As has become a Friday tradition here, I’d like to wrap up the week with some state-by-state polling data. All of these results come from polls conducted or released in the last 7 days.
I should warn you in advance, some of these results aren’t encouraging for those of us anxious to see Kerry win in November. Kerry is leading Bush in national polls (Kerry 48, Bush 43 in a CBS poll; Kerry 49, Bush 46 in an LA Times poll), but the state trends are less encouraging right now.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Badger Poll — Bush 47, Kerry 41, Nader 5
Comment: Bush is going after Wisconsin, which has backed the Dem in each of the last four elections, but was awfully close in 2000 (0.2%). Nader support will have to fade as the campaign season progresses and people realize what’s at stake.
New Mexico (5 electoral votes)
ARG — Bush 46, Kerry 45, Nader 3
Comment: Florida wasn’t 2000’s closest race, New Mexico was (Gore won by 366 votes). As this poll shows, it’s going to be awfully close again. If Bill Richardson is on the ticket, however, it’ll be an easy Dem win.
New Hampshire (4 electoral votes)
ARG — Bush 48, Kerry 43, Nader 3
Comment: This is pretty consistent with other recent polls, showing Kerry within striking distance in this historically GOP state.
Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes)
Keystone Poll by Franklin & Marshall College — Bush 46, Kerry 40, Nader 3
Comment: Pennsylvania will be the state Bush campaigns the hardest in. His ads are already blanketing the airwaves, which helped push Kerry’s support down. Don’t panic, though; there’s likely to be a lot of fluctuation with Pennsylvania’s polls over the coming months.
Colorado (9 electoral votes)
Harstad Strategic Research — Bush 48, Kerry 43
Comment: This is about where another poll showed the state last week. Kerry will work to keep this one close in the coming months.
Connecticut (7 electoral votes)
University of Connecticut — Kerry 52, Bush 33, Nader 4
Comment: Will be about as competitive as Texas.
Idaho (4 electoral votes)
KTVB-News Channel 7 — Bush 57, Kerry 23, Nader 4
Comment: I guess Kerry’s recent snowboarding vacation didn’t boost his poll numbers.
Indiana (11 electoral votes)
Bellwether Poll — Bush 52, Kerry 37
Comment: Indiana is generally a GOP lock (it hasn’t backed a Dem presidential candidate in 30 years), but I wonder what would happen in Evan Bayh were on Kerry’s ticket?
Washington (11 electoral votes)
Rasmussen — Kerry 50, Bush 44
Comment: Washington has gone with the Dem four of the last four elections. Nobody really expects anything different this year.