It’s kind of funny to look back at last year and realize that Howard Dean did John Kerry an enormous favor last fall by opting out of the public campaign financing system. It may turn out to be of those critical moments that are more important in retrospect than at the time. Indeed, Dean’s decision may have made it possible for Kerry to become president.
From the beginning of the race, Kerry never really wanted to stay in the financing system. It was hard to blame him. With independent wealth, a proven record as a successful fundraiser, and an incumbent who was sure to shatter all money records, Kerry saw little value in holding himself back, even though he enthusiastically supported campaign finance reform laws.
Early on, before Dean caught fire, the Vermonter worried that Kerry’s money could help him capture the nomination. In March 2003, Dean, insisting on the need for an even playing field, said he would raise quite a fuss if any of his rivals (read: Kerry) decided to abandon spending limits and skip public financing.
“It will be a huge issue,” Dean said in March. “I think most Democrats believe in campaign finance reform…. [I’ve] always been committed to this. Campaign finance reform is just something I believe in.”
Then Dean started raising some money, which turned into a lot of money, which turned into frontrunner status. All of a sudden, that campaign financing system didn’t look so attractive to Dean after all.
In November, Dean abandoned his early pledge and left the system. Kerry insisted that if Dean could do it, so could he. I didn’t realize it at the time, but it was probably the best thing that could have happened to Kerry.
Consider what Dean said in November, in justifying his change of heart.
This is how the Bush campaign believes they can defeat us. If we accept federal matching funds — and the $45 million spending cap that goes with it — they will have a $170 million spending advantage against us. From March through August, they will be able to define and distort us, and we will have no way to defend ourselves.
Dean, it turns out, couldn’t have been more right. And now Kerry’s the one who gets to benefit.
As everyone now knows, of course, Dean’s campaign didn’t do well, but thanks to his November decision, Kerry is competing with Bush for the fundraising crown. In fact, he’s doing a darn good job, even having out-raised Bush in the month of March.
Just last week, the Kerry campaign announced that it had reached its $80 million fundraising goal — 3 months early.
“400,000 Americans have powered our campaign to reach the $80 million 2004 goal a full three months early,” says Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill in statement. “It is the John Kerry way, ahead of schedule and under budget.”
With a flush campaign account and no legal restrictions, Kerry can respond to Bush’s attacks and launch his own $25 million ad blitz with those great bio spots everyone’s raving about.
The truth is, none of this could have been possible had Kerry stayed in the public financing system. He wouldn’t have been able to raise as much money, spend as much money, or even come close to keeping up with Bush.
In fact, as Noam Scheiber noted the other day, this was a major drawback in 2000.
[O]ne enormous difference between Kerry’s position now and Gore’s in 2000 is that Gore stayed within the public finance system, meaning he could only spend $9 million between the end of the primaries and the convention.
Kerry obviously learned from Gore’s mistake. It’s a shame that staying in a voluntary campaign finance system leads to a de facto punishment for Dem candidates, but this is the reality.
And, ironically, Kerry has Dean to thank. Who knew?