It was just a couple of months ago that opponents of the president’s Iraq strategy felt like the winds had finally shifted. Dems were united in opposition, polls showed strong public support for the Dems’ withdrawal policy, a growing handful of Republicans had broken ranks, and several more GOP lawmakers had expressed strong reservations about the status quo. There was a sense that the White House couldn’t stand behind failure much longer and expect the country to go along; Congress was going to force his hand.
And yet, now, as the failure of the president’s policy becomes more pronounced, the White House “is growing more confident that it can beat back efforts by Congressional Democrats to shift course in Iraq.”
A senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid upstaging the president, said there was “a sense the dynamic has changed.” […]
At least one nonpartisan analyst, Charlie Cook, the editor of The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter, says the pendulum appears to be swinging — even though the war remains hugely unpopular and Republican lawmakers are under great pressure at home to end it.
“It’s a momentum situation,” he said. “The momentum back in June and early July was really running hard against the war, and it was starting to snowball. But that snowballing stopped, and it has probably kind of reversed itself somewhat.”
I feel a bit like I’ve been watching a magic trick — I’m paying attention, watching the magician’s hands as closely as I can, and I still don’t know where the white rabbit came from. The reality-based community had the momentum, and now, apparently, the create-you-own-reality crowd does.
It seems to be one of those things that “everyone knows,” but no one knows why. Apparently, having Bill Kristol and Joe Lieberman boast of non-existent “progress” every day, all summer long, had something to do with it, though I’m not at all sure why anyone finds them credible.
But wait, say the Dems, the momentum can still shift back.
“We’ve got a series of hearings and reports due that will provide a much-needed dose of reality to the spin coming out of the White House,” [Jim Manley, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid] said. “Republicans may be breathing a sigh of relief, but the fact is, they’re headed with the president over a cliff.”
The other side doesn’t sound as if they’re worried.
Allies of the White House are encouraged, said Peter Wehner, a former policy analyst for Mr. Bush who works at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a research organization.
“I think the situation now is that people are confident the strategy is going to go forward until the spring,” he said Wednesday in an interview.
I’m not optimistic. When the White House fabricates successes, administration officials say, “See? We’re making progress.” When those successes are debunked, they say, “See? We need more time.”
If you feel like we’ve seen all of this before, and know how it turns out, we’re on the same page.