It was more of an implicit strategy than an explicit one, but holding September out as the key moment for Iraq analysis was a way for Republicans to push off their short-term problems. Dems wanted a withdrawal timeline now. By insisting that policy makers wait until Gen. David Petraeus reports on Iraq’s progress in September, the GOP bought itself four months.
In retrospect, they didn’t think this through. Dems ended up backpedaling on withdrawal in the short term, but the result was increased expectations for September. All of a sudden, the early fall assessment of the surge policy and conditions in Iraq became make-or-break for the administration. If Bush’s policy is going to succeed, we’d know for sure in four months.
Now that everyone realizes that September will not show any real progress, the trick for the administration is figuring out how to lower expectations — and redefine “success.”
U.S. military leaders in Iraq are increasingly convinced that most of the broad political goals President Bush laid out early this year in his announcement of a troop buildup will not be met this summer and are seeking ways to redefine success.
In September, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, is scheduled to present Congress with an assessment of progress in Iraq. Military officers in Baghdad and outside advisors working with Petraeus doubt that the three major goals set by U.S. officials for the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki will be achieved by then.
Enactment of a new law to share Iraq’s oil revenue among Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish regions is the only goal they think might be achieved in time, and even that is considered a long shot. The two other key benchmarks are provincial elections and a deal to allow more Sunni Arabs into government jobs.
With overhauls by the central government stalled and with security in Baghdad still a distant goal, Petraeus’ advisors hope to focus on smaller achievements that they see as signs of progress.
It’s the Midnight Basketball-ization of Iraq policy. The administration can’t tackle the sweeping challenges, so it’s time for some micro initiatives that would give the appearance of progress.
Indeed, when the Bush gang touted all of the achievements we’d see if only we’d give his surge policy a chance, they were — surprise, surprise — blowing smoke. Now we’re hearing that the benchmarks from January were overly ambitious.
Military officers said they understood that any report that key goals had not been met would add to congressional Democrats’ skepticism. But some counterinsurgency advisors to Petraeus have said it was never realistic to expect that Iraqis would reach agreement on some of their most divisive issues after just a few months of the American troop buildup.
How convenient.
Be prepared for a series of almost comical examples of “progress.”