It’s a shame the article is for subscribers only, but Roll Call had a really interesting item today about the strategery on the Hill surrounding Bush’s Social Security scheme. In particular, the article outlines the next couple of months and challenges some of what we’ve been hearing the past week or so.
Republicans in Congress and the White House say they have nearly finished the first stage of their push to overhaul the Social Security system and will soon begin crafting a bill that could pass both chambers by the end of July.
Indeed, Bush administration officials and senior Republican Congressional staffers said they also are gearing up for the president to begin outlining more details on how he would like to structure his plan to provide private investment accounts under Social Security.
“It’s all going to be moving very fast,” said one Senate Republican leadership aide of the push for Social Security in the next few months.
Word last week was that some Republicans were prepared for a solvency-only discussion, but Roll Call also reported that this isn’t true.
Meanwhile, Senate Republican leaders clarified last week that they will not abandon their plan to include private investment accounts as part of any Social Security measure that comes before the chamber this year. A Thursday Associated Press report had indicated that Senate Republican leaders were toying with taking investment accounts off the table to get Democrats to begin negotiating.
“Personal accounts are an essential part of any reform,” said Bob Stevenson, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.). “Without personal accounts, all you have left is benefit cuts.”
Well, that and tax increases, but who’s counting.
Clearly, the GOP apparatus didn’t expect the “sales pitch” portion of this initiative to take so long and go so poorly. Nevertheless, Roll Call’s article says the White House has no exit strategy and will likely send the Hill “more specific details of his vision” by May.
Best of all, despite unambiguous pronouncements from leaders like House Speaker Dennis Hastert and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley that there’s no way to get a bill though Congress this year, these guys are still moving forward as if they don’t have a huge political problem on their hands.
During the second and third quarters [of 2005], Congress is also supposed to begin crafting legislation to have a bill passed by both chambers before Members leave for their annual August recess, the aide said. However, Republican leaders would be satisfied if Senate Finance Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has at least unveiled a bill by the end of July, the aide added.
Still, the timeline assumes that the “final floor fight” on a Social Security overhaul would occur during the fall and winter, in time to have it signed by the president by the end of the year, the aide added.
“It’s very doable that we get a bill done this year,” said Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who serves as Chief Deputy Majority Whip and sits on the Ways and Means Committee.
Their unbridled optimism is either quaint or naïve. You be the judge.
That said, conventional wisdom about the future of the GOP approach hasn’t changed at all. First, Republicans may go through the motions of appearing open to cooperation, but including private accounts in the final version is non-negotiable. And second, Dems aren’t about to fall for the scam.
“If Republicans were to come up with a way to bring Democrats to the table on a bill that doesn’t necessarily have personal retirement accounts, we wouldn’t reject that because at least Democrats would be talking,” said the Senate Republican leadership aide.
However, the aide noted that any such bill would eventually have to incorporate private accounts before being brought to the Senate floor.
“Any permanent solution that passes should include personal retirement accounts,” the aide said.
Democrats have steadfastly refused to begin talks on Social Security until Republicans stop trying to convince them and the American people to embrace personal accounts, and Democrats say they are not fooled by the Republican’s apparent plan to get them to the negotiating table only to add private investment accounts to the debate at a later date.
“In most bait-and-switch schemes, the intended target takes the bait before the switch is made,” said Rebecca Kirszner, spokeswoman for Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid. “Democrats have not taken the bait and certainly won’t fall for a switch to privatized accounts, with deep benefit cuts and massive debt.”
Stay tuned.