It looks like ‘blue’ skies ahead

November 26, 2007

In light of Congress’ low approval ratings, some have suggested that the wave that washed Republicans out of the congressional majority 12 months ago has already subsided, and both chambers will once again be up for grabs 12 months from now.

CQ’s Bob Benenson and Jonathan Allen took a very thorough look at the landscape and have come to the opposite conclusion.

[E]very traditional indicator of election forecasting — from public opinion polls and issue resonance to candidate recruitment and the “over/under” balance of seats in play — suggests that congressional Democrats have just as much going for them in 2008 as they had in 2006, if not more. They now have the power of incumbency to give them added advantages in raising money, attracting top-tier candidates, controlling the legislative agenda and capturing the political zeitgeist.

All this leads Democrats to profess clear confidence that they’ll retain majority control next fall. And not only that, but they may now harbor realistic visions of emerging with 55 to 58 seats in the Senate (pushing them within arm-twisting distance of the 60 votes needed to bust a filibuster) as well more than 240 seats in the House, a cushion that neither party has enjoyed since the end of the last Democratic era in the House, in 1994. […]

By early March at the latest, Democrats are likely to have a presumed presidential nominee who will enjoy consensus front-runner status going into the general election campaign. That will give them a titular leader for the first time in seven years and the opportunity to unite behind a single party message throughout the remainder of the year.

Republicans, meanwhile, appear destined for a yearlong internecine battle for the heart and soul of the party. Even if they manage to rally behind a single presidential candidate next spring, it is not at all clear that any of the leading candidates for the nomination can count on the loyal and enthusiastic support of evangelical Christians and other social conservatives who have formed the bedrock of the GOP “base” for more than a quarter-century.

A year, obviously, is a long time, especially in politics. But CQ’s analysis is heartening and persuasive. Put it this way, do you think Republicans would want to switch positions with the Dems right now?

Moreover, practically every measurable standard leans in the Dems’ direction — the public supports their agenda, voters trust them on the issues, the party has more money in the bank, the GOP has more open seats and vulnerable incumbents to defend, etc.

But there’s one intangible that seems to help Dems more than anything else.

It isn’t always necessary for a party to enjoy robust popularity among voters to win majorities in Congress. Sometimes, it’s good enough just to not be the other guy.

Even though the public’s “honeymoon” with the congressional Democratic majorities was brief, there is scant evidence that voters are anxious to rush back to the party they so recently dumped. […]

[T]he biggest factor working in the Democrats’ favor continues to be that they are not the Republicans. (emphasis added)

Obviously, that doesn’t mean Dems can coast and expect to be rewarded. They still have a policy agenda, and voters still expect progress.

But it does mean that the smart money is on the Democratic majority getting bigger next year.

Consider this your morale boost for the day.

Love that. More! More!!

  • Sometimes I feel like the Dems are like the Oregon Ducks – capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

  • To me getting rid of all republicans is the most important thing. Not one of them was willing to make a stand against this administration.

  • As this moment, the Republican Party is in shambles! Yet, a one year forecast is at the very least nebulous when it comes to anything political. Planned random events are the ones to watch out for, as they could unleash a ferocious threshold of fear which could tilt the ’08 elections back to the Republicans. Watch, wait, and work to unobfuscate if it comes to that. My Republican party needs to have its political come-uppance given to it in our next election cycle! -Kevo

  • If skies are looking blue, it’s only relative to the gray smog over Republicans and NOT the result of anything Dems have done.

  • Maybe if more Dems are elected we will finally get some actual Democratic leadership, but I’ll bet Nancy and Harry are better at fighting when they’re fighting off progressives in their own party than they are at fighting the royally unpopular Republicans.

    Their only claim to legitimacy is that they’re not Republicans. Wonderful. I look forward to sending money to any progressive who opposes their reign of enabling.

  • Perhaps the Congressional Democrats could afford to take 2 weeks out of their busy schedules for a backbone transplant. Governing is so much easier for vertebrates.

  • “It isn’t always necessary for a party to enjoy robust popularity among voters to win majorities in Congress.”

    But it does take a motivated group of people to put their candidates in power. For as much as the religious and social righties may be disheartened this election cycle resulting in a few of them sitting this one out, those that want change need to get out the vote. This means all of us working to get out progressive (or anti-Republican) voters. 420 days, 5 hours to a brighter future!

  • What happens if the SCOTUS rules one way or the other on the DC handgun ban?

    If the ruling upholds an individual right to bear arms, the GOP can try to ride a wave of “we told you so,” but I doubt that will take them far.

    If the ruling upholds the gun ban, the GOP can whine about stupid “activist” judges, but I doubt that will get them far either, since they already enjoy the most far-right SCOTUS in recent memory.

  • All this leads Democrats to profess clear confidence that they’ll retain majority control next fall. And not only that, but they may now harbor realistic visions of emerging with 55 to 58 seats in the Senate (pushing them within arm-twisting distance of the 60 votes needed to bust a filibuster)

    I think that in reality, the Democrats need 62-64 votes in the Senate before they can have a fillibuster-proof majority. The Democrats seem incapable of the same sort of caucus discipline that the Republicans enjoy. With only 58 votes, it will be a rare moment that the Democrats manage to push the Republicans to allow an “up or down vote” on legislation.

  • The real question is what will politics be like in the U.S. after the Republican Party collapses totally and the U.S. is a one party state. What will the Democratic Primaries be like when all of the former Republicans are voting in them? How will district lines be drawn when there is only one political party? Will the Democrats keep the severe seniority rules in Congress when they are the only party? Which current Democratic blocks will be the winners and losers in a one party state? Will states move their primaries closes to november once the general election becomes a rubber stamp exercise?

  • If the Republican party collapses, maybe other parties will develop in its place and we’ll have a multiparty system like most of Europe. But the likelihood of that happening is equivalent to the Y2K virus shutting down the airlines.

  • Such rosy predictions for the Dems are the equivalent of comfort food to the reality based world that has suffered the thugs, war criminals, liars, incompetent cronies, and torturers of the past seven years, but the advent of a larger Democratic presence won’t undo the damage to our Constitution, our worldwide reputation, our military, Iraq, Afghanistan, and the treasury.

    Nor should anyone be sanguine about what might possibly happen over the next year, all engineered by the neocons to both help retain a Rethug in the presidency, and to commit us to a continuation of the disasterous militarism and foreign policies that have turned the Middle-East into a powder keg on a stove. Past “dirty tricks” will merely be a prelude to what could occur to frighten the quivering American sheeple into submission.

    Whether it is completely obvious or not, there is a political reaignment going on, which may destroy the Rethugs in their current incarnation. But the real problem is the split in the Dems between the Rethuglican-lite of scripted Hillary and the more progressive wing of Edwards, Obama, Feingfold, Kucinich, and Kennedy, Until the Dems actually form a party with a coherent message, one that isn’t Rethug-lite, one that is more populist and less militaristic, the political scene will remain chaotic, and subject to hijacking by the neocons in league with the Kristian fascists.

    Domestic politics needs a real shake-up, and a serious four-way presidential race would do it. The possible participants? The most likely four are Clinton, Guliani, Bloomberg, and Paul. Romney might beat out Guiliani for the nomination. With such a race, and Bloomberg’s money, American politics would never be the same again, regardless of which one of them finally bludgeoned his/her way to a ‘victory’. That victory could easily be decided by the House as none of the four would likely get 271 electoral votes. And that might just spell the end of the Electoral College.

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