fact that we can’t get behind this (for whatever the reason) dooms us to failure. It happened in Vietnam, and it is happening in Iraq, and Afghanistan.

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